The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Partly supported
Verdian: Cursor recently raised at a $400M valuation on $3M ARR
“Tell me if I'm wrong, three million ARR, four hundred million dollar round, or somewhere maybe around there.”
Aram Verdian Sep 10, 2026 ▶ 22:48 Why Investors Are Rethinking Everything for the AI Era
Assertion Supported
Bornstein: Startups like Cursor and Harvey shifted to open source for customization
“But I do think we passed a threshold in like, I want to say about a year ago where a bunch of smaller companies or like new application companies, as they were trying to figure out, how do I really build an AI? Without just being a wrapper on top of open AI, t…”
Matt Bornstein Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 7:19 How Open Source Became AI's Backbone | Inferact with a16z
Assertion Supported
Casado: OpenAI, Anthropic, and Cursor show tremendous real growth
“The reality is, is open AI has grown tremendously, and Anthropic has grown tremendously, and Cursor has grown tremendously, and so, like, there is some underlying market signals To fuel the chaos.”
Martin Casado Sep 4, 2025 ▶ 18:45 Is Non-Consensus Investing Overrated?
Assertion Supported
Casado: Early AI coding tools reached $400M to $600M in ARR
“The first kind of monetized AI app was code, right? It was Copilot, and so Microsoft had invested a ton of money and matured the market with Copilot, with VS Code, and so everybody knew it. It's just, like, the models weren't quite ready then, and so you had, …”
Martin Casado Aug 22, 2025 ▶ 12:36 The State of AI: Growth, Fragmentation, and the Next Wave
Assertion Supported
Casado: Cursor acquired Graphite as a larger strategic M&A move
“It wasn't until later like, the graphite acquisition, where they started thinking about acquisitions in terms of strategic direction. And of course, that was a much larger acquisition.”
Martin Casado Aug 27, 2026 ▶ 36:13 How Cursor Built One of AI’s Fastest-Growing Companies
Assertion Supported
Truell: Cursor's first acquisition was Supermaven, founded by Tabnine's creator
“The first real M&A we did was SuperMaven. And so This as just one concrete example, this was a team of five people. It was started by the person who had built Copilot, GitHub Copilot before GitHub Copilot, which was tab nine and was also a researcher at OpenAI”
Michael Truell Nov 10, 2025 ▶ 24:08 Michael Truell: How Cursor Builds at the Speed of AI
Assertion Partly supported
Horowitz: Cursor Uses 13 Different AI Models for Programming
“And so if you look at cursor cursor consists, I think, of 13 different AI models, all which kind of model different aspects of how you program, how you speak to a programmer, et cetera. And those models end up being very important, so important that they In fa…”
Ben Horowitz Jan 13, 2026 ▶ 23:11 Ben Horowitz on Investing in AI: AI Bubbles, Economic Impact, and VC Acceleration
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