The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 20 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Microsoft Would Have Won Mobile OS Licensing Without Google Buying Android
“If they don't buy Android and they don't get started basically in the month that they did, this market belongs to Microsoft.”
Gilbert: Microsoft's 1997 Office commitment and investment saved Apple from bankruptcy
“Which, by the way, saved Apple. The company would have been completely out of business because it was so existentially important to anyone using an Apple computer to use Office that if Office, you know, Microsoft decides, oh, we're gonna stop developing Office…”
Gilbert: Microsoft would have missed mobile regardless of the DOJ antitrust case
“Even without the whole DOJ thing, Microsoft probably would have visted themselves. Microsoft almost certainly would have missed mobile because there's no chance they would have realized that the business model that Google had Meant that they were gonna win in …”
Dying before building EPCOT metropolis likely protected Walt Disney's legacy
“It just doesn't make sense to me, and it may have protected his legacy that he didn't live another 10 or 20 years to see this through.”
Gilbert: Coca-Cola would be worse off today without New Coke
“I think Coca-Cola would be worse off today if they didn't go through the new Coke moment, which is crazy to say, but I guess we don't have the counterfactual, but if you just look at the data on the resurgence in Coke afterwards, you couldn't have come up with…”
Public markets would value Epic Systems near $100 billion
“My guess is if this is public, which it never will be, investors would value it somewhere in the hundred billion dollar neighborhood, giving Judy's shares a value of about fifty billion dollars and making her the wealthiest self-made woman in the world and one…”
Gilbert: Rolex would probably rank among the world's top 50 companies
“And so if this thing were to publicly trade, listing with its assets, It's probably top 50 companies in the world.”
Gilbert: TikTok could have disrupted Meta without FAIR's AI research foundation
“If not for FAIR, TikTok could have disrupted Facebook.”
Gilbert: Zuckerberg's post-2016 leadership mirrors Gates staying through DOJ antitrust fallout
“Zuck, after all the 2016 election fallout, and the shift in public perception, and having to do all this testifying, Is like watching an alternate future for Microsoft where Bill Gates had decided to stay at the helm instead of leaving after the DOJ case.”
Without Lockheed in Silicon Valley, Apple Would Not Exist
“No Lockheed, no Woz in Silicon Valley, no Apple.”
Gilbert: Enron Online could have achieved Citadel-like information advantage
“I think that Enron Online was a real way that they could have gotten real market power. I'm trying to think what that is. It's probably cornered resource. They would have had better access to information about the market than anyone else. It's almost like the …”
Taylor Swift and Kanye West Are Both Better Off From 2009 VMAs
“Both of them are way better off today than if this never happened.”
The global oil industry would look identical today without Standard Oil
“I think the world would end up in no no different of a place. I think it would have been totally net even. And the only difference would be that the, you know, Rockefeller family foundation wouldn't be as large. I think give or take a few years, I think the wh…”
Gilbert: Indexing the full web would cost hundreds of millions by late 1990s
“Even one year later would have been tens of millions of dollars, and within a couple years would have been hundreds of millions of dollars.”
Gilbert: Google would have rejected Eric Schmidt if he used a heavy hand
“It was so uniquely googly that there would have been organ rejection if Eric tried to take a heavier hand.”
Gilbert: Rolex would only be a 'good' business today if it adopted quartz
“And so I think if they had gone quartz, Rolex would be fine today. That would be a way to build a good business. But the way to potentially build a great business was to try this crazy Blancpain-esque strategy, but at scale with one of the biggest and most suc…”
Ferrari Cannot Maintain Its Profit Margins at Porsche's Volume
“Ferrari couldn't make the number of cars that Porsche does and maintain those margins, so that's not really a fair, like, direct comparison in terms of who their competitor is.”
eBay might have become a non-profit resource if not for server costs
“It is funny that like if Pierre hadn't Needed to pay for the server costs. There's a really good chance this could have gone the way of the Linux foundation or Craigslist. And I know Craigslist is a real business now, but like it could have been Wikipedia coul…”