why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Lonsdale: European regulators are banning OpenAI
“Such as the Europeans who are banning OpenAI, by the way, which is very funny for the latest launch.”
Assertion Supported
Wu: One 20-person USACO camp produced Wang, Guo, Ziegler, and Ho
“In my year, actually there were a ton of others who all kind of went into AI. And so obviously Steven and Andrew, who started the company you know, who started Cognition with us but also a ton of others. And so Alexander Wang, who started Scale. Demi Guo, who …”
Assertion Supported
Hoffman: OpenAI Has Already Produced Multiple Multi-Billion-Dollar Spin-Offs
“OpenAI, I mean, there's already been multiple, multi-billion dollar spin-offs of OpenAI.”
Assertion Supported
McCord: Apple paper shows minor perturbations drop AI reasoning scores by 65%
“But then you have Apple come out with a paper that shows that if you do minor perturbations, you drop the reasoning score on these systems by like, 65%.”
Assertion Contradicted
McGrew: OpenAI secretly trained GPT-4 in first half of 2022
“We had already then secretly trained GPT-IV. So this was the first half of last year.”
Assertion Supported
Lonsdale: Training frontier AI models costs $14 million to $15 million
“Right now it takes, I think, about fifteen million dollars, fourteen million dollars to train these models right now.”
Assertion Supported
Lonsdale: Portfolio legal tech startup sold to Thomson Reuters at 8x valuation
“One of them was a legal tech company. You probably don't even know this. That's partnered with open AI and suddenly sold for like eight times the last round valuation to Thomson Reuters.”