why aren't all 28 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Pentagon pays Google 47 cents annually for Gemini deployment
“They were the first of the big frontier AI companies to say, we want to work at Department of Defense. They were easy to work with on the contract. We're paying 47 cents For the whole year for all of this. So they're like taking, taking a loss to make sure tha…”
Assertion Supported
The Pentagon issued an RFI for space-based missile interceptors
“We just did a RFI for space-based interceptors, which is how do you put something in space that could take something down in space.”
Assertion Partly supported
Palantir, Anduril, and SpaceX sued the government for initial major contracts
“And one of the examples I use Palantir and Roland, SpaceX, all had to sue the government for their first big contract, because the primes were sophisticated at selling, sophisticated at protecting their interests.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Michael: US military has caught up and surpassed China in many areas
“I think we're already caught up in so many areas and surpass them, but they've made a lot of ground.”
Assertion Partly supported
Pentagon deployed Google Gemini to four million personnel in two months
“Which is why in two months of owning, being the chief AI, having the chief AI office run in my world, which was a new move, we were able to launch gen AI, which is Google's Gemini for four million, every, every employee, military and civilian in the department…”
Assertion Supported
Palantir and SpaceX sued the US government for first defense contracts
“Palantir and Roland, SpaceX, all had to sue the government for the first big contract, because the primes were sophisticated at selling, sophisticated protecting their interests.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Michael: 99% of Uber Alumni Call It Their Best Career Experience
“99% of the people who went through Uber say it was the best experience of their life. What you read about is that one percent, and I think people are really longing for that culture again in business.”
Assertion Supported
Emil Michael: Uber has paid roughly $100B to drivers over time
“Uber over time has probably paid a hundred billion dollars to drivers. A hundred billion dollars.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Michael: Steve Ballmer Agreed in Two Hours to Buy Tellme for $760M
“Within two hours, we had a handshake on a deal for 707 hundred sixty million dollars. His corp dev guys were going nuts, because he was making deals on his own.”
Assertion Contradicted
Pentagon tagged Pakistani fertilizer plants to track IED supply chains
“And I was on Jieda, which is the joint IED on, you know, task force. So we would do crazy things like sprinkle markers into the fertilizer plants in Pakistan that were used to make the IEDs so we could Track them.”
Assertion Partly supported
Uber's Milan general manager faced cartel death threats and a home break-in
“We had a female general manager in Milan, and they posted her face all over the city saying, kill this woman. They snuck into her apartment at night and hung a sign from her apartment to the apartment across the road, Saying she, you know, she has a relationsh…”
Assertion Supported
Michael: Uber lost 500,000 customers during #DeleteUber campaign
“We lost half a million customers.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Emil Michael: US will innovate on AI faster than anywhere else
“The next wave of AI, which is going to produce mass efficiency, mass knowledge dissemination nowhere but here. You know, we're going to have the first of everything in this new platform that's building. If you thought about the last platform as the iPhone and …”
Assertion Partly supported
Biological organisms can produce TNT, gunpowder, and other energetics
“Biological organisms can create TNT, gunpowder, you know, energetics, if you will.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Michael: Adversaries Dump Rare Earths to Create US Tech Dependencies
“And we've been behind again because some of our adversaries have been dumping Dumping, like with rare earth metals to get us dependent on battery technologies, on critical minerals, pharmaceuticals, you name it.”
Assertion Partly supported
Missiles fired by Iran at Israel are not hypersonic or maneuverable
“Not maneuverable, but they're not going at hypersonic speeds also.”
Assertion Supported
Emil Michael says Pentagon issued RFI for space-based interceptors
“We just did an RFI for space-based interceptors, which is how do you put something in space that could take something down in space.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Michael: DoD Used Mobile Payments to Prevent Afghan Warlords Skimming Troop Pay
“So so we then did a mobile payment system so that we could pay them, they got to keep it and we would prevent the warlords from taking it, and then we sort of were able to consistently get them on their side, so they wouldn't be doing IEDs against us.”
Assertion Supported
Emil Michael: Uber raised $15 billion between June 2014 and June 2016
“We raised fifteen billion between June of 14 And June of 16. So in two years. So all that fundraising we did, I was there for four years, was concentrated in two years.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Uber launchers could not leave a city until achieving ten-minute ride liquidity
“You can't leave until you do two things. You create liquidity in that market. Liquidity meant you could get a ride in 10 minutes or less anywhere in the city. That means you have to find out where the drivers are, you have to market to consumers, you have to d…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Emil Michael: Global Citizens Still Prefer the American System Over Any Other
“If you surveyed every other person in the world who is living in America now, what's the one country they would want to live in? What system that they think is the best for their children? They would still choose this system. They wouldn't choose China, Russia…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
A Pacific conflict will force the military into extreme remote operations
“And if there's ever a conflict in, in, in the Pacific, we'll, by definition, be remote. And frankly, you know, the most remote place you could imagine.”
Assertion Contradicted
Emil Michael: Office of Strategic Capital Loans Cost Treasuries Plus 100 Bps
“So it's a basically treasuries plus a hundred bips.”
Assertion Partly supported
Emil Michael: The United States Currently Has 250 Medicines in Shortage
“We have 250 medicines on shortage in the United States.”
Assertion Supported
Every DARPA employee has their exit date on their badge
“So everyone at DARPA walks around with their exit date on their badge.”
Assertion Partly supported
Michael: United States Has 250 Medicines in Active Supply Shortages
“We have 250 medicines on shortage in the United States.”
Assertion Partly supported
Michael: DARPA employees are term-limited and carry exit dates on badges
“They're, and they're term limited. So everyone at DARPA walks around with their exit date on their badge.”
Assertion Partly supported
JPMorgan Chase will back loans from Pentagon Office of Strategic Capital
“And, you know, J.P. Morgan announced that they're gonna sort of back a lot, you know, a bunch of the Office of Strategic Capital Loans.”