The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Wu: One 20-person USACO camp produced Wang, Guo, Ziegler, and Ho
“In my year, actually there were a ton of others who all kind of went into AI. And so obviously Steven and Andrew, who started the company you know, who started Cognition with us but also a ton of others. And so Alexander Wang, who started Scale. Demi Guo, who …”
Scott Wu Mar 27, 2026 ▶ 3:44 How AI Agents Are Creating 12X Productivity Gains · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Supported
Hoffman: OpenAI Has Already Produced Multiple Multi-Billion-Dollar Spin-Offs
“OpenAI, I mean, there's already been multiple, multi-billion dollar spin-offs of OpenAI.”
Reid Hoffman Jul 28, 2025 ▶ 39:19 Two Billionaires Debate: Should We Fear AI? · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Supported
McCord: Apple paper shows minor perturbations drop AI reasoning scores by 65%
“But then you have Apple come out with a paper that shows that if you do minor perturbations, you drop the reasoning score on these systems by like, 65%.”
Brendan McCord Dec 13, 2024 ▶ 40:36 The Terrifying Truth AI Researchers Don’t Understand · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Supported
Lonsdale: Training frontier AI models costs $14 million to $15 million
“Right now it takes, I think, about fifteen million dollars, fourteen million dollars to train these models right now.”
Joe Lonsdale Feb 16, 2022 ▶ 17:10 Reviving a Culture of Innovation with Tyler Cowen · Joe Lonsdale
Assertion Supported
Lonsdale: Portfolio legal tech startup sold to Thomson Reuters at 8x valuation
“One of them was a legal tech company. You probably don't even know this. That's partnered with open AI and suddenly sold for like eight times the last round valuation to Thomson Reuters.”
Joe Lonsdale Aug 18, 2023 ▶ 39:39 Ep 66: Bob McGrew — the Superstar Palantir Alum Leading OpenAI's Transformative Research Projects · Joe Lonsdale
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