The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Mensch: 2020-2021 AI research suffered from flawed scaling laws in GPT-3 and Gopher
“There was also a misconception on GPT-free and basically in 20, 21, every paper made this mistake.”
Arthur Mensch Dec 28, 2023 ▶ 3:17 Safety in Numbers: Keeping AI Open
Assertion Partly supported
Masad: GPT-3 slashes parser development time from weeks to 15 minutes
“GPT-III is incredibly good at parsing. If you give it a malformed JSON, it will still parse it. Writing parsers is one of the hardest things you can do in programming. Writing parsers in GPT-III is one of the easiest thing you could do. You could spend 15 minu…”
Amjad Masad Feb 16, 2023 ▶ 39:14 The 1000x Developer with Amjad Masad
Assertion Supported
Misra: GPT-3 prompt matrix rows exceed atoms in all known galaxies
“If you just take just the old first generation GPT-III model, which had a context window of 2000 tokens and a vocabulary of 50,000 next tokens or 50,000 tokens, then the size of it, the number of rows in this matrix is more than the number of atoms across all …”
Vishal Misra Oct 13, 2025 ▶ 22:06 Will LLMs Get Us To AGI?
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