why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Shum: Opaque AI in medical and military decisions can be deadly
“You might think it's probably harmless to get some kind of Netflix, Netflix recommendation about the movies you to watch. But the political ads on social networks can be problematic. Medical diagnosis, or even military decisions based on AI, you know, can be d…”
Assertion Partly supported
Shum: Microsoft AI surpassed human transcribers with 5.1% error rate
“In speech, ah, there's this very standard dataset called the switchboard dataset that is really recording of two, ah, from two sides and, ah, phone conversations. Ah, two years ago, we accomplished the 5.1% of the error rate. Ah, that is really, really, ah, am…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shum: XiaoIce distributed 1M coupons with 40% in-store conversion rate
“So we did experiment with the coupons, and the amazing that, you know, we distributed a million coupons in 13 hours, and the in-stock conversion rate hit a 40% in the next four days.”
Assertion Partly supported
Shum: XiaoIce powers 90% of Chinese corporate earnings summaries
“We actually now power 90% of, ah the quarterly earning report summary, ah, for 90% of, you know, Chinese companies, and they're also powered by Xiaoice.”
Opinion
Shum: Goldman Sachs's Apple Card system likely contains AI bias
“You probably would, you know, agree with me that very likely there's some kind of AI buyers in the machine learning system they have built.”
Opinion
Shum: Society cannot accept unexplainable AI decision-making
“And because I really believe we cannot accept a future where AI making decisions, ah, that we cannot explain, we cannot understand.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shum: Microsoft AI approaches human parity in perception and language
“We actually gradually approaching human parody in a number of those human tasks, especially perception. From computer vision to speech to more and more natural language.”
Insight
Shum: Blindly training AI on internet data yields biased systems
“The data we collected over the internet has some inherent bias. So if we just blindly use the data to train AI, we know we have problems.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shum: AI models with trillions of parameters are black boxes
“Because we now train all this kind of complex models with millions, even trillions of parameters. So effectively we are building AIs as black boxes.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shum: We are the first generation of humans living with AI
“Ah, we are going to be the first generation of humans to ever live with AI.”
Assertion Supported
Shum: Microsoft Research Beijing invented ResNet, the most popular vision network
“ResNet now is the most popular deep neural net, ah, in computer vision. Ah, we actually invented in our research lab in Beijing by my students, ah, using 152 layers of neural networks.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shum: Microsoft's XiaoIce social chatbot has 120 million monthly active users
“Ah, XiaoEyes now is very popular, ah, with a hundred twenty million, ah, monthly active users.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shum: Microsoft's XiaoIce chatbot averages 23 conversation turns per session
“But Xiaomi's CPS, or conversation turns possession, No, on average, actually achieves 23 times.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shum: Longest XiaoIce conversation lasted over 29 hours and 7,000 turns
“Incredibly, the longest conversation any human user ever talked to XiaoAis is actually over 29 hours of 7000 turns.”