why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wu: Public company manages $1B in usage billing entirely by hand
“We're talking to a company last week, a public company, they're in like a billion dollars in usage-based spend through enterprise contracts. All of that billion dollars is handled by hand.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wu: Dropbox's top 1% usage customers were margin negative
“The commercial model of Dropbox incentivized, it was a team-based thing, number of users. It incentivized us to get really good at getting a wall-to-wall deployment. Did not incentivize us at all to drive incremental usage. In fact, in a very literal sense, yo…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wu: AI startups are capping gross margins at 20% via cost-plus pricing
“Actually, one of the things that's really fascinating is you'll see companies that are actually, their pricing model is like a cost plus model in this moment, where basically they just fix their margin. And then they basically say, look, we just, we're going t…”
Assertion Supported
Wu: Salesforce changed its fundamental pricing structure three times in 12 months
“Agent force, like literally Salesforce, one of the biggest companies in the world changes fundamental pricing structure three times in the past 12 months.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wu: Dropbox's billing system was continuously handed off to summer interns
“Like at Dropbox, for instance, our billing system was built by interns every summer. Like it would get updated every summer because the only people we could convince to work on it were like interns.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wu: Metronome requires CEO involvement for sales deals to proceed
“When we're talking to a sales deal, if I can't talk to the CEO of that company, it's not a real deal because the CEO has to be like, I'm going to take the hard path.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wu: Salesforce tests roughly a thousand pricing variants behind the scenes
“You even see exploration within, take a large company, take a Salesforce. Behind the scenes, they have their like list price. They have like a thousand variants in production, trying different things out, looking for the one that's going to stick and drive the…”
Assertion Supported
Scott Wu: Intercom offers a $1M refund guarantee for Fin AI agent
“Actually, I was literally, as I was driving down here, I saw the intercom. They have this fin product, which is an AI agent in it. It does auto resolution of things like the auto resolution of customer support. They're like, cool. We have benchmarked this like…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Scott Wu: Autonomous AI agents will prefer usage-based pricing
“And in the agent world, Agents actually don't care about complexity. They just care about optimal price. And so that they're gonna favor that, that, that kind of model.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wu: Taking 18 months to adjust SaaS pricing will leave companies outmoded
“And so if you're the one sitting there, startups on the one hand are kind of like Cannibalizing or rewriting your market, and you're sitting on a pricing change that you're gonna sit, and you're gonna do a nine month case study, and then roll it out after six …”
Assertion Supported
Scott Wu: Salesforce combines seat fees with usage pricing for Agentforce
“Salesforce, for instance, you know, they went and like added this agent for stuff. They still have per user access fees, but now the agent forces is variable cost on top that allows them to like, if the agents actually are providing value, now my business will…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wu: Segment lost $80K in uncollectible fees from customer misconfiguration
“We talked to segment five years ago. And they were one of the first pioneers of this stuff. And they had some small startup in India with like, 3000 dollars in their business, in their account. They turned on Segment, and then they sent them a bill at the end …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wu: Most usage-based SaaS companies misalign sales commissions and revenue
“Most people just, like, they get the worst of both worlds. They basically pay you out for the million dollar contract. And then they only get to recognize revenue when the usage is accrued.”
Prediction Held up
Scott Wu: Human-Facing SaaS Models Will Be Hybrid Near-Term
“I would say the layer where humans are actually interacting. I think the dominant model, at least for the next couple of years, is going to be hybrid.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Scott Wu: Enterprise SaaS Will Shift Toward Pure Usage Pricing
“And then enterprise, I think will just become closer to pure usage because basically a scaling fee that grows with your headcount is kind of like incentive disaligned with like most CFOs.”