why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kumar: Near-term AI voice models will still lack dynamic conversational fluidity
“And the models that we have today, like CSM, for example, And probably some of the models that we'll have in the short term that will make the experience better will still not be modeling the conversational dynamics because they're making decisions that kind o…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kumar: Competitors will match Sesame's voice quality; there is no secret sauce
“The other companies, the other sort of chat products and so forth, they will get better voices. They're all, like, it's not gonna, we don't have some magical secret sauce on the technical side that is gonna be, like, impossible to replicate. They're gonna get …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kumar: Transcription-free conversational AI models are coming soon
“A pretty clear path that a lot of, I think, labs are taking, and we're taking as well, and will be in kind of future versions, is just kind of transcription free. Just go straight into the text component which will kind of obviate transcription entirely. That …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kumar: Open source won't solve AI voice and personality features
“But other parts in particular, kind of some of the personality aspects, some of the voice aspects, the speech generation, we didn't think and we still don't think will just be kind of done by the community. We think we will need to do it because that's kind of…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2028
Kumar: Sesame is actively developing smart glasses for its AI companions
“We mentioned on the website and we mentioned some of our launch content that we are working towards glasses as a form factor for Companions, or kind of this companion interface”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kumar: Smartphones and laptops will not be replaced anytime soon
“No one's going to replace phones anytime soon, or laptops for that matter.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Kumar: Sesame will build a unified audio-text transformer within months
“The path that we're going to take, I think, over the next few months is making a single transformer that does both audio understanding, content, text content generation, and speech generation.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2028
Kumar: Next Sesame AI models will feed audio natively into LLMs
“And so the kind of next versions of our models that will take audio and natively into the kind of LLM component will hopefully more and more pick up on those things.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kumar: Storytelling and AI will merge into new AI-native media categories
“And I think that we will see a lot of not just Sesame, but other kinds of media, let's say, that are sort of AI native in a way that Bring some creativity, bring some like storytelling into AI, or maybe bring AI into those categories. And I think they'll make …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kumar: Speech research community will shift toward contextual AI architectures
“So, so the speech generation research community is very likely, I think, to move to more and more contextual architectures basically.”
Prediction Held up
Kumar: Sesame will not build a one-size-fits-all AI companion
“So we're certainly not going to, we don't see our product as like one companion that's the same for everyone. People have different preferences and that has to be a part of this kind of product category for sure.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kumar: Conversational AI will eventually rely on single models over heuristic pipelines
“I don't think you want to, in the long term, have those dynamics be like heuristics and so on, which they kind of are now. There are models involved in some heuristics and so forth. I think in the long term, it's just one model that is kind of naturally employ…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kumar: Transformers will remain the dominant AI sequence architecture short-term
“And I wouldn't bet against transformers, you know, not in the short term anyways.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kumar: Sesame will preserve AI companion personality as models improve
“They're making assistance. They're making utilities. I love those products. I use them all the time. They're great products. We want to make a companion. And so our prioritization of features and of, let's say, post training kind of personality, et cetera, wil…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kumar: Big tech companies will attempt to own conversational AI interface layer
“I think that over time, I think we will see more of these, you know, bigger companies trying to operate this layer. Like I said, I think that there is not enough effort on that right now, making these systems delightful to interact with, you know, and I think …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kumar: Developer plugins will be essential to future AI interfaces
“I think that the models still need to get better basically to utilize plugins essentially in a way that's kind of reliable enough that someone will go out and look for a plugin for, you know, their kind of downstream service of choice because they just want, y…”
Prediction Held up
Kumar: Sesame is developing a companion AI app with persistent memory
“We are making an app. We will make an app. I think for a little bit of time, it's going to still be kind of the demo experience. We want to support people using that for a long time, or, you know, we don't want to, we're not taking it away anytime soon from wh…”