why aren't all 32 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wanstrath: Cyberattacks on GitHub aimed to suppress speech, not steal data
“And it's not about hacking or stealing information or trying to get passwords from us. It's about suppressing Speech.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Blania: AI will perform all digital actions, breaking Web of Trust models
“We disregarded it basically immediately because we assumed that, you know, eventually everything that is just digital and AI will be able to do as well. Yeah, exactly. So an AI will be able to have a GitHub account and we'll be able to post Test and owner acco…”
Insight
Casado: Direct sales teams maximize ACV for bottom-up software companies
“Does it still make sense to build a direct sales force? As in, will it increase the unit economics if you do? I think our experience here with Slack and with GitHub and with many companies is, It's definitely yes, right? Yeah, the answer is yes. Because that's…”
Disclosure
Horowitz: Rival VCs heavily criticized Andreessen Horowitz's GitHub investment for overpaying
“This one probably got the most criticism, particularly from other VCs when we made it. It was, they way overpaid, you know, businesses like that will never be worth a, rational was, went for the most money ever in that space, and they'll never make their money…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Andreessen: Telepresence and VR will end tech geographic concentration by 2038
“My hope is that we're gonna get there in the next, you know, let's say, 10 or 20 years. My hope is that we're gonna get telepresence, right, in the form of video conferencing, and telepresence robots, and VR, and AR, and all these things, collaboration softwar…”
Insight
Wanstrath: Communication is software's hardest problem; technical issues can wait
“The communication part is the hardest part and the most important part, and the technical part, you have unlimited amount of time to figure out later, and so we're really focused on the communication part”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Wanstrath: GitHub will become less interesting as execution takes priority over storage
“GitHub is actually gonna get less interesting in the future, and it's gonna be less about, I can grab an open source project and run it, and more about where do I run it? What are the systems it integrates into? And so, GitHub is really awesome, I think, for m…”
Disclosure
Wanstroth admits he was wrong to believe GitHub didn't need sales
“For a while, I think not having a sales team is the right decision for GitHub, and now I believe that having a sales team is the right decision. So, I, a couple years ago, I would have said GitHub is a company that doesn't need sales, and we did say that. Now,…”
Assertion Supported
Ayrey: Most LLMs hardcode API keys when generating integration code
“The piece about, ah, like secrets in code was some interesting research we did. Basically, we just went out and asked all the LLMs, write me an integration with GitHub, write me an integration with Stripe, and the vast majority of them hard coded the API key d…”
Insight
Levine: Cloud and SaaS enabled the commercial monetization of open source
“Well, the element, I believe, that has brought open source from fringe hobby project out of academia to mainstream is the fact that you can actually build commercial businesses On top of open source. Right. And a lot of that, which you guys at Databricks are d…”
Assertion Supported
Chokshi: Microsoft has more GitHub commits than any other company
“The most interesting thing I saw this past week is this stat that Microsoft now has more commits to GitHub than any other company. And can you just think about that for a moment? Like Microsoft on GitHub.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sinofsky: Even major proprietary software companies secretly use open source code
“That is actually true even in the world's most largest proprietary software company.”
Insight
Spolsky: Hiring programmers requires evaluating public portfolios like GitHub and Stack Overflow
“It's really looking at a programmer's public work now that's relevant. And so just like you wouldn't hire a designer without looking at a portfolio that they brought, brought you when you're hiring a programmer today, you're likely to look at the, Open source …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Srinivasan: Education will shift from upfront fixed commitments to on-demand learning
“One of my candidates for an industry entering the end of ownership or that may eventually is education in the sense that, you know, you have a huge upfront commitment of K through 12 and then four years of college and then maybe grad school and so on. And you …”
Assertion Contradicted
Moore: OpenClaw Is the Most-Starred GitHub Repository of All Time
“So now it's, I think, number one GitHub stars of all time. It passed React, it passed Linux.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ayrey: Most GitHub code used in AI training is insecure
“Most of the training data it's training on is insecure, right? You've got a huge, huge corpus of insecure data on GitHub and a small minority of it was written securely.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ayrey: LLMs generate placeholder secrets rather than leaking live API keys
“For the most part, if you ask it to integrate with GitHub, it saw a plethora of different GitHub's keys and it's training data and it didn't regurgitate a specific one. It either regurgitate an example or like a put your thing in here, right?”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
De la Garza: Leaked AWS credentials led to $500K in unauthorized mining
“There's one company that I heard of that checked their credentials for AWS into their GitHub repo on accident, mistake that people make. Within a couple of hours, they had run up about 500,000 dollars of AWS compute charges as people tried to mine Bitcoin.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wanstrath: Over 40 million people globally write software beyond full-time developers
“We think there are twenty million people employed that are writing code, but the idea of what a programmer is, someone who writes software in their free time, or even professionally, that's not counted in a programmer, it's way more than twenty million, it's w…”
Disclosure
Wanstrath: Non-technical teams like marketing are migrating from Jira to GitHub
“We also see our customers, people that used to use Jira, people that are in the marketing team that want to update just some copy on a website, they're increasingly moving to something like GitHub, and they're also giving us feature requests specifically for t…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rogers: GitHub eliminated cultural acclimation barriers in open source
“And one of the things that GitHub has done is completely removed all of that cultural acclimation.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rogers: GitHub developers actively care about contributing to established projects
“The negative thing that I always hear is that, like, GitHub is just a bunch of people dicking around with their own thing, and they don't care about contributing to projects that are established, right? Which is, like, actually not true.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rogers: GitHub has won as the identity manager for code collaboration
“GitHub is a general kind of collaborative platform, and they are essentially the identity manager for collaboration online, particularly code collaboration. They've won that battle.”
Insight
Rogers: GitHub drove modular software design by reducing micro-project overhead
“So I think that one of the things that GitHub solved was they made it very low cost to have a lot of smaller projects, and so what you're seeing is that basically large projects, large applications are assembled out of many, many tiny components.”
Assertion Partly supported
Sonal Chokshi: Germany published its legal statutes on GitHub
“When in the early days when countries like Germany put their entire code, their laws in GitHub, and people, everyone essentially became an open source contributor.”
Disclosure
Lingelbach uses Claude with GitHub and Linear as an AI product manager
“One of these really exciting use cases of AI is like automating a lot of, you know, these processes that you have to go through as a founder. Like, I recently started using, like, Claude with, like, linear, and Notion, and GitHub integration as, like, a micro …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wanstrath: Only 30% of GitHub's web traffic originates from North America
“Only 30% of GitHub's traffic comes from North America”
Assertion Partly supported
McCullough: GitHub hosts 35 million projects and 11 million users
“We're talking about thirty-five million projects right now, and eleven million users.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wanstroth: GitHub dogfoods its own issue tracker for internal sales communication
“There's a, we have a GitHub repository internally called GitHub Sales, and the salespeople do talk a lot in issues there, but it's the same exact place where engineers are talking. It's the same exact place where really everyone in the company is talking. So w…”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Mars: Open-source Sirius AI system ranked number one on GitHub
“It was number one on GitHub for a couple weeks.”
Disclosure
Wanstrath: GitHub raised in 2012 to expand into business software
“We first decided to raise investment in 2012 after we were around four years old because we wanted to branch out from our own personal networks of Software developers, from programmers, we wanted to get into the world of business, we wanted to really expand Gi…”
Disclosure
Wanstroth: GitHub achieved early product-market fit organically without sales
“We initially built GitHub just for ourselves and people who are like us, and so that's where we found a lot of the product market fit, was that the product sort of marketed itself.”