The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 4 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Musk and Huang Co-Designed an Orbital NVIDIA Rubin Rack for 2027
“Elon said that he and Jensen have co-designed a Reuben rack. And there, it's gonna launch in the fourth quarter of 27.”
Gavin Baker Aug 31, 2026 ▶ 38:41 Why AI Demand Is Outrunning Compute Supply
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2030
Baker: Frontier AI lab gross margins will stay structurally below SaaS
“And the nature of AI because of scaling laws, Richard Sutton's the better listen they're just more compute intensive. So their gross margins are structurally going to be lower. But that doesn't mean they can't be great businesses. I just, I think it's going to…”
Gavin Baker Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 13:48 "Is there an AI bubble?” Gavin Baker and David George
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2028
Baker: Major custom AI ASIC programs will be canceled within three years
“In the next three years, I think you'll see a bunch of high-profile ASIC programs canceled, especially if Google starts selling TPUs externally, which has been all over X.”
Gavin Baker Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 25:10 "Is there an AI bubble?” Gavin Baker and David George
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2027
Anthropic's Next Financial Disclosure Will Likely Show Re-Accelerating Revenue Growth
“And then, you know, I would hypothesize, because they've executed well, probably the next disclosure is a re-acceleration, and then there's always this kind of funny game between the frontier model companies.”
Gavin Baker Aug 31, 2026 ▶ 3:56 Why AI Demand Is Outrunning Compute Supply
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