The Ledger
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why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Labenz: Pure reasoning AI models achieved IMO gold without external tools
“Well, I mean, a big one from just the last few weeks was that we had an IMO gold medal with pure reasoning models with no access to tools from multiple companies. And, you know, that is night and day compared to what GPT-IV could do with math, right?”
Andreessen: GPT-4 can write screenplays using the Save the Cat framework
“One of the things you can do with like GPT-IV, you know, with like ChatGPT or with whatever, you know, Bing, Bing Chat or whatever you can actually use it will write you screenplays today, and what you can do, you can just tell it, write me a screenplay about,…”
Labenz: Per-token model costs fell 95% from GPT-4 to GPT-5
“It's like 90 it's like a 95% discount from GPT-IV to GPT-V.”
Andreessen: Voyager Minecraft bot built on GPT-4 is best-in-class
“This bot basically is built entirely on, on, on black box GPT-IV. So they have not built their own model or perception or planning or anything, you know, any sort of traditional engine you would build to build a bot like this. Instead, they work entirely at th…”