The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kolicich: AI is not a bubble and is probably still under-hyped
“And I think it's an emphatic, no, it's not a bubble. Probably it's still a little under hyped.”
Kolicich: AI is not a bubble and remains underhyped
“And I think it's an emphatic, no, it's not a bubble. Probably it's still a little underhyped.”
Kolicich: Existing AI models are sufficient to trigger an economic revolution
“Even if we do that, you'll still have a revolution in the economy. You'll still have a revolution in the way things happen because the, Limiting factors now are not the technology, it's diffusion of the technology into the economy.”
Kolicich: AI will force the legal industry to abandon billable hours
“That's gonna be, law's gonna be fully transformed. From really the bottom up. Like, their whole business model will have to shift. So you'll have to move from today law is sold per hour. You're gonna have, hours don't make any sense when it's agents doing work…”
Kolicich: Software's future is forward deployed engineers feeding context to LLMs
“And so the like super long-term world is it's all Context to the LLM. It's all requirements. It's all standard operating procedures, which is what FDs do. It's all changing the way people of the business operate, which is an FDE job. And that's the future of s…”
Kolicich: AI Capital Expenditures Currently Represent Only 3% to 4% of GDP
“Now in AI we're investing, like, three percent or four percent. It's like, it's not even yet on the scale of the industrial revolution.”
Kolicich: AI investment at 4% of GDP lags historical industrial revolutions
“If you look at the Industrial Revolution in Russia in the early 20th century, I think investment as a percentage of GDP got up to 20 or 25%, and then China was investing 40 or 50% in their industrial revolution of GDP, and now in AI we're investing, like, thre…”
Kolicich: 95% of Incumbent Software Companies Have Not Launched AI Products
“I've thought for a long time that would rally because you'd have existing incumbent businesses launching AI products, and you'll see that they have data gravity and they have workflow, workflow gravity. They're a great channel to sell AI to their businesses, a…”
Kolicich: ERPs and CRMs Organize Data But Cannot Assist Decision-Making
“Think of an ERP, think of a CRM. They're organizing, but they don't help you really run your business or make decisions in your business.”
Kolicich: Anthropic commands a pricing premium and healthy margins in coding
“Anthropic is frontier at coding, and so you're going to pay a premium on that, and they probably have fine gross margins on, on doing that.”
Kolicich: Frontier AI capabilities will advance while trailing capabilities get commoditized
“So I think you're going to see this trend where In at least certain domains, the big model companies are pushing the frontier in certain areas, and then everything in the wake gets commoditized.”
Kolicich: Frontier AI Companies Are Fastest-Growing of All Time
“And by the way, hold on, they're also the fastest growing companies of all time.”
Kolicich: Augment's AI Agent Augie Handles 90% to 95% of Cases Autonomously
“Augie can handle maybe 95%, 90% of cases. And when things get challenging or doesn't know what to do, it can hand off to a human.”
Kolicich: AI excels at workflows reducible to five core cognitive skills
“There's five key things that AI is good at. Like, these are the tasks. You can add one more now, computer use, but you think AI is good at multi-turn conversations, document understanding, structured output, Search and reasoning. If you can break a workflow do…”
Kolicich: NVIDIA is trading at around 25 times forward earnings
“NVIDIA is like 25 times forward earnings.”
Kolicich: AI will create massive wealth and could be massively deflationary
“I think it's going to be incredibly disruptive, but positive, create incredible amounts of wealth. You know, a lot of Sectors are going to get much more efficient. There's like very bold cases where it's massively deflationary.”