why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Schimpf: Next 30 years of defense tech relies on cheap autonomous systems
“So number one, the tech for the next 20 or 30 years was going to be like primarily how do you just have more cheap autonomous systems on the battlefield, just more sensors, just more information flowing in.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Schimpf: Military surveillance and strikes will soon achieve high automation levels
“Yeah, I, look, I think the mechanics of, okay, there's this airfield, and you want to go surveil it, and, like, take it you can do some strike, you can do some surveillance, you can do all these things. That, there will be a large degree of automation in that,…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Schimpf: Anduril doesn't need government procurement reform to succeed
“Do I think it's necessary to change for us to be successful? Not really. Like, we're just going to play the game that they present.”
Prediction Held up
China is actively investing in and will deploy autonomous weapons
“We know that China is, you know, investing in similar technologies. We know they're going to move out on it,”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Drone attacks on U.S. military bases will increase in frequency
“The attack in Tower 22 is very tragic, and it's the type of thing that I think is going to, frankly, increase in frequency.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Defense manufacturing capacity constraints will be eliminated within five years
“So our belief is this is a solvable problem. You could take advantage of commercial innovation on this, and there should be no capacity constraints you know, over any sort of five-year period to actually be able to produce these systems.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Anduril CEO: Rebuilding domestic manufacturing competitiveness will take years
“This is where I think tariffs applied on more of like, you know, kind of a national security industrial policy basis can be really advantageous. Create the time for, you know, American and allied industry to be able to get price competitive. It's just going to…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Defense tech will not produce hundreds of major startup success stories
“I think the hard reality with this is it's just like venture. It's just like any sort of industry where there isn't going to be 500 success stories. That is unlikely to be the case, right?”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Schimpf: US manufacturing rebuild will start in defense and aerospace
“I don't think it's gonna start with, you know, making low cost iPhones, but I think starting in defense production, starting in aerospace, Areas where there's like a national interest in keeping this on the U.S., and then looking at mass-producibility there.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Schimpf: AI's primary defense role is managing massive sensor scale
“So when I think about, like, where AI is going to drive The most value for warfare. It is dealing with the scale problem, which is really like the amount of information that is the number of sensors, like the sheer volume of systems that are going to be fielde…”