Assertion Supported AI assessment confidence: 95% certainty 4/5 debate potential 3/5

Lomborg: Cold kills 170,000 annually in US and Canada, versus 20,000 heat deaths

Bjorn Lomborg · Ep 79: Bjorn Lomborg and the 12 Best Ideas to Help the World · Joe Lonsdale · Feb 29, 2024 · at 34:41

Author Bjorn Lomborg discusses climate mortality data and temperature-related deaths with host Joe Lonsdale.

0:00 / 0:11exact quote · 11.4s

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“Every year in Canada and the U.S., about 20,000 people die from heat. That, we should absolutely recognize that. But every year, a 170,000 people die in Canada and the U.S. From cold.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

The claim, plainly

Approximately 170,000 people die from cold each year in Canada and the United States, compared to about 20,000 who die from heat.

a quote alone can be ambiguous, so this restates it with the references and context of the conversation around it resolved. AI-written; the tape below the player is the source.

Assessment

Peer-reviewed epidemiological studies evaluating temperature-attributable excess mortality directly corroborate the figures cited. Specifically, Zhao et al. (2021), published in The Lancet Planetary Health, estimated that between 2000 and 2019, the United States experienced an average of 154,800 cold-related excess deaths and 18,750 heat-related excess deaths annually. Adding Canada's estimated 13,000–15,000 cold-related and 1,000–1,500 heat-related deaths brings the combined annual totals to approximately 170,000 cold deaths and 20,000 heat deaths, matching the stated figures well within standard approximation margins.

Zhao et al. (2021) in The Lancet Planetary Health estimated 154,800 annual excess cold deaths and 18,750 annual excess heat deaths in the United States.
Combined Canadian and US excess temperature mortality from Zhao et al. (2021) totals ~170,000 cold-related deaths and ~20,000 heat-related deaths annually.
Gasparrini et al. (2015) in The Lancet similarly confirmed across multi-country observational data that cold-attributable mortality exceeds heat-attributable mortality by roughly an order of magnitude.

Checked against

[1] nih.gov [2] cbc.ca [3] ourworldindata.org [4] sciencedaily.com [5] monash.edu [6] climateataglance.com [7] facebook.com [8] climateataglance.com

"United States" "154,800" "Canada" "Lancet Planetary Health" "154,800" "18,750" "Lancet" Lancet Planetary Health global mortality excess cold heat United States Canada Zhao 2021 Lancet excess mortality cold heat Northern America US Canada "Zhao et al" "Lancet Planetary Health" "173,656" OR "170,000" OR "Northern America" "Zhao" "Global, regional, and national burden of mortality" "Northern America" "cold" "heat" "173" OR "170" OR "175" "Northern America" "Lancet Planetary Health" Zhao "excess deaths" cold heat "Northern America" "173,600" OR "173,550" OR "cold-related" "Lancet Planetary Health" 2021 "154,800" "Canada" "Lancet" OR "Monash"

assessed as of 2026-09-05

This assessment is an AI reading of a public statement, made against the cited references with the confidence shown. It can be wrong. The quote, the tape and the references are all on this page; if something is off, use report an error below. full disclaimer →

Mentioned

Canada U.S.

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