The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,122 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sequoia refused to raise a mulligan fund after the dot-com crash
“We interviewed Doug Leone who was, you know, one of the, I guess, two stewards ago of Sequoia, and he told us that after the dot-com crash for the Sequoia fund that was the dot-com bubble fund, every other venture firm out there, after the bubble popped, were …”
Warren Buffett's legendary Coca-Cola investment has actually underperformed the S&P 500
“He would have been better off buying the S&P Over that same time period. Including dividends over that same time period. The S and P 500 is up about 11% annually. So the famous Berkshire Hathaway Coca-Cola investment today is actually underperforming the marke…”
Google Is Only Company with Both Frontier Model and AI Silicon
“Somebody put it to me in research that if you don't have a foundational frontier model, Or you don't have an AI chip, you might just be a commodity in the AI market, and Google is the only company that has both.”
Noam Shazeer Urged Google Leadership to Replace Search with Transformer Models
“Gnome, though, immediately starts advocating to Google leadership. Hey, I think this is going to be so big, the transformer, that we should actually consider just throwing out the search index And the 10 blue links model and go all in on transforming all of Go…”
OpenAI Rushed ChatGPT Launch After Learning of Anthropic's Chatbot Plans
“So, Anthropic was working on what would become Claude, and rumors were out there, and people at OpenAI Got wind of like, oh, hey, Anthropic and Dario are working on a chat interface. We should probably do one too. And if we're gonna do one, we should probably …”
Steve Jobs Lawsuit Threats Kept Pinch-to-Zoom Off Early Android Devices
“So Steve Jobs threatens to sue Google over implementation of multi-touch gestures. And so, as a result, Android for several years doesn't have things like pinch to zoom or the sort of swipe operating system UI navigation gestures, and I'm pretty sure if you re…”
The VA's Cerner EHR rollout will take until at least 2031
“The VA system was bid out in 2017. The latest announcement from the VA about this project is that it will be live at all VA sites by, this is a direct quote, as early as 20 31.”
Rosenthal: BCCI board member N. Srinivasan bought Chennai Super Kings for $91M
“Anyway, this I think is known at the time, one of the other board members of the BCCI who would soon become the chairman of the BCCI, a gentleman named N. Srinivasan, who also is an industrialist who owns the Indian Cements Company, He buys the Chennai Super K…”
Turning Off Meta Ads Actually Reduces User Engagement in Some Markets
“There are markets in the world today where I think Meta has run this test, where if you turn off ads, In the, you know, meta family of apps products, engagement in those products actually goes down, which is just, like, freaking wild.”
Facebook Acquired Onavo to Track Competitor Network Traffic and App Usage
“Well, in 2013, Facebook acquired a small Israeli company called Onavo, and Onavo was exactly what you just said, Ben. A VPN, actually, I think it initially started as, like, a data compression tool, so if you were worried about your data plan, which was Really…”
Microsoft's Altair BASIC was the first commercial software product ever sold
“This is the first time software has ever been sold. Other than the IBM accounting machinations to protect themselves from antitrust, which was just accounting, nobody had ever sold software before. This is the first time.”
Rosenthal: Bob Mercer was primary funder of Breitbart and Cambridge Analytica
“Bob was the primary funder of Breitbart, And Cambridge Analytica, and one of the major financial backers of both the 2016 Trump campaign and the Brexit campaign in Great Britain.”
Bernard Arnault secretly accumulated Hermès shares using equity swaps over ten years.
“So in 2001, right after he lost Gucci, Bernard quietly buys an initial stake in Hermes of 4.9%.
Now I believe that was just under the threshold that they would have to disclose it under French securities regulations.
And then, here's what they do that the Herm…”
Germany directed Novo to supply insulin across Nazi-occupied Europe
“They are now essentially the official Nazi-sanctioned insulin provider for all of Nazi-occupied Europe. So, the German government basically directs Novo To massively expand production and supply insulate, you know, not only to Germany, but to France, to Poland…”
Nike Over-Supplied Retailers to Reach $126M in Air Jordan Sales
“Nike needed that first year of the Jordan deal to be a huge hit. So they stuffed the channel. They pushed so much product on retailers and through the futures program and whatnot that that's how they hit the hundred and twenty six million dollars in sales. The…”
Ferdinand Porsche Was an SS Member and Hitler Associate
“Ferdinand himself not just was a Nazi, but was a very close personal associate of Adolf Hitler. He was a member of the SS”
In 1978, Porsche Launched the 928 Intending to Replace the 911
“So in 1978, Furman introduces the Porsche nine, 28 with the stated intention that this is going to eventually replace the nine, 11.”
The SEC let Enron recognize 20 years of future cash flows immediately
“The SEC allowed them to go out to 20 years that they could collapse into today revenue.”
Ken Lay's wife dumped 500,000 shares minutes before Enron's bailout deal collapsed
“At 10:20 a.m., 10 minutes before the news comes out, Ken Lay's wife sells 500,000 shares of Enron stock that the Kenan whatever her name is, that the Lay Family Foundation held.”
Stanford's endowment blackballed Benchmark's Fund I over its 30% carry demand
“Literally almost all of these folks who are starting Benchmark, they get so angry that not only do they not invest in the fund, they start organizing against this young benchmark capital. They call up all of their peers, the other university endowments across …”
Benchmark structured $1.5 million in founder loans to win the eBay deal
“It was also reported by the Washington Post after the IPO of eBay that Benchmark had also structured Equity-backed loans to Pierre and Jeff in the amount of 750,000 dollars each as a way to, like, prevent them essentially, give them an incentive not to take th…”
Rosenthal: AWS was built to scale, not to monetize excess seasonal capacity
“The excess capacity story is a myth. It was never a matter of selling excess capacity. Actually, within two months after launch, AWS would have already burned through the excess amazon.com capacity. Amazon Web Services was always considered a business by itsel…”
Rosenthal: Amazon's engineering team in Cape Town built the original EC2
“That becomes EC two. It's that team in South Africa that builds EC two.”
Microsoft will not make Activision games Xbox exclusive following the acquisition
“People are worried about with the Activision deal about whether Microsoft would make Activision's games exclusive on Xbox. I don't think they will.”
Ithaca Holdings Sold Taylor Swift's Catalog to Shamrock for $300 Million
“Big Machine, the operating company, all the other masters of other artists, they have everything that stays with Ithaca Holdings. They sell only the Taylor masters to a private equity firm for about three hundred million dollars. So about the same price that t…”
Rosenthal: Home Depot agreed to historic gender discrimination settlement in 1997
“So first, that same year in 1997, the company agreed to one of the largest corporate gender discrimination lawsuit settlements in history up to that point.”
Rosenthal: Home Depot customer satisfaction fell to lowest among major US retailers
“So a couple of years into Nardelli's tenure, customer satisfaction among Home Depot shoppers falls to the lowest level of any major US retailer.”
Rosenthal: Home Depot paid Bob Nardelli roughly $200 million over six years
“Nardelli also gets paid roughly two hundred million dollars by the board over the six years of his tenure running Home Depot.”
Rosenthal: Home Depot authorized $20B in buybacks and dividends without stock gains
“During Nardelli's tenure, he authorizes twenty billion dollars in share buybacks and dividends. That doesn't even move the stock price.”
The Lion King musical is history's highest-grossing single entertainment product
“The Lion King musical has grossed over eleven billion dollars in total revenue in its run, which I think makes it the single highest grossing entertainment product in history, in any medium, film, music, TV, video games, other Broadway shows.”
Pixar's IPO made Steve Jobs a billionaire, creating more wealth than Apple
“Pixar closes its first day of trading, At a one and a half billion dollar market cap, this is how big a hit Toy Story was and how much it was in the public consciousness. This is how Steve Jobs becomes a billionaire... He didn't make anywhere near that kind of…”
Disney merchandise royalties surpassed film rental revenue by 1934
“It wasn't even by the late 19 thirties. It was 1934.”
Walt Disney formed a private entity to build Disneyland after board rejection
“He is the Walt Disney who Has come up with a crazy new idea based on his obsessive hobby with model trains that the board of Disney Studios has basically rejected. And so he has gone full crackpot like Colonel Kurtz style and started his own separate company o…”
The famous Disney flywheel sketch was drawn for the Wall Street Journal
“So the legend that's out there that everybody believes is that this was a napkin sketch that Walt himself drew. No, it was actually created Buy a Disney Studio artist as an illustration for this Wall Street Journal piece.”
Rosenthal: The Lamborghini Urus shares its platform with the VW Touareg
“The Lamborghini Urus, the Lamborghini SUV, that is the same platform as the Porsche Cayenne, which is the same platform as the Volkswagen Touareg. When you buy a Lamborghini Urus, you are buying a car that is essentially a Volkswagen Touareg.”
Fiat paid virtually zero equity value to acquire Chrysler
“Fiat paid either zero or almost zero in sort of equity value for Chrysler.”
Court Records Revealed Bernie Ecclestone Skimmed an 8% Formula 1 Revenue Fee
“Nobody writes anything down, because Bernie never writes anything down, and when the dust finally gets settled, and many decades later, all of the books and stuff become public through a whole series of court cases, turns out Bernie's actually taking eight per…”
Bernie Ecclestone Bought the FIA's Formula 1 TV Rights for Under $10M
“Rather than you taking 30%, I'll pay you five million dollars a year, going up by one million every year, up to nine million at the end of this term, in exchange for your percentage of the TV.”
Russia Paid Formula 1 $50 Million Annually to Host the Sochi Race
“So they sign a deal with Russia. And of course it's a deal with the state. You know, anytime you're negotiating with Russia, you're negotiating with the state. To construct a new two hundred and seventy million dollar F-one track around the Olympic Park. And p…”
Only 23% of Gen Z consider the NFL their favorite sport
“And if you look at the data, US adults as a whole, 33% say the NFL is their favorite professional sports league. But if you look at Gen Z, only 23% of Gen Z say That the NFL is their favorite professional sport, so 10 points less than the broader population, a…”
The NFL traded NFL Network to ESPN for a 10% equity stake
“So August, 20, 25, the NFL reached a deal with Disney and ESPN to essentially sell the NFL network, the NFL's cable network and the NFL's official fantasy app to ESPN for a 10% equity stake in all of ESPN in return for this swap.”
The NFL skims a share of private equity exit returns for all owners
“Upon any eventual sale or monetization of the ownership stake that private equity would have in an NFL franchise, A portion of the returns on that investment get skimmed off the top and go back to the NFL and then get distributed equally among all 32 NFL team …”
Rosenthal: Coca-Cola's Robert Woodruff backed segregationist politicians in the 1940s
“In fact, Robert Woodruff was openly supporting segregationist politicians during this time.”
Late 1950s McCann taste tests showed consumers preferred Pepsi over Coke
“Consumers, when presented with the two drinks, Coke and Pepsi, in a blind taste test, a statistically significant number of people prefer Pepsi. The taste of Pepsi.”
New Coke actually beat original Coke and Pepsi in blind taste tests
“They've done tons of taste tests. Not only does it beat Pepsi in taste tests, it beats original Coke. People prefer the taste of new Coke.”
Coca-Cola labeled the original formula 'Classic' to renegotiate its bottler contracts
“And Coke and their lawyers ultimately decide That if they keep new Coke on the market as the official Coke, and they call the old Coke, Coca-Cola classic. They can make an argument to all the bottlers. The Coca-Cola classic is a new drink.”
Astro Teller: Google Brain Gains More Than Funded All Google X Bets
“Astro Teller, who would take over running Google X after Sebastian Thrun left, he would get quoted in the New York Times in a profile of Google X that the gains to Google's core businesses in search and ads and YouTube from Google Brain Have way more than fund…”