The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Frontier AI Labs Will Not Generate Free Cash Flow Anytime Soon
“They, I, for sure, I don't think they will generate free cash flow anytime soon. I think they're gonna generate a lot of operating cash flow, and then they'll use that to buy a lot of, you know, GPUs XPUs, whatever, whatever I'm gonna call them.”
American Open-Source AI Led by NVIDIA Will Reach Near-Frontier Capabilities
“I do think you're going to see American open source led by Nvidia get really close to the frontier.”
Baker: AI may be a sustaining innovation for Big Tech
“I think there's reasonable arguments that AI could be a sustaining innovation because the raw ingredients of kind of data, you know, the capital to buy compute and distribution, which is what you need. All of the big you know, today's biggest tech companies ha…”
Baker: Frontier AI lab gross margins will stay structurally below SaaS
“And the nature of AI because of scaling laws, Richard Sutton's the better listen they're just more compute intensive. So their gross margins are structurally going to be lower. But that doesn't mean they can't be great businesses. I just, I think it's going to…”
Baker: Cursor's token flywheel will become tough for competitors to catch
“And the reality is, Kirscher, now they have a trillion, trillion tokens. And you know, there will be a point where they have enough coding tokens that it's tough to catch them.”
Baker: AI browser startups will regret competing against Google Chrome
“I think the AI companies that have launched these AI browsers may come to regret it, because there's something called Chrome that has whatever it is, five billion users, and if you're Google you know, you can just go look at what happened with Google Buzz.”
Baker: Major custom AI ASIC programs will be canceled within three years
“In the next three years, I think you'll see a bunch of high-profile ASIC programs canceled, especially if Google starts selling TPUs externally, which has been all over X.”
Baker: Global robotics market will be Tesla versus China
“Yeah, very real, and it's gonna be Tesla versus the Chinese in the same way it's Tesla versus the Chinese in, in cars.”