The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 65 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Not checkable as stated
Evans: Sub-$50 Androids make charging and data the main adoption barriers
“In fact, the main barrier to adoption is actually data pricing and the ability to charge your phone. It's not access to a smartphone itself because Android is now dropping well under 50 dollars for a unit.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 2:04 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2014
Assertion Contradicted
Evans: 95% of Android devices ship with Google Mobile Services
“Well, 95% of devices have got GMS”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:04 a16z Podcast | So Where Are We on the 'S-curve' for PC Devices?
Assertion Supported
Wholesale entry-level 3G Android phones cost $25-$30 and 4G cost $40
“And incidentally, the entry price of an Android, three G Android phone now, with half a gig of memory, is probably 40 to 50, no. 25 to 30 dollars wholesale. And then four G is more like 40 dollars.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 11:20 a16z Podcast | Mobile Falls Hard for Virtual Reality
Assertion Contradicted
Evans: iOS and Android ship 1.5B units annually with 3B active devices
“IOS, Android, doing over one and a half billion units this year, and probably over three billion of those things in the world today.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:40 a16z Podcast | The Year Mobile Began to Truly Dominate Tech
Assertion Supported
Evans: Unsubsidized Android smartphones now cost as little as $30 to $40
“A mobile entry price of a mobile phone now is five to 10 dollars to buy the phone, and an Android phone is 30 to 40 dollars, and that's not subsidized price, that's the actual price of buying the thing.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 12:15 a16z Podcast | A Copernican Update ... In Tech, the Smartphone is the Center
Assertion Supported
Evans: Samsung once controlled half of the global Android market by volume
“Samsung had half of the Android market by volume, more or less, and so that was kind of concerning for Google, that you had this big, powerful partner.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 10:33 a16z Podcast | Mobile is Eating the World (and Apple is Gobbling Fastest)
Assertion Supported
Android smartphones in Myanmar cost less than early African feature phones
“It's now cheaper to get an Android-based smartphone, you know, made in China or elsewhere than it was to buy a candy bar phone in Africa back when they were coming online.”
David Madden Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 29:39 a16z Podcast | Technology and the Opening of Myanmar
Assertion Supported
Google: Average Android user checks their phone 120 times daily
“They gave a statistic in the event of let me kind of check my notes the number of people who yeah, Android, an average Android user checks their phone a 120 times a day”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 13:28 a16z Podcast | Google I/O -- A Three-Hour Tour (in 30 minutes)
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: iPhone ASP is $600 compared to Android's $250 average
“They sell a phone that an average of 600 dollars, In an industry that averages about a 180, and Android averages about 250. And in the high-end space, they have, as it might be, two thirds to three quarters of the market, and Samsung has most of the rest.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 18:56 a16z Podcast | The Apple WWDC 2014 Deep Dive
Assertion Supported
Evans: One-third of the global Android market operates without Google services
“There's two-thirds of Android, which is the one that Google gives numbers for, is outside China, and then there's another third of Android, which is in China, and doesn't have Google Play on it or Google Maps on it”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 11:11 a16z Podcast | China and Tech
Assertion Partly supported
Apple holds 10% and Android 45-50% of global phone sales
“In as much as Apple has about, well, in the launch quarter, they have about 10% of all the phones sold on Earth, and Android has another 45 to 50% although only about two-thirds of those are Google Android and one-third are in China and don't have any Google s…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 0:54 a16z Podcast | Apple and Google Won the Mobile OS War, But a New War Has Already Begun
Assertion Supported
Frank Chen: Android speech recognition stems from Hinton and Bengio's research
“Worked on elaboration of these neural networks called deep belief networks, and their research led directly to what you use every day in Android if you talk to Android. So the speech-to-text algorithms that are in Android are direct descendants of some of Jeff…”
Frank Chen Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 22:58 AI, Deep Learning, and Machine Learning: A Primer
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Apple holds 15% of global phone sales, Android 50-60%
“Apple has about 15% of all the phones sold on Earth, and Android is the next 50 to 60%, and then the rest are feature phones that are converting very fast to those 35 dollar Androids I talked about earlier.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 13:24 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2015
Assertion Supported
Evans: Android entry prices dropped to $30 to $40 in 2015
“The average price of an Android device, on the other hand, is currently about 250 dollars, and the entry price for Android today is only 30 or 40 dollars.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 3:18 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2015
Insight
Evans: Cheap Android devices drive rapid smartphone adoption in emerging markets
“Not a smartphone yet, but that's converting quite quickly to smartphones. And of course the thing that drives that is cheap Android.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 2:56 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2015
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple has 10% of global phone sales vs Android's 50%
“Apple has maybe 10% of all the phones being sold on Earth, but Android has maybe 50%.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 3:11 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2014
Assertion Supported
Evans: Standard Android is too resource-heavy for simple smart home devices
“Essentially, if you've got a connected light bulb, or connected thermostat, or something, Android probably doesn't fit on that device, just because it's too small and too cheap, and not, hasn't got enough memory or, and CPU storage.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 23:21 a16z Podcast | For Google, Android is a Tactic and Cloud is a Strategy
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