Oren Cass, founder and chief economist of American Compass, argues against free trade policy with non-market economies like China during a debate on tariffs and industrial policy.
“If you are attempt to be for free trade with a non-market economy, you are not actually advancing free markets in any significant way at all. You're actually dramatically hindering them.”
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More from Oren Cass
PredictionOpen · timeframe Aug 2028
Cass: Trump's tariffs will boost US manufacturing output within years
“I think if the long run is you know, anywhere upwards of a few years, I think it will. I think the question is how long does it take to actually change investment decisions? And then how long does it take investments to come online? But I would expect to see t…”
Oren CassAug 20, 2025▶ 10:42Oren Cass & Noah Smith Debate the True Impact of Tariffs
Opinion
Cass: Economic consensus warnings of instant tariff doom were wrong
“Everything from, you know, the direction of the dollar to the performance of the stock market, to the level of retaliation we should expect. There was a sort of consensus Model of here's what's going to happen if you impose tariffs and why it's extreme. It's a…”
Oren CassAug 20, 2025▶ 20:25Oren Cass & Noah Smith Debate the True Impact of Tariffs
Opinion
Cass: A 10 percent baseline tariff would protect domestic production
“My view has always been that a baseline tariff on the order of 10% is a sort of skewing of the playing field in international trade in a way that helpfully reflects a preference for domestic production. And that if you could do it in a way that actually had lo…”
Oren CassAug 20, 2025▶ 1:08:44Oren Cass & Noah Smith Debate the True Impact of Tariffs
Insight
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“What Noah had just said about some of these other factors that, that I think are really important as well, because you know, I think both in terms of what it takes on tariff policy, if you really want these tariffs to work, stability and certainty is, is, is i…”
Oren CassAug 20, 2025▶ 31:10Oren Cass & Noah Smith Debate the True Impact of Tariffs
PredictionNot checkable as stated
Cass: Tariffs fail if manufacturing investment does not rebound within years
“If a couple of years from now you are not seeing the investment response, and either we can't do the workforce stuff, or for political economy reasons, It is not feasible for us to do that stuff. Then I would be the first to admit this is apparently not an eff…”
Oren CassAug 20, 2025▶ 1:11:34Oren Cass & Noah Smith Debate the True Impact of Tariffs
Opinion
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“So our view is that I think we have seen a sort of excessive faith in markets and excessive assumption that whatever pursues, you know, whatever produces efficiency, whatever maximizes corporate profits, that that too will be best for everybody. And that, that…”
Oren CassAug 20, 2025▶ 2:22Oren Cass & Noah Smith Debate the True Impact of Tariffs
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