The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Cass: Trump's tariffs will boost US manufacturing output within years
“I think if the long run is you know, anywhere upwards of a few years, I think it will. I think the question is how long does it take to actually change investment decisions? And then how long does it take investments to come online? But I would expect to see t…”
Cass: Economic consensus warnings of instant tariff doom were wrong
“Everything from, you know, the direction of the dollar to the performance of the stock market, to the level of retaliation we should expect. There was a sort of consensus Model of here's what's going to happen if you impose tariffs and why it's extreme. It's a…”
Cass: A 10 percent baseline tariff would protect domestic production
“My view has always been that a baseline tariff on the order of 10% is a sort of skewing of the playing field in international trade in a way that helpfully reflects a preference for domestic production. And that if you could do it in a way that actually had lo…”
Cass: Free trade with non-market economies hinders free markets
“If you are attempt to be for free trade with a non-market economy, you are not actually advancing free markets in any significant way at all. You're actually dramatically hindering them.”
Cass: Tariffs require legislated multi-year stability to drive long-term investment
“What Noah had just said about some of these other factors that, that I think are really important as well, because you know, I think both in terms of what it takes on tariff policy, if you really want these tariffs to work, stability and certainty is, is, is i…”
Cass: Tariffs fail if manufacturing investment does not rebound within years
“If a couple of years from now you are not seeing the investment response, and either we can't do the workforce stuff, or for political economy reasons, It is not feasible for us to do that stuff. Then I would be the first to admit this is apparently not an eff…”
Cass: Prioritizing profit maximization and efficiency produces unequal economic outcomes
“So our view is that I think we have seen a sort of excessive faith in markets and excessive assumption that whatever pursues, you know, whatever produces efficiency, whatever maximizes corporate profits, that that too will be best for everybody. And that, that…”
Cass: Strategic state policy, not natural resources, creates manufacturing dominance
“A good example is, you know, there's nothing about Taiwan's, there's no special silicon on Taiwan's beaches. That make it the best place to fabricate advanced semiconductors. And so if you are expecting to just see everybody kind of having natural advantage in…”
Cass: High tariffs and protectionism built historic US industry
“America had very high tariffs and built its domestic industry behind a wall of protectionism. America aggressively restricted immigration. America had quite aggressive industrial policy and so on and so forth.”
Cass: The CHIPS Act was a highly effective domestic investment policy
“The CHIPS Act that, you know, I've often highlighted was dollar for dollar an extremely effective way to start boosting investment.”
Cass: US trade imbalance with key allies equals China relative to GDP
“Relative to their GDP, our trade imbalance with them is, is as large as it is with China.”
Cass: US industrial output has flatlined since 2007
“The trajectory of US industrial output, which has essentially flatlined since 2007.”