why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
DeWitte: Nuclear regulations are ~100 pages versus millions of guidance pages
“So the big thing we saw was we've built this massive inertia of millions of pages Of effectively regulatory guidance is what it's called. Basically recommendations on how to meet the regulations, which minds you are maybe a hundred pages or so. But you've buil…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2027
DeWitte: 15MW Oklo reactors can generate power below 4-5 cents/kWh
“It's a little more expensive, but if you move that to the 15 megawatt size range, then yeah, you can get the prices down to sort of below four, four or five cents kilowatt hour.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 2025
DeWitte: Oklo micro-reactors cost between $30M and $40M to build
“Oh, I mean you know, if you put the reactor inside of it, kind of depends a little bit on the exact sighting and how much work needs to go into it, but somewhere between 30 and forty million dollars.”
Assertion Partly supported
Churi: Oklo Reactor Reduces Waste Half-Life from 100k to 100 Years
“But when it comes out of the Oklo reactor at the end of 20 years it's only got about a hundred year half-life as opposed to about a 100,000”
Assertion Supported
Lonsdale: Oklo is first advanced fission firm with NRC-accepted COLA
“I think you're the first advanced fission company to have a combined license application accepted by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission.”
Assertion Supported
DeWitte: Oklo reactors operate up to 20 years on one fuel load
“So fuel, one load of fuel can last you up to 20 years.”
Opinion
Gebbia: Oklo and NuScale lead the deployment of carbon-free nuclear power
“So I'm super excited about Oclo and new scale and many of the others that are at the forefront of helping us create clean carbon-free energy at scale.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2027
DeWitte: Oklo reactors can achieve over 98% operational uptime
“I mean, you'll turn it off occasionally for servicing different parts of it, but you're talking about a system that's going to be up and operational more than 98% of the time, or at least has the potential to be.”
Assertion Supported
DeWitte: EBR-II safely shut itself down during 1986 total loss-of-cooling test
“In fact, on April third, 1986, they put it through these phenomenal. Like basically full scale safety system tests where they challenged this thing in, in crazy difficult ways. They ran it at full power. They locked the control rods out, the things that go in …”
Assertion Partly supported
DeWitte: EBR-II produced power at 3¢/kWh and recycled its own waste
“Mind you, it also did these really cool things where it was able to produce power at three cents kilowatt hour. And it recycled its own waste.”
Assertion Partly supported
Churi: Oklo Secured First-Ever Advanced Fission Site Permit and Fuel Grant
“And what they've just done in the past 12 months, they've not only gotten the first ever in history grant of test fuel for a advanced nuclear fission reactor, the first ever site permit for an advanced fission reactor, but most importantly, they got something …”
Insight
Churi: The Hardest Part of Building Nuclear Reactors Is Permitting
“One insight from working with Oklo on this is that the hardest part of building a nuclear reactor is not building it, it's not the physics, it's getting it permitted.”
Disclosure
DeWitte: Oklo Reactor Footprint Ranges From a Few Thousand to 15,000 Sq Ft
“So the whole plant is, you know depending on the size range, cause you can go up to a couple, you know, a couple different size points in power output, but on the order of, you know, a few thousand square feet to, you know, 15,000 square feet.”