why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ross: Foundation models will build apps targeting high-volume token usage
“Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, they're all gonna, in the same way that you probably don't want to build an email company while Google's on its arise, because they're gonna come and eat that, like, every one of these companies is looking at, where are our tokens be…”
Assertion Partly supported
Melas-Kyriazi: Claude Autonomous Task Duration Has Reached 20 Hours
“What there's a task that has a 50% chance of successful completion. How long does that task look like for a given model? I think Claude is now at like 20 hours or something like that. And it was at like, you know, one hour a year ago.”
Opinion
Kolicich: Anthropic commands a pricing premium and healthy margins in coding
“Anthropic is frontier at coding, and so you're going to pay a premium on that, and they probably have fine gross margins on, on doing that.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: Only a very limited number of startups will build frontier compute
“And there's a limited number of startups that are going to be able to do the scale compute infrastructure that is required for frontier models, right? Not zero, right? Then we open AI, obviously moving to scale Anthropic, et cetera, but it's going to be a very…”
Opinion
Scott: Anthropic, Anduril, and SpaceX will be generation-defining companies
“Anthropic and Anduril and SpaceX. These are phenomenal companies. They will be generation defining companies, and it is a good strategy to give money to ATVC and Founders Fund and Thrive to invest in these companies.”