The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 5 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2035
Keith Rabois predicts iPhones won't be primary computing devices in 10 years
“Where are we going to be using, you know, your iPhone as your personal computing device five years out? Maybe. 10 years out, almost surely not.”
Keith Rabois Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 15:10 Keith Rabois: Israel, OpenAI, Opendoor, and DOGE
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2019
Chen: Apple will never make an Apple Watch compatible with Android
“So you're never, you're not going to see watch that works with an Android phone, right? Like, they're just not going to do that.”
Frank Chen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 27:29 a16z Podcast | Apple Takes on Payments and Your Wrist
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2020
Evans: Apple will eventually release a $300 iPhone
“They could do a 300 dollar phone now that would be a great phone. It would, you would not feel, ah, Johnny, I wouldn't feel ashamed of it. I feel like that's a question of when rather than if”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:54 a16z Podcast | The Year Mobile Began to Truly Dominate Tech
Assertion Open · timeframe Jan 2015
Evans: iPad sales are trending down with record low average prices
“For the iPad numbers and sales, it's not a record low, but sales have been trending flat to down for the last 18 months to two years, and it's a record low ASP, record low average selling price.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 15:27 a16z Podcast | Mobile is Eating the World (and Apple is Gobbling Fastest)
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2015
Evans: Apple is the world's 10th largest retailer by revenue
“Apple is the 10th largest retailer on earth by revenue, with over fifty three billion dollars of sales last year”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 4:19 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016
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