why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Evans: Google generates more revenue on iOS than on Android
“You know, Google is making more money on iOS and Android right now.”
Assertion Supported
Olivia Moore: Gemini hits 50% of ChatGPT scale on Android, 17% on iOS
“Like, if you look at Android, Gemini is at, like, 50% of ChatGPT's scale on mobile, whereas on iOS it's, like, 17%.”
Prediction Held up
Evans: Global iOS and Android devices will reach five billion
“There's one and a half billion PCs on Earth. There's three billion iOS and Android devices on Earth. We'll go to five billion.”
Prediction Held up
Evans: iOS split-screen multitasking will not reignite iPad sales growth
“It's not going to, you know, suddenly reignite sales of iPad growth sales growth, but, you know, it may change what it means to use it a bit.”
Assertion Partly supported
Apple Maps has 3.5x more iOS users than Google Maps
“That Apple Maps has three and a half times more users than Google Maps on iOS.”
Assertion Supported
Evans: iOS users spend four times more than Android users
“You have double the revenue on iOS for half the users, and so very roughly four times the spend.”
Prediction Held up
Evans predicts active iOS and Android devices will reach four billion globally
“And we'll go to four billion iOS and Android.”
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Android E-Commerce Basket Sizes Are Half of iOS
“Basket size or an e-commerce transaction or, you know, payment rate on Android that's half what you see from iOS, and that's, as I said, it's really just a function of price.”
Prediction Held up
Active Android devices will reach 2-3B; iOS will reach 700-900M
“And, you know, as things play out with the current dynamics, which aren't really going to change in the next two or three years, we will end up with seven, eight, nine hundred million iOS devices in use on Earth. It's probably about 500 now. And we'll end up w…”
Assertion Supported
Evans: iPhone users account for 75 percent of retail basket size
“If you were to look at share of value right now, it's probably three quarters of your basket size.”
Assertion Supported
Wroblewski: Facebook's early iOS app suffered from using HTML web views
“When their iOS app, they literally had like an HTML web view, JavaScript rendering pseudo browser, making the feed. They hadn't, didn't write it in native code and the thing would crash and it was slow and memory was just a zoo.”
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple's 900M active iOS devices rival 1.5B global PCs
“There's only one and a half billion PCs on Earth, and Apple has nine hundred million iOS devices out there.”
Assertion Contradicted
Evans: iOS and Android ship 1.5B units annually with 3B active devices
“IOS, Android, doing over one and a half billion units this year, and probably over three billion of those things in the world today.”
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple iOS has 700M to 800M active devices
“And then there's a platform with eight, seven or eight hundred million active devices, iOS.”