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Michael Mauboussin

Head of Consilient Research, Counterpoint Global · 1 appearance on the record.

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Michael Mauboussin is Head of Consilient Research at Counterpoint Global and an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School. He is known for his research on decision-making, capital allocation, skill versus luck, and analyzing competitive moats.

32statements → 11claims → 10claims resolved → 100%fully supported → 3.91/5average certainty → 1.81/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated → 17said about them ↓

10 supported 0 partly supported 0 contradicted 1 not checkable as stated how the 11 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

1 prediction · 10 assertions · 1 opinion · 20 insights · every statement was checked. The prediction and assertions are the 11 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 10 are resolved, and 1 names no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Michael argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Mauboussin: Tesla's Stock Surge Saved Its Underlying Business Fundamentals
“So I think that it was not too many years ago that, that Tesla was sort of skating on thin ice in terms of finances and so forth. And then as a stock took on a life of its own, the stock went up a lot that allowed them to raise capital and get themselves on mu…”
Michael Mauboussin Oct 5, 2021 ▶ 45:54 Michael Mauboussin Master Class — Moats, Skill, Luck, Decision Making and a Whole Lot More · Acquired

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Michael Mauboussin on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

Everything Michael Mauboussin said on Acquired that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Insight
Mauboussin: Investors Should Seek Niches Where They Are the Smartest
“If it's investing, the answer is try to find a game where you think you can be the smartest person, have the opportunity to be the smartest person in the room.”
Michael Mauboussin Oct 5, 2021 ▶ 1:22:04 Michael Mauboussin Master Class — Moats, Skill, Luck, Decision Making and a Whole Lot More · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Mauboussin: 2001's Top 10 Companies Excluding Microsoft Lost $460B Over 20 Years
“So if you took Microsoft out, so you bought the other nine turns out their market capitalizations are down It's about four hundred and sixty billion dollars in the 20 year period.”
Michael Mauboussin Oct 5, 2021 ▶ 1:26:47 Michael Mauboussin Master Class — Moats, Skill, Luck, Decision Making and a Whole Lot More · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Mauboussin: Two of 2021's Top 10 Public Companies Weren't Founded in 2001
“Interestingly, by the way, three of the top 10 companies today were not public in 2001, and two of the top 10 were not founded, had not been founded yet.”
Michael Mauboussin Oct 5, 2021 ▶ 1:27:20 Michael Mauboussin Master Class — Moats, Skill, Luck, Decision Making and a Whole Lot More · Acquired
Insight
Mauboussin: Low-Cost Producers Rely on High Capital Velocity
“Low cost producers tend to have low margins and high capital velocity.”
Michael Mauboussin Oct 5, 2021 ▶ 32:03 Michael Mauboussin Master Class — Moats, Skill, Luck, Decision Making and a Whole Lot More · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Mauboussin: The Median Venture Capital Deal Earns No Return
“The median Venture deal earns nothing. And many venture deals lose money, but the tails are super extreme.”
Michael Mauboussin Oct 5, 2021 ▶ 41:16 Michael Mauboussin Master Class — Moats, Skill, Luck, Decision Making and a Whole Lot More · Acquired
Insight
Mauboussin: Journaling Probabilistic Forecasts Provides an Essential Decision Scoring System
“Probabilistically, if you can write down, I think there's an X percent probability. This is going to happen by Y date. It gives you the apparatus for a scoring system that can be super helpful.”
Michael Mauboussin Oct 5, 2021 ▶ 55:15 Michael Mauboussin Master Class — Moats, Skill, Luck, Decision Making and a Whole Lot More · Acquired
Insight
Mauboussin: Rate of Mean Regression Depends on the Skill-Luck Continuum
“So you can actually figure out not just, we all know that regression toward the mean happens, but you can actually figure out the rate at which it happens by understanding sort of where you fall in this continuum, which is super cool. It's a very powerful ment…”
Michael Mauboussin Oct 5, 2021 ▶ 1:09:01 Michael Mauboussin Master Class — Moats, Skill, Luck, Decision Making and a Whole Lot More · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Mauboussin: Microsoft Was the Only 2001 Top 10 Company Remaining in 2021
“So Microsoft is the only company that made the list both times.”
Michael Mauboussin Oct 5, 2021 ▶ 1:26:28 Michael Mauboussin Master Class — Moats, Skill, Luck, Decision Making and a Whole Lot More · Acquired

The other half of the tape: Michael Mauboussin's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 16 times in 6 episodes on Acquired. 1 statement on the record names them. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Ben Gilbert 8David Rosenthal 6Brinton Johns 2

Statements about Michael Mauboussin, by other people (1)

Opinion
Gilbert: Venture Capitalists Historically Lack Financial Investing Fundamentals
“For the longest time, venture capital investors have not had a financial investing fundamentals background. They often come from being entrepreneurs and, you know, not, not necessarily the original VCs, but a recent trend. And so you have people that don't hav…”
Ben Gilbert Oct 5, 2021 ▶ 21:13 Michael Mauboussin Master Class — Moats, Skill, Luck, Decision Making and a Whole Lot More · Acquired

Every mention by year

tap a year for its mentions
008315520212022episodesmentions
03520212022episodes it came up in
0022.54520212022episodesmentions per episode
2022 12 mentions in 5 episodes 2 per episode
2021 4 mentions in 1 episode

Appearances (1)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Michael Mauboussin Master Class — Moats, Skill, Luck, Decision Making and a Whole Lot More Oct 5, 2021 59m
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