The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Baker: Google surpassed OpenAI and Anthropic in total AI traffic
“I think they've taken 15 or 20 points of traffic share in the last two or three months, and that does not, that's just traffic to Gemini. It does not include search overviews. I suspect on a actual traffic basis, Google is bigger than OpenAI, Anthropic, anyone…”
Gavin Baker Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 8:48 "Is there an AI bubble?” Gavin Baker and David George
Assertion Supported
Operating Cash Flow Funds the Majority of Current AI Infrastructure Buildouts
“Even today, a majority of this is still being funded out of operating cashflow, which I think is really helpful.”
Gavin Baker Aug 31, 2026 ▶ 21:25 Why AI Demand Is Outrunning Compute Supply
Assertion Supported
Top GPU spenders gained 10-point ROIC increase after raising AI CapEx
“Those companies, since they ramped up CapEx, have seen, call it a 10 point increase in their ROICs. So thus far, the ROI on all the spending has been really positive.”
Gavin Baker Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 5:02 "Is there an AI bubble?” Gavin Baker and David George
Assertion Supported
Open-Source Models Require the Same Compute as Equivalent Frontier Models
“It takes the exact same amount of compute. All else equal to make an open source token as a, you know, frontier token for a comparably sized model. Now there's a lot of nuances there, but that's broadly true. It's just a question of what are the margins that a…”
Gavin Baker Aug 31, 2026 ▶ 32:16 Why AI Demand Is Outrunning Compute Supply
Assertion Contradicted
Kimi Model License Demands 30% Revenue Share on Downstream Usage
“And even then the Kimi license, something that I don't think a lot of people appreciate is the Kimi license stipulates a 30% share of any revenue. So, like, Kimi has taken a 30% cut of all the revenue generated on its, and this is because it's open weights, no…”
Gavin Baker Aug 31, 2026 ▶ 32:37 Why AI Demand Is Outrunning Compute Supply
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