The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 90 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Moore: Perplexity Comet browser launch traffic surpassed ChatGPT Atlas
“If you look at the data, like the spike at launch and the sustained traffic for Comet was actually much higher than for ChatGBT's own browser launch, Atlas, which is kind of crazy given how much more distribution ChatGBT has than Perplexity.”
Olivia Moore Dec 29, 2025 ▶ 11:02 Where does consumer AI stand at the end of 2025?
Assertion Supported
Olivia Moore: Studies show Replika AI app reduces depression and anxiety
“Actual studies were showing depression and anxiety and kind of suicidal ideation were going down in users.”
Olivia Moore Jun 6, 2025 ▶ 36:39 The State of Consumer Tech in the Age of AI
Assertion Supported
Uncensored AI companion apps can reach 20 million monthly web visits
“They're growing, but maybe not the zero to twenty million monthly web visits that some of these uncensored companion apps can get.”
Olivia Moore Jun 4, 2024 ▶ 7:32 The Top 100 GenAI Consumer Apps
Assertion Supported
Moore: ChatGPT Is 30x Larger Than Claude on Web, 80x on Mobile
“On web, they're 2.7 times bigger than Gemini. On mobile, they're 2.5 times bigger than Gemini. And then, despite, again, like, the kind of tech Twitter discourse Claude, they're almost 30 times bigger than Claude on web, and almost 80 times bigger than Claude …”
Olivia Moore Mar 10, 2026 ▶ 2:29 Inside a16z’s Top 100 AI Apps Report with Olivia Moore
Assertion Partly supported
Moore: Singapore Ranks #1 in Per-Capita AI Adoption, US Ranks #20
“So Singapore is number one. Then Hong Kong, then the UAE, then South Korea. The US is down at number 20, so not super low, not incredibly high. Russia and China are, like, very far down the list, like, sub 50.”
Olivia Moore Mar 10, 2026 ▶ 14:48 Inside a16z’s Top 100 AI Apps Report with Olivia Moore
Assertion Supported
Moore: US Public Trust in AI Stands at Only 32%
“There was actually a big survey last year from Edelman the global media company. And the US had a fairly low rate of trust in AI. It was like, 32%.”
Olivia Moore Mar 10, 2026 ▶ 15:52 Inside a16z’s Top 100 AI Apps Report with Olivia Moore
Assertion Supported
Moore: Roughly One-Third of Americans Use AI Tools Monthly
“Like in the US, it's around probably a third of people are, Monthly active users of something like a ChatGPT.”
Olivia Moore Mar 10, 2026 ▶ 16:42 Inside a16z’s Top 100 AI Apps Report with Olivia Moore
Assertion Supported
Moore: Manus Grew to $100M-$200M ARR in 6 to 9 Months
“The ramp that they reported from like zero to a 100,000,200 million ARR in the span of like, honestly, six, nine months is, is really kind of best in class.”
Olivia Moore Mar 10, 2026 ▶ 26:48 Inside a16z’s Top 100 AI Apps Report with Olivia Moore
Assertion Supported
Olivia Moore: Less than 10% of ChatGPT users tried rival LLMs in 2025
“For most of the year, less than 10% of ChatGPT users even visited another one of the big LLM providers.”
Olivia Moore Dec 29, 2025 ▶ 1:15 Where does consumer AI stand at the end of 2025?
Assertion Supported
Olivia Moore: Gemini hits 50% of ChatGPT scale on Android, 17% on iOS
“Like, if you look at Android, Gemini is at, like, 50% of ChatGPT's scale on mobile, whereas on iOS it's, like, 17%.”
Olivia Moore Dec 29, 2025 ▶ 13:03 Where does consumer AI stand at the end of 2025?
Assertion Supported
Google Gemini reaches half of ChatGPT's mobile app traffic
“Gemini was number two. It was right behind ChatGPT. It has just about 10% of ChatGPT's traffic on web, but it's much closer on mobile. It's like half of ChatGPT's traffic on the mobile app, which is interesting. It's mostly Android users, which I think you wou…”
Olivia Moore Aug 27, 2025 ▶ 4:28 The Top 100 Most Used AI Apps in 2025
Assertion Supported
Manus hits $90M ARR with top traffic from Brazil and US
“Manus is a great example. They just announced a ninety million annualized run rate. And if you look at their traffic, it's number one Brazil, number two US, and number three China.”
Olivia Moore Aug 27, 2025 ▶ 9:48 The Top 100 Most Used AI Apps in 2025
Prediction Held up
Moore: Google's Veo 2 video model likely releasing in 3-6 months
“I think we'll see even more of a shake-up here, because VO-II is the new Google model that is even next level beyond that, from what we've seen in testing, and that is probably finally gonna hopefully come out in the next, you know, three or six months.”
Olivia Moore Mar 26, 2025 ▶ 9:12 The Top 100 GenAI Products, Ranked and Explained
Assertion Supported
Moore: Lovable creator domain traffic far outweighs visits to deployed apps
“And, like, lovable.dev has more usage or more visits significantly than, you know, traffic to lovable.app, which gets back to what I was saying before.”
Olivia Moore Mar 26, 2025 ▶ 18:58 The Top 100 GenAI Products, Ranked and Explained
Assertion Supported
Olivia Moore: Single-feature AI tools have scaled to hundreds of millions in revenue
“We've seen, quote unquote, like single feature tools, like a background remover, image generator, scale to hundreds of millions of revenue, which is incredible.”
Olivia Moore Jun 11, 2024 ▶ 10:55 The Future of Prosumer: The Rise of “AI Native” Workflows
Assertion Supported
Only 5-6 GenAI apps overlap between top 50 web and mobile lists
“I think there was only five or six companies that made both lists.”
Olivia Moore Jun 4, 2024 ▶ 1:52 The Top 100 GenAI Consumer Apps
Assertion Supported
Multiple top mobile AI apps are copycat wrappers arbitraging OpenAI's models
“So there are quite a few apps on our mobile app list that are essentially copycat products and using OpenAI's own model, but are named slightly differently, and are just kind of playing this, like, maybe short to medium term arbitrage on App Store optimization…”
Olivia Moore Jun 4, 2024 ▶ 3:39 The Top 100 GenAI Consumer Apps
Assertion Supported
The average Character.ai user logs nearly 300 sessions per month
“Character AI has the average user close to 300 sessions per month, which again is like 10 sessions per day.”
Olivia Moore Jun 4, 2024 ▶ 8:06 The Top 100 GenAI Consumer Apps
Assertion Partly supported
Moore: Hitting #1 on US iOS App Store requires ~100k daily downloads
“My data polls show you need probably around or maybe a little bit above a 100,000 downloads in the US on iOS. On any given day to hit number one.”
Olivia Moore Feb 9, 2023 ▶ 7:39 The State of Apps with Olivia Moore
Assertion Supported
Moore: Over half of 2022's #1 iOS apps stayed top under five days
“The largest number of apps that hit number one this year were number one for just a day, or maybe half a day, not that long at all. And more than half of the apps at number one were up there for less than five days throughout the whole year, not even five cons…”
Olivia Moore Feb 9, 2023 ▶ 9:23 The State of Apps with Olivia Moore
Assertion Supported
Moore: Period tracking app hit number one after Roe v. Wade decision
“There's a next gen period tracking app for women, which claims kind of special encryptions that make it harder for, you know, subpoenaing the data or anything like that. And that reached number one just a few days after the Roe v Wade verdict, so after it was …”
Olivia Moore Feb 9, 2023 ▶ 36:40 The State of Apps with Olivia Moore
Prediction Held up
Moore predicts Temu will finish in the top five apps of 2023
“So I'm going to make an early call that we'll see Temu at least in the top five, if not higher.”
Olivia Moore Feb 9, 2023 ▶ 38:59 The State of Apps with Olivia Moore
Assertion Supported
Moore: US-developed breakout #1 apps dropped from 85% to 45% in 2022
“In 20, 21 of the new startups that kind of cracked the top number one for the first time, almost 85% of them were developed in the U.S. But in 2022, that had dropped to 45%.”
Olivia Moore Feb 9, 2023 ▶ 53:45 The State of Apps with Olivia Moore
Assertion Partly supported
Moore: Half of Notion's New ARR Is Driven by AI Features
“Notion actually announced that now they think half of their new ARR is driven by AI-first features, which is very cool.”
Olivia Moore Mar 10, 2026 ▶ 1:26 Inside a16z’s Top 100 AI Apps Report with Olivia Moore
Assertion Supported
Moore: Claude and ChatGPT App Stores Share Only 11% Overlap
“If you actually look at the app stores that are emerging on Cloud and ChatGPT, they both have 200 plus apps, but there's only 11% overlap.”
Olivia Moore Mar 10, 2026 ▶ 3:24 Inside a16z’s Top 100 AI Apps Report with Olivia Moore
Assertion Partly supported
Moore: Gemini User Traction Correlates With Creative Model Releases
“So if you look at their kind of active users and paying users, it's nearly perfectly correlated to releases of like VO three, Nano Banana One, Nano Banana Pro, Nano Banana Two.”
Olivia Moore Mar 10, 2026 ▶ 3:53 Inside a16z’s Top 100 AI Apps Report with Olivia Moore
Assertion Supported
Moore: Anthropic Monetizes Claude Exclusively Through Subscriptions
“So, like, I think Claude has been very clear that they're just gonna monetize via subscriptions, which is great for people and companies who can pay for subscriptions, but it won't be everyone.”
Olivia Moore Mar 10, 2026 ▶ 4:39 Inside a16z’s Top 100 AI Apps Report with Olivia Moore
Assertion Supported
Moore: OpenAI's Sora Held #1 on US App Store for 20 Days
“They were number one on the App Store, the US App Store, for 20 consecutive days, which is very hard to do.”
Olivia Moore Mar 10, 2026 ▶ 21:30 Inside a16z’s Top 100 AI Apps Report with Olivia Moore
Assertion Partly supported
Moore: OpenAI's Sora Reached 1 Million Users Faster Than ChatGPT
“And they actually hit a million users faster than ChatGPT itself.”
Olivia Moore Mar 10, 2026 ▶ 21:43 Inside a16z’s Top 100 AI Apps Report with Olivia Moore
Assertion Contradicted
Moore: OpenClaw Is the Most-Starred GitHub Repository of All Time
“So now it's, I think, number one GitHub stars of all time. It passed React, it passed Linux.”
Olivia Moore Mar 10, 2026 ▶ 25:00 Inside a16z’s Top 100 AI Apps Report with Olivia Moore
Assertion Supported
Moore: Meta Acquired AI Agent Startup Manus for Over $2B
“They had a two billion dollar plus acquisition by Meta, also in the course of the list.”
Olivia Moore Mar 10, 2026 ▶ 26:38 Inside a16z’s Top 100 AI Apps Report with Olivia Moore
Assertion Supported
Moore: ChatGPT enterprise usage grew 8x to 9x year-over-year
“ChatGPT enterprise usage, they publish a big study, but it's ups, Somewhat like eight or nine X year over year.”
Olivia Moore Dec 29, 2025 ▶ 27:24 Where does consumer AI stand at the end of 2025?
Assertion Supported
New entrants to top AI web apps list drop to 11
“But on the web list, we still did have 11 new names. Sounds like a lot out of 50, but it's actually a big reduction from, I think it was 17 new names six months ago. Which to me reflects the fact that the ecosystem is starting to stabilize a little bit more.”
Olivia Moore Aug 27, 2025 ▶ 2:22 The Top 100 Most Used AI Apps in 2025
Assertion Supported
Google NotebookLM sustains flat or growing traffic until late summer
“And then right below the top 10 was Notebook LM. At number 13. And I take your wow as a little bit of a surprise, which was a surprise to me too, and I think a bit of a narrative violation that they went viral almost a year ago. In September of 2024. But they'…”
Olivia Moore Aug 27, 2025 ▶ 5:00 The Top 100 Most Used AI Apps in 2025
Assertion Supported
Lovable announces $100 million in annual recurring revenue
“Lovable recently announced a hundred million dollars in ARR.”
Olivia Moore Aug 27, 2025 ▶ 11:00 The Top 100 Most Used AI Apps in 2025
Assertion Supported
Vibe coding creation tools see higher traffic than produced applications
“And in both cases, the people making things traffic is much higher than the traffic to the things that they are making.”
Olivia Moore Aug 27, 2025 ▶ 12:34 The Top 100 Most Used AI Apps in 2025
Assertion Supported
Most top consumer AI apps rely on third-party models
“More than half of them are actually hosting or using other people's models or are model aggregators.”
Olivia Moore Aug 27, 2025 ▶ 14:46 The Top 100 Most Used AI Apps in 2025
Assertion Partly supported
Over half of top consumer AI apps turned over in early reports
“The first list or two was total chaos in the sense of half the list was new every time, if not more.”
Olivia Moore Aug 27, 2025 ▶ 18:48 The Top 100 Most Used AI Apps in 2025
Assertion Supported
Illinois banned AI mental health therapy without licensed professional supervision
“Last week the state of Illinois just passed a law banning AI for mental health or therapy without kind of the supervision of a licensed professional.”
Olivia Moore Aug 13, 2025 ▶ 9:20 This Week in AI: GPT-5 Ships, 4o Pulled Back, Grok Imagine Goes Social
Assertion Contradicted
Olivia Moore: NotebookLM pioneered realistic conversational disfluencies in AI voice
“Notebook LM came out, and that was the first real voice experience that put in those ums, ahs, pauses, other things that are so human-like”
Olivia Moore Jun 13, 2025 ▶ 8:51 What You Missed in AI This Week (Google, Apple, ChatGPT)
Assertion Supported
Olivia Moore: Enterprises are adopting AI voice to replace offshore call centers
“Real enterprises have picked up voice so quickly to replace human beings on the phone or to augment what human beings are doing on the phone. Even in really kind of sensitive and critical categories like financial services, because previously they were using o…”
Olivia Moore Jun 6, 2025 ▶ 22:01 The State of Consumer Tech in the Age of AI
Assertion Supported
Moore: Three AI companion products ranked in the GenAI 100 top 10
“I think we had three companion products in the top 10. Two of them were NSFW oriented.”
Olivia Moore Mar 26, 2025 ▶ 16:55 The Top 100 GenAI Products, Ranked and Explained
Assertion Partly supported
Moore: ChatGPT web visits remained flat from February 2023 to February 2024
“Between February, 20, 23, basically for a whole year through February, 20, 24, it was essentially flat in monthly visits to the website.”
Olivia Moore Mar 26, 2025 ▶ 20:08 The Top 100 GenAI Products, Ranked and Explained
Assertion Supported
Moore: ChatGPT doubled weekly active users to 400M in six months
“In the past six months, they grew from two hundred million to four hundred million weekly active users.”
Olivia Moore Mar 26, 2025 ▶ 20:51 The Top 100 GenAI Products, Ranked and Explained
Assertion Supported
Moore: DeepSeek reached #2 AI web product within a week of launch
“We only had 10 days of data for Deep Seek for January, because it launched at the end of the month, and it shot up from literally nothing to number two on the list, you know, 10% of ChatGPT scale on web within a week, a little bit more than a week.”
Olivia Moore Mar 26, 2025 ▶ 23:34 The Top 100 GenAI Products, Ranked and Explained
Assertion Supported
Moore: DeepSeek mobile app achieves 7% 30-day retention versus ChatGPT's 9%
“On a retention basis, like, how many users are coming back to the app, say, Exactly 30 days, exactly seven days, exactly 60 days. It's just slightly below ChatGPT. So we're looking at seven percent day 30 for DeepSeq and nine percent day 30 for ChatGPT.”
Olivia Moore Mar 26, 2025 ▶ 24:26 The Top 100 GenAI Products, Ranked and Explained
Assertion Supported
Moore: Top AI mobile apps by usage and revenue only overlap 40%
“So for the first time, we actually ranked the top 50 by What Sensor Tower can measure as mobile revenue, which is typically in-app purchases and subscriptions, so probably not ads. And we ranked those separately from what has the most monthly active users. And…”
Olivia Moore Mar 26, 2025 ▶ 30:34 The Top 100 GenAI Products, Ranked and Explained
Assertion Supported
Moore: Leading AI voice agents support bidirectional interruptions
“And you can have some of the most human-like voice agents that I've seen are capable of being interrupted by humans and also capable of interrupting humans, too.”
Olivia Moore Mar 18, 2025 ▶ 7:13 Why AI Voice Feels More Human Than Ever
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