The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lowery: AI-controlled battle systems will be necessary to fight drone swarms
“And in the case of this type of warfare, it's going to be necessary. The necessary decision to go forward with AI-controlled battle otherwise a man or a human in the loop won't work.”
Andy Lowery Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 14:05 Electronic Warfare and Real-Life Force Fields! Epirus CEO Andy Lowery · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Supported
Lowery: US Builds Only Dozens to One Hundred Air Missiles Monthly
“I think our entirety of our short range air missiles that we can build per month are in the dozens. Like, I think in the tens or the, or maybe end up to like a hundred. But just orders of magnitude less than what folks can build with consumer electronics.”
Andy Lowery Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 31:39 Electronic Warfare and Real-Life Force Fields! Epirus CEO Andy Lowery · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Supported
Lowery: China Can Probably Build 100,000 Small Drones Monthly
“If you talk group one and group two, China can build probably 100,000 group one and group two systems in a single month.”
Andy Lowery Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 31:56 Electronic Warfare and Real-Life Force Fields! Epirus CEO Andy Lowery · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Partly supported
Lowery: US Border Experiences Thousands of Drug Drone Incursions Without Interdiction
“They have somewhere along the lines of a couple thousand drone incursions over the border, and all we're doing today is just watching them fly on by. That's all we're doing. We're not doing a thing to them, and they're coming in, and we know they're carrying i…”
Andy Lowery Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 36:29 Electronic Warfare and Real-Life Force Fields! Epirus CEO Andy Lowery · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lowery: The US is not the world leader in hypersonics
“There are areas like hypersonics and others where we're not the best in the world”
Andy Lowery Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 43:26 Electronic Warfare and Real-Life Force Fields! Epirus CEO Andy Lowery · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Open · timeframe Aug 2027
Lowery: Epirus system achieved 100 percent defeat rate in April Army trials
“We had zero targets that we did not take down. In other words, we were 100% effective on Every single scenario and every single target that they threw at us, we had an effect on”
Andy Lowery Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 16:56 Electronic Warfare and Real-Life Force Fields! Epirus CEO Andy Lowery · Joe Lonsdale
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lowery: High-powered microwaves will definitely become a major space warfare tool
“Space is a it would be a, it's definitely a domain where high powered microwave will become a significant player in. In the near future.”
Andy Lowery Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 26:31 Electronic Warfare and Real-Life Force Fields! Epirus CEO Andy Lowery · Joe Lonsdale
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lowery: Epirus Will Enter a DoD Program of Record in 2025
“We are deploying to CENTCOM. If those deployments are successful, we will be palmed into a program or record In 20, 25.”
Andy Lowery Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 29:22 Electronic Warfare and Real-Life Force Fields! Epirus CEO Andy Lowery · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Supported
Lowery: Russia Can Build 500 Shahed Drones Per Month
“Russia, I think can build 500 shahads per month. The group three shahad, 500 per month.”
Andy Lowery Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 31:25 Electronic Warfare and Real-Life Force Fields! Epirus CEO Andy Lowery · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Supported
Lowery: Next Generation Jammer deployed aboard USS Abraham Lincoln
“And oh, by the way, Next Generation Jammer just went on its first deployment with the USS Lincoln. So now it's being shipped overseas.”
Andy Lowery Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 8:51 Electronic Warfare and Real-Life Force Fields! Epirus CEO Andy Lowery · Joe Lonsdale
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lowery: Epirus can build HPM systems effective at 10-kilometer ranges
“We're confident that we can build HPM that can have effects, very, very ubiquitous effects out at those ranges as well. Very, very confident.”
Andy Lowery Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 19:30 Electronic Warfare and Real-Life Force Fields! Epirus CEO Andy Lowery · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lowery: HPM-equipped Roadrunner could take down 10 drones per flight and recover
“So even though, ah, HPM systems are relatively expensive compared to a 30,000 dollar drone, you can actually take down maybe 10 drones a flight and then re-land and, ah, recover with a Roadrunner.”
Andy Lowery Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 22:44 Electronic Warfare and Real-Life Force Fields! Epirus CEO Andy Lowery · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Supported
Lowery: Only single-digit billions of DoD budget are flexibly reprogrammable
“What people don't say that when you boil it down to what actually is reprogrammable, it's a tiny fraction of that. It's like, I think the army has maybe a hundred and fifty million, a billion, I'm sorry, a hundred and fifty billion dollars or less to do anythi…”
Andy Lowery Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 41:05 Electronic Warfare and Real-Life Force Fields! Epirus CEO Andy Lowery · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Contradicted
Lowery: FPV drones require direct impact, making short-range microwave defenses effective
“What happens is, is a first person viewer drone with what they call a contact charge needs to drive that first person view drone all the way into impact. Cause how the contact charge works is it hits the armor And then a little spike shoots through the armor, …”
Andy Lowery Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 10:45 Electronic Warfare and Real-Life Force Fields! Epirus CEO Andy Lowery · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Supported
Lowery: Epirus delivered four systems to Army in 15 months
“So when the army gave us a contract, they said, see if we can deliver these in a couple years, two and a, it was a two and a half years actually. We delivered four systems in 15 months. I mean, just unheard of. 15 months, four full systems to the Army.”
Andy Lowery Aug 16, 2024 ▶ 18:28 Electronic Warfare and Real-Life Force Fields! Epirus CEO Andy Lowery · Joe Lonsdale
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