why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Balaji Srinivasan: AI cannot replace distribution moats, disproving the SaaS apocalypse
“I don't think so, because I think if they're smart, then the thing that AI can't do is distribution, right? So if you have Notion, you have Figma, you have, you know, Replit and so on and so forth, you've got all these people and Boom. You can ship with AI fas…”
Assertion Supported
Field: Figma did not spend years in development before contacting users
“I think that everyone that talks to me and says, hey we're trying to build our startup like Figma. We're going to take years to develop it. And we'll go talk to the, our first user. And I'm like, first of all, it's not what we did.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Field: Code-based AI models will generate UI designs better than diffusion
“One outcome might be that we find more success with models that are similar to CodePilot than you do with like a diffusion model, for example, when you're trying to figure out how do you actually create designs using AI systems.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yang: Designers Who Ignore Vibe Coding Will Soon Be Obsolete
“As a designer, you kind of need to learn how to vibe code. Otherwise, you're going to, like, if you want to know how to do Figma, like, you're probably going to be, like, out of date in a couple of years.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rocha: Uber designer spent two weeks prototyping with Cursor instead of Figma
“This is a designer that works at Uber, and he was telling me how, like, for the past two weeks, he didn't open Figma. He was just building all these prototypes using Cursor, using vZero, using these tools that are now available for folks.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
George: Figma lowered gross margins for AI distribution without investor backlash
“Figma, for example, like, when they went out, they are extremely high gross margin, and they're like, hey, we're gonna, you know, pretty aggressively distribute our AI tools, and our gross margins are gonna go down, and You know, investors asked a few clarifyi…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Masad: Replit users are building functional software in 30-minute increments
“And we're seeing people making software in a 30 minute increments. Someone the other day put a request for a landing page up. They attached a figma file. They got it back in 30 minutes. That's really never been done before.”
Assertion Supported
Field: Figma documents are structured as abstract syntax trees
“On a technical level, if you look at the actual internal structure of Figma document, It's much more similar to an abstract syntax tree and less similar to like some image.”