The Wisdom Wall

“when technology changes, like, I just didn't have a concept for the smartphone. So technology was about to change quite a bit. And, and in that change, you really want to be vertically integrated because you're not pushing, uh, efficiency. You're pushing sort of product technical ability.”

“when you leave money on the table, what you're doing is you're, you're creating goodwill for your customers and you're buying the company duration, which is oftentimes the way to maximize total value, right?”

“We don't know how the future is going to unfold because the system is interacting together, and it creates what's called emergent behavior, and emergent behavior makes predicting useless in most cases, and we can have guidelines and heuristics, and those are all helpful, but As far as exact, you know, sort of outcomes…”

“You know, it's really more about resilience than it is about predicting the future. And it's about adaptability. Like biology doesn't really care that much about the future. They care about, they care about adapting to this wide range of futures, right? Like my bees don't really care if it's going to snow tomorrow.…”

“we use conviction as a synonym for overconfidence. I think that's what Really is the right way to, that's the right way to think about it. Conviction for us means, hey, I've done a ton of work, so I've got a lot of sunk costs, which means I've got bias, and I think that my view of the future is better than yours.”

“Valuation is a key piece. And this is the piece that we get every day as public investors and valuations, expensive valuations force predictions. I have to believe a lot more at 10 times sales than I do at 10 times earnings, right?”

“it's really this ecosystem approach that makes sense. No one can do all of this. It's just way too hard. It really does take a village.”

“we think investing is inherently a team sport. It's a terrible solo sport for the most part. Um, and the way we view team is our role is calling out bias in each other.”

“they're very hard to replicate, not because what they're doing so technically hard, it's hard, but it's because the breadth of what they have would take you decades to recreate.”

“Samsung is also doing logic, but, but it's, they have a different business model, right? They compete with their customers. So it's harder for their customers to trust them. Um, whereas TSMC doesn't have that conflict.”

“And the way we think about it is we can wander around not knowing what we're doing and waste 90% of that time. And 10% might be really useful and one percent might be absolutely watershed. And that's really all we're looking for. But you can't ever just get to the one percent. You have to wander around to find it.”