The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Markoff predicts semiconductor scaling will permanently stop at 5 nanometers
“I believe, you know, based on talking to all the wise men I've been able to talk to in Silicon Valley, that there are three more turns of the crank. We go from 14 to 10 to seven to five. The industry can see its way to five.”
John Markoff Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 20:12 a16z Podcast | Talking Humans and Machines with NYT’s John Markoff
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Markoff: Power savings at 7nm and 5nm will create new industries
“And there is one more big deal. If you get to five or if you get to seven it's a significant savings in power. And it's, so it's not a performance, not its cost, but that turn of the crank on power, I think that could create new platforms that will create new …”
John Markoff Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 20:25 a16z Podcast | Talking Humans and Machines with NYT’s John Markoff
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Markoff: Voice conversation will become the primary interface for everyday smart devices
“And I believe that we increasingly will talk to them because that's the most obvious interface.”
John Markoff Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 23:12 a16z Podcast | Talking Humans and Machines with NYT’s John Markoff
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Markoff: Consumers will eventually prefer talking to machines over humans for efficiency
“First people will hate talking to machines, and then just like ATMs and bank tellers, they'll realize that it's a more efficient way to get the information you want. And we will spend much of our time talking to machines.”
John Markoff Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 30:44 a16z Podcast | Talking Humans and Machines with NYT’s John Markoff
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