The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,855 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 166 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Andreessen: Public trust in traditional institutions will eventually hit zero
“The partisanship is actually holding up the reputation of institutions that otherwise, where their ratings would, their trust ratings would literally go to zero which I think is probably what happens in the fullness of time.”
Levie: Incoming software engineers will be unable to code without AI
“It's going to change the nature of the incoming class of engineers that you hire. Like they will literally not be able to code without AI assistant, assisting them.”
Roy Lee predicts Cluely will achieve better distribution than OpenAI
“If the question is about distribution, then I think there's actually, like, a pretty strong case for us to make that we will actually end up distributing better than OpenAI, and It's enough that you could probably bet on us at like, well, like a 30,000 X disco…”
Younis: US is doomed if commercial software firms refuse DOD support
“If small and large commercial software companies don't support our government, and specifically the Department of Defense, we're screwed.”
Li: Specialist AI startups will win over foundation model creators
“I actually think the winners will be the specialists, not the foundational models. It's the people who will build on top of the foundational models or fine tune the foundational models.”
Vance: Administration will cut taxes and regulations for domestic manufacturers
“The Trump administration's great plan for staging the great American manufacturing comeback is simple. You're making interesting new things here in America? Great. Then we're going to cut your taxes. We're going to slash regulations. We're going to reduce the …”
Bry: Mass AI Drone Swarms Will Outperform Multi-Billion-Dollar Legacy Weapons
“Buying legacy exquisite systems that cost hundreds of millions of dollars, some cases billions of dollars, there's a trade-off between, like, one or two of something, or, you know, 10,000, or a 100,000, or a million drones, and, you know, if you just look into…”
Mensch: AI export controls will not stop European or Asian progress
“Effectively, if there's some export control over weight this is not going to stop any country in Europe, any country in Asia to continue its progress. And they will collaborate to actually accelerate that progress.”
Biilmann: Custom internal apps will surpass off-the-shelf SaaS as costs drop
“We'll see the cost of building internal applications and applications in general go to almost zero, right? Like, so there will be tons of those and Lots more internal applications than off-the-shelf SaaS products, right?”
Long: AI cyberattacks will disable critical infrastructure within two years
“I think what I'm really worried about is that when you're going to see this actually transition to people being actively hurt you know, hospitals being taken down, energy systems taken offline, other things like that. Obviously we've had cases of that already …”
Sivulka: The arrival of AGI will trigger a massive financial market correction
“First, when AGI is here, there will be a massive correction in the financial markets. That is actually my Turing test is if AGI is here, will it actually be able to make significantly more money than a human investor? Better than human investing. And I think p…”
Casado: DeepSeek R1 standalone will not have a deep impact
“I don't think that R-One itself as a standalone is going to have that deep of an impact.”
Horowitz: All future serious infrastructure software will be open source
“But open source, I believe is the only way to build infrastructure software. I don't think there's going to be a serious piece of infrastructure software that people actually use and deploy that isn't open source again.”
Immerman: Google's search monopoly is coming to an end
“My big idea is that the search monopoly, particularly around Google, is coming to an end.”
Horowitz: We will continue funding police tech despite TechCrunch criticism
“And to Margot at TechCrunch you can write what you want about me, you can say what you will about us, but we're not going to stop, so sorry.”
Andreessen: The US and China are in a new bipolar Cold War
“And I at least believe the 21st century is basically going to be another version of that, and it so happens that we're back in a bipolar world, and we have the US and the Communist Party of China which is sort of, you know, USSR two point oh, and they have a m…”
Andreessen: Chinese drones used by US military could be subverted in war
“If we go to war with China over Taiwan or something crazy like that, like these drones could all become weapons that are used against our own soldiers.”
Wang: Pure AI model renting will be a mediocre long-term business
“Lack of pricing power, let's say, on the pure model layer certainly indicates that renting models out on their own may or may not be the best long-term business. I think it's likely to be a relatively mediocre long-term business.”
Wang: Scale AI will hire purely on merit without demographic quotas
“Yeah, so MEI, we basically rolled out this idea of merit, excellence, and intelligence and the basic idea is in every role we're gonna hire the best possible person regardless of their demographics and we're not going to do any sort of you know quota-based opt…”
Dolgov: Waymo will continue using LiDAR, radar, and cameras together
“So yeah, I think the trend, you know, for us that we'll, you know, using all three modalities just, you know, makes a lot of sense.”
Mark Casey predicts no crypto altcoins will succeed long term
“I kind of don't think any of the altcoins are really gonna work long term, whether maybe the architecture isn't decentralized, or maybe Gary Gensler at the SEC will get his way and successfully argue legally that the altcoin is an unregistered security and nee…”
Andreessen: Proposed AI compute limits will entrench monopolies and destroy startups
“And so basically the regime that, you know, the government is threatening to put in place right now is going to, you know, by using this limit, they're going to basically enshrine the two or three companies that they believe are the only companies that matter …”
Andreessen: Unrealized gains tax threshold will drop to hit startup workers
“Inevitably this, the threshold is going to walk down and it's going to end. You just tell what's going to happen. It's going to go to 50 and then 20 and then five million and then one million. It's going to walk all the way down and it's going to hit, number o…”
Andreessen: Generative AI prompts will render manual pixel editing obsolete
“Because you'll live in this new world, and in the new world, you'll just tell the machine what you want for a photo, for an image, and it'll generate you as many options as you want, and it's generating you something that's better than you would have been able…”
Horowitz: Attending school to learn will be obsolete by 2030
“I don't know why you have to go to school to learn anything, you know, in 2030. Like, that's not gonna be true. So, like, I think education's gonna reemerge much better than it's ever been.”
Andreessen: Software startup costs will rise due to the Jevons Paradox
“And so the paradox here would be, yes, the cost of developing any given piece of software falls, but the re, the reaction to that is a massive surge of demand for software capabilities. And so the result of that actually is, although it even, it looks like sta…”
Horowitz: Misguided AI regulation will cede US leadership to China
“With kind of misguided regulation You know, we could actually force our way from something that, you know, is open source, open weights. Anybody can build it. We'll have a plethora of this technology. We'll be like, use all of American innovation to compete, o…”
Andreessen: Centralized authorities will lose all public respect within ten years
“My guess, you know, we'll, we'll see what happens in more, more authoritarian societies, but my guess is in at least Western societies with relatively open. Access to information. It will just be impossible for, it will just be impossible for most centralized …”
Andreessen: Generative AI will easily replace white-collar email jobs within five years
“As the generative AI revolution hits white-collar work, you know, over the next five years, like, I suspect, I'll put it this way, a reason for bullishness on AI in the workplace is I suspect it may be easier than it looks to replace a lot of white-collar work…”
Horowitz: Big Tech monopolies could surpass US government power within five years
“If we don't do that, you know, over the next five years, these monopolies are going to get much, much stronger. Probably some of them will be stronger than the US government itself.”
Andreessen: Unions and licensing boards will block AI in healthcare and education
“There's just so much sort of glue in the system now that, that that prevents change and it'll be very easy to sort of not have AI healthcare or you know AI education or whatever, because literally some combination of like, you know, doctor licensing, teacher b…”
Tseng: Aircraft carriers and expensive jets will be destroyed quickly in major conflict
“What's really interesting to me is how the defense market is transforming. And moving away from exquisite capital assets like aircraft carriers, like ships, like very, very expensive fighter jets or very, very expensive drones. And they're moving away from it …”
Hicks: DoD aims to field thousands of autonomous systems within 24 months
“Replicator's goal has always been simple and straightforward, to field thousands of attributable autonomous systems in multiple domains within 18 to 24 months, and to prove ways to burn down risk and rapidly and safely overcome barriers to scaling.”
Andreessen: Politicians will inevitably weaponize Central Bank Digital Currencies
“A central bank digital currency, I think, is kind of the ultimate ring of power. Like, it, it's very difficult for me to see a system like that getting built, and then politicians not using it to reward their friends and punish their enemies.”
McMahill: Flock technology will eventually make committing crimes impossible
“This technology is changing the game, and with the advent of Flock, we are going to get to a place at some point where it becomes impossible to commit a crime because technology will help us resolve that.”
Andreessen: Opponents of nuclear fission will immediately block nuclear fusion deployment
“I think what's going to happen is I look, I think we'll get fusion to work at some point. There's very smart people working on it. I think they'll get it there. I think the same forces and ideas and people that have prevented the deployment of nuclear fission …”
Andreessen: AI will expand entertainment and tech industry jobs and output
“On the other side of this kind of change, typically what happens is a much larger industry with like way more employment, way more output. And I, I'm a hundred percent convinced that's what's going to happen for sure in the tech industry and for sure in, in, i…”
AI capable of curing cancer is only a few years away
“I'd love to get to the point where you can just ask it how to cure cancer or something, you know. I mean, it's, you know, it seems a few years away for now, but, you know, like.”
Field: Foundational AI models will eventually become commoditized
“On the question of sort of stars versus incumbents, it's hard to believe that Foundational models won't get commoditized, but I'm definitely being, I'm willing to be proven wrong there. But it does seem like, you know, over time, this should be something that …”
Murati: Scaling RLHF alone might be sufficient to solve AI hallucinations
“And we also wanted to figure out the issue of hallucinations, which is always an extremely hard problem. But I do think that with this method of tree enforcement learning with human feedback, maybe that is all we need if we push this hard enough.”
Amodei: AI training costs will hit $1B in 2024 and up to $10B in 2025
“I think that next year we're probably going to see from multiple players models on the order of one billion dollars, and in 2025 we're going to see models on the order of Several billion, I don't know, perhaps even ten billion dollars.”
Andreessen: U.S. executives tied to China will face severe political backlash
“The moral valence on China is shifting in real time right now on both sides of the political aisle in Washington, in the same way the moral valence on the Soviet Union shifted in the late 19 forties, early 19 fifties, and I think there are people who have been…”
Andreessen: Upcoming EU AI regulation will be devastating for Europe
“The EU is about to pass, you know, a law based on these ideas that I think is going to be very devastating for them.”
Marc Andreessen: AI will not kill humanity
“No, AI is not going to kill us all. AI is not going to murder every person on the planet.”
Andreessen sees 50/50 chance US government creates AI industry cartel
“And quite honestly, it's like fifty-fifty right now, whether or not the government's going to basically bless a cartel of a handful of companies to basically control AI for the next 30 years.”
Ismail: Generative AI will replace most lawyers
“The best benefit is we'll replace most of the lawyers. Because you could just say, generate me a contract that has these characteristics and it'll throw in the clauses and et cetera.”
Masad: Global developer count will reach 300 million by 2030
“So with software engineering becoming more accessible because of AI, I do think we're going to get a lot more developers. I think we're going to get way, way more developed, probably 10 X. So right now there's like thirty million developers in the world. There…”
Masad: AI will eliminate mid-level 'glue code plumber' developer jobs
“And the way I see, so the developer market evolving to accommodate this new technology Is that there's going to be this bit of a bimodal distribution. So bimodal distribution, meaning there's no middle end, there's a large tail on both sides, right? So the mid…”