The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 32 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Thompson: Micropayments Fail Due to Timing Mismatch Between Investment and Revenue
“From a microtransaction perspective, I think one of the issues is To create the piece of content is very time consuming. And then obviously you get the free distribution on the back ends. You have zero marginal cost on the back end. But the problem is you have…”
Thompson: Apple University was driven by Tim Cook, not Steve Jobs
“What is interesting is it was written a lot about as this sort of Steve jobs initiative and, you know, I'm sure he okayed it, but he had basically no involvement at all. Tim cook was very heavily involved.”
Thompson: Social media's value is giving readers a sharing platform
“If you have a new business model with a very low cost structure, Social media is a godsend because you basically get free marketing. What a lot of people don't understand is I think a lot of writers give away way too much content on Twitter and they're out the…”
Thompson: Twitter Should Have Had Disappearing Tweets from Day One
“I think actually one of the biggest mistakes Twitter made, and it's understandable. No one could have seen it at the time, but Twitter should have had disappearing tweets from day one. It should have always been a just in the moment sort of social network. I t…”
Thompson: Apple's privacy changes enhanced Meta's long-term ad moat
“The Apple changes were very devastating, and they're structurally devastating, and so they deserve a significant haircut on their valuation because of that, but I also think they were moat-enhancing in the long run, where I question whether any other company i…”
Thompson: TSMC cannot hedge against Taiwan geopolitical risk
“A core to their model, essential to the model of being so flexible, being so adaptive of incorporating new equipment of accommodating hundreds and hundreds or thousands of customers is all their engineering's in one place. And that. Place is Taiwan and that ha…”
Thompson: Subscriptions Work Because Upfront Revenue Funds Creation Instead of Speculating
“Subscription pricing does make much more sense for content production, because in this case, you're actually getting the money upfront. The money is funding the work as opposed to the work Being a speculative bid for the money.”
Thompson: Niche differentiated content should monetize via subscriptions, not ads
“If you produce super highly differentiated content, that is something that. Is not going to appeal to the whole world, but to the people who like it, they'll really like it, and if you have that sort of audience, you should maximize your revenue per user, and …”
Thompson: Nothing visually about Substack is memorable
“Nothing visually about Substack is memorable. Every single site looks the same. And also they'll be reading a post and I'll have to like bring down the address bar number. Who am I reading again?”
Thompson Explored Building a Substack Equivalent Before It Launched
“I actually thought about building a sub stack a few years before they launched. I actually had a team together and it ended up falling apart, but my big hesitation was always, I just wasn't sure if it would be venture scale.”
Thompson: Meta's targeted ads are essential for niche online businesses
“And actually one of the reasons I actually am in general favorable towards meta is I think they're an essential component in the broader ecosystem of niche businesses, because if the entire world is your audience, how does the world find out about you? I'm luc…”
Thompson: The internet creates an economic barbell of giant or niche businesses
“What the internet does do in industry after industry, I think this applies to creative talent as much as anything else is number one, there's always a barbell effect. You're either very large or very small, you're very large, you get scale, you get aggregation…”
Thompson: Coining 'Aggregation Theory' Was What Made the Concept Stick
“This is actually an example of the power of branding. I wrote articles that were basically aggregation theory well before I wrote aggregation theory, but giving it a term and coining it is what made it stick.”
Thompson: EUV lithography has only 5 to 6 years left
“EUV has another five, six years, and then it's not super clear what's after that.”
Thompson: Roughly 70% of Stratechery Subscribers Pay Annually
“I think my audience at this point is like 70% annual subscriptions.”
Thompson: Journalism Reports Facts, Analysis Explains, Opinion Argues
“I think about journalists as sort of writing about what is happening at best, uncovering facts. Analysis is explaining why it happened, and opinion is some aspect of saying what you think should happen.”
Thompson: Substack's seed deck pitched 'Stratechery in a box'
“Substack's seed deck says Shackery in a box. That was their pitch.”
Thompson: Paid Stratechery subscribers tracked as fixed percentage of Twitter followers
“For a long time, my percentage of subscribers actually followed was a fixed percentage of my Twitter followers.”
Thompson: Word-of-mouth businesses face linear growth limits as referral networks exhaust
“The problem with a word of mouth business and exponential growth is people run out of people to talk to. And so that's the limiting factor.”
Thompson: Early newsletter subscribers held back fearing solo publications would shut down
“What I was wrong about is that the vast majority of people thought I would fail and go out of business. They didn't want to lose their money. And so they didn't subscribe, but once it was clear, I would be an ongoing entity. Then like, oh, okay, I guess my mon…”
Thompson: Rude Stratechery subscribers get full refunds and permanent bans
“In fact, if someone comes back and if they are just over the top rude or disrespectful or insinuating things about me, I will not just cancel their subscription. I will refund them their entire purchase and say, please just never come back.”
Thompson: Podcasts are much harder to grow virally than written content
“The problem is people don't share podcasts, right? You listen to a podcast, you go to the next podcast, you do X, Y, Z. Whereas if you're reading something, it's super easy to tweet it or to forward the email.”
Thompson: Online success comes from finding new niche ponds, not competing
“The key to success on the internet is you want to be the biggest fish in the pond, but the success metric is not competing with other fish. It's finding your own pond. The opportunity is broad. It's not deep. Like in each pond, there's probably gonna be one or…”
Thompson: An Analyst's Edge on Market Trends Lasts Only Months to Years
“The edge you can provide is usually measured in sort of months or years or a very low number of years.”
Thompson: CEOs crave external feedback because internal incentives breed sycophancy
“CEOs are surrounded by people telling them what they want to hear. That's their incentives, right? The reason why the VP is attacking me is because he's worried I'm going to make the VP look bad in front of the CEO, right? That's the concern. Whereas the CEO i…”
Thompson: High-profile executive interviews do not drive Stratechery subscriptions
“The reality is interviews don't drive subscriptions. And so I do it because again, I want to push the tech product. I want people to use my podcast product.”
Thompson: Stratechery makes an explicit choice not to break news
“I really try to not break news. That's actually an explicit choice on my side.”
Thompson: Daring Fireball link tripled Twitter followers within 12 hours
“I had 500 Twitter followers when he posted that, and within 12 hours I had 1500 Twitter followers.”
Thompson: Stratechery gained 250 subscribers in 24 hours after hitting 1,000
“In November, I put a little post out. First, I simplified my model. I said, no more of this 300 level, cheap level, one price and one product. That's all you're getting. And then number two, I'm like, hey, I got a thousand subscribers. Business model works. Yo…”
Thompson: Stratechery tokenizes internal email links one level deep
“Every link to myself in a strategy email is tokenized and that token goes one link deep. So even if that email is forwarded to you can go read old stuff.”