The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 18 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Rabois: Promoting CFOs to CEO Is Almost Always a Mistake
“Promoted this completely mediocre CFO, which is almost always a bad idea, to be CEO. And she went from mediocre to, like, the worst CEO in the planet.”
Nejatian: Opendoor launches home return policy in Dallas, Texas
“Which, by the way, we launched this yesterday at Opendoor in Dallas, Texas. You buy a home from Opendoor, you don't like it, you can return it. Like, you can move it early, try it out, don't like it, return it.”
Rabois: Opendoor Can 10x Value By Unwinding Prior Execution Mistakes
“The good news is you can get, like, 10 X value just by unwinding those mistakes, which Kaz is definitely doing.”
Rabois: Opendoor's Base Case Valuation Is $20B to $50B
“And if we just get the same multiples on what they do, Will be worth tens of billions to fifty billion. That's like the base case.”
Nejatian: Three structural flaws have killed every real estate tech attempt
“So I think like there's been three like structural flaws that have basically killed every attempt to solve this. The first one is like, let me solve a part of it. Let me solve the tiniest, like most profitable part of it first, which I objectively has failed l…”
Nejatian: Opendoor will maintain principal risk on home inventory long-term
“I do think for what it's worth that the right model actually is much closer to Amazon than to eBay. Yeah. Because I actually think for, I think Opendoor will have principal risk on quite a lot of this inventory for a very long time.”
Nejatian: Opendoor erred by acting as a real estate investor instead of software company
“I think that's actually a problem that, that Opendoor has had is that, like, Externally and for, admittedly, for some time internally, the company thought of itself as essentially an investor in a real, like real estate as an asset class, which is not the job …”
Nejatian: Opendoor built home return guarantee in 12 days
“It's like the honest, like from the time someone asked that question to the time we launched the product was maybe, I think, 12 days.”
Kaz Nejatian: Traditional house flipping is not a large business opportunity
“If Opendoor is an old fashioned operational house flipper, like, that's not that, it could be meaningful. It's not that big a business, right?”
Rampell: Opendoor once bought nearly 10% of sub-$600k homes in Charlotte
“In one of the markets, I think it was Charlotte, if I remember correctly, almost 10% of homes in Charlotte that were under a certain price, call it like 600,000 dollar homes, which actually buys you a lot of house in Charlotte. 10% of the homes were bought by …”
Rampell: Opendoor holds 10% market share in active cities
“And now Opendoor for many of the markets that they're in, they're 10% of the market.”
Sherman Wu: OpenAI's API pricing is less sophisticated than Opendoor's
“I don't think we do anything as sophisticated as Open Door.”
Nejatian: Opendoor avoids Carvana's core physical transport logistics
“Carvana moves every single car they buy. Like, Opendoor does not move homes. Like, homes stay where they are.”
Kaz Nejatian: Opendoor does too little for home buyers and sellers
“Opendoor does too little for its sellers and does almost nothing for its buyers. Like, that's, like, we'll solve both of those problems.”
Kaz Nejatian: Running a Public Company Is Difficult If You Care About Media Coverage
“If you care a great deal about what's said about you in the Wall Street Journal, running a public company is incredibly difficult. It's just very difficult. Luckily, I just don't care.”
Nejatian: Every homebuyer pays at least one extra mortgage or rent payment
“Everyone, like, everyone pays at least one extra mortgage payment or one extra rent payment, as frequently more.”