The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 99 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Chen: Deep learning will outperform trained radiologists within five years
“It takes five years to train a radiologist, and in five years, deep learning will get better results than a trained radiologist, so we should stop training them right now.”
Jennings: Block's >40% RIF heavily targeted software developers over sales
“We did a reduction in force that was, you know, slightly greater than 40%. And that wasn't even you know, to the conversation we were just having, the tools were flowing through really meaningfully on the development side. And so the cuts were way larger on th…”
Michael: Inherited Pentagon AI contracts created dangerous vendor lock-in
“Well, they came up now because as I started to look at the contracts that had been written during the last administration for the use of AI. I had a whole, holy cow moment because there were things not well beyond what you've been hearing in the press in the l…”
Mares: Coca-Cola spent $140M influencing US nutrition guidelines over 15 years
“Coca-Cola spending one hundred forty million dollars to influence our nutrition guidelines like they have over the last, you know, 15 years.”
Baker: Google surpassed OpenAI and Anthropic in total AI traffic
“I think they've taken 15 or 20 points of traffic share in the last two or three months, and that does not, that's just traffic to Gemini. It does not include search overviews. I suspect on a actual traffic basis, Google is bigger than OpenAI, Anthropic, anyone…”
Labenz: Claude 4 system card documented AI blackmailing a human engineer
“In the cloud four system card, they reported blackmailing of the human. The setup was that the AI had access to the engineer's email and They told the AI that it was going to be like replaced with a, you know, a less ethical version or something like that. It …”
Kupor: Federal workforce will shrink by 300,000 employees due to DOGE
“We've done a lot of work over the course of this year, a lot of which was catalyzed by Elon and the Doge team. As a result, we expect probably that we'll end up with somewhere around 2.1 million employees at the end of the year, so roughly about a 300,000 redu…”
Bhattacharya: NIH funded the Wuhan lab without the capability to audit it
“The NIH had sent money to the Wuhan lab but we couldn't audit it.”
Andreessen: Chinese manufacturer DJI is US Defense Department's primary drone supplier
“DJI is the most widely used drone today by many, many large, you know, American customers, including the United States Department of Defense. Right. The DOD's primary drone supplier is DJI.”
Horowitz: Google and Microsoft use safety rhetoric to lobby against open-source AI
“And they do it like the really kind of nasty thing is they claim, oh, it's for safety. You know, we've created an alien that we can't control, but we're not going to stop working on it. We're going to keep building it as fast as we can. And we're going to buy …”
Gallagher: Hundreds of billions in US capital fund Chinese military tech
“We have trillions, billions, probably hundreds of billions of dollars, American dollars that are flowing into Chinese technology and military companies that are building things like aircraft carriers, artillery shells, fighter jets, things that are designed to…”
Robbins: Stanford study found his program eliminated depression in 100% of participants
“100% of the people that they put through this program after six weeks had zero expressions of depression.”
Chris Power claims 90% of US solar panels use Chinese slave labor
“90% of the solar panels in the country are being made in China by basically slave labor where millions of minority and immigrant women are being chemically castrated every year and forced into servitude.”
Dapper Dan: Gucci copied his 1980s Diane Dixon jacket design
“Gucci created this jacket that I created in the eighties for Diane Dixon.”
Ross: Declassified US estimate puts Chinese cyber IP theft above $300B annually
“When I was in government, we declassified a national intelligence estimate, which we tend not to do. Well, we declassified a national intelligence estimate that actually put a number on the amount of intellectual property theft taking place because of cyber at…”
Ross: Iranians repurposed US malware to destroy 30,000 Saudi Aramco computers
“I've seen evidence that the malware that the United States is alleged to have used against Iran it looks like, if you look at the code base, it looks like Much of that code was used by the Iranians against the Saudis in attack, in an attack against Saudi Aramc…”
Tan: San Francisco ABC affiliate refused to cover anti-Asian hate crimes
“ABC News you know, literally the mainstream media TV channel of San Francisco and the Bay Area would not cover anti-Chinese and anti-Asian crime.”
Rogers: Previous administration pressured Twitter and Meta to censor posts
“Under the prior administration included things like global engagement center censorship efforts that were the subject of the Murphy Supreme Court litigation, where the State Department Along with other organs of the executive branch would contact Twitter or Me…”
Rogers: State Department shifts digital freedom policy toward VPNs and Community Notes
“Like, that was the kind of thing that was countenanced before that's not countenanced now, and we're much friendlier to initiatives like censorship circumvention VPNs and to initiatives like X's Community Notes that put that power in the hands of the users or …”
Rogers: EU official Thierry Breton threatened Elon Musk over Trump interview
“I think, you know, one key moment in August, 20, 24 was when a now former EC European Commission official, Terry Breton, Sent a letter to Elon Musk threatening him with regulatory penalties if he aired an upcoming interview on X with then presidential candidat…”
Andreessen: Political violence in Western society is currently at an all-time low
“The fact that political violence is like an all-time low in Western society is something that people really don't talk about.”
Mares: Ketogenic diets can resolve schizophrenia, epilepsy, and bipolar symptoms
“One of the best therapies for someone that is schizophrenic or epileptic Or even, in many cases, bipolar. If you put them on a ketogenic diet, these things will, in many cases, just resolve.”
Horowitz: Post-Rampart LAPD recruited gang members who killed Notorious B.I.G.
“What happened in the LAPD with the Rampart scandal right after the Rodney King incident They had the same kind of thing. Everybody got fired, et cetera. They had trouble recruiting. They started recruiting people out of gangs and those gang members ended up, y…”
Horowitz: LAPD corruption and rogue officers protected Tupac Shakur's killers
“Well, in that case, the LAPD was corrupt, and the, well, there were literally criminals in the police force protecting the criminals who killed Tupac, and, you know, thankfully, we kind of reopened the cold case, and we caught the guy, but it's,”
Horowitz: Memphis police lowered recruitment standards enough to hire criminals
“Because of the shortage many police departments have lowered their standards. So the kind of criticism of the police was, okay, you have, and it really, like, if you looked into it, There were some, like, psychos who joined the police force. They couldn't get …”
Andreessen: Albert Einstein was pro-Stalin and favored a communist dictatorship
“Einstein was the exact opposite of a moral exemplar. Einstein was Stalinist. Like, Einstein was, like, a full-on, like, Einstein was pro-Stolic, like, not even just pro-communist, was actually, like, pro-Stalin, and Einstein thought, but, like, American democr…”
Andreessen: Sitting United States politicians literally faked their Vietnam War records
“There are sitting United States politicians in, in serious offices who like literally faked Vietnam War records.”
Keith Rabois predicts multiple countries will make peace with Israel within months
“You're gonna see lots of countries You know, make peace explicitly with Israel, which is great. Whether they join the Abraham Accords directly or indirectly, it's all gonna happen in the next six months.”
Kupor: OPM introduces forced distribution, capping top executive ratings at 30%
“So one of the things that we're doing, we just put out guidance on this, at least with respect to what are called the SES, which are the most senior level people in government, is we are effectively doing a modicum of a forced distribution. And so we put out g…”
Bhattacharya: Leucovorin restores speech in 20% of autistic kids with folate deficiency
“You know, for kids who have this folate deficiency in their brains, that, it actually works. And 20% of the kids, I think, restore speech. Up to 60% of the kids, they get much better.”
Bhattacharya: Disparity in MMR and COVID child vaccination rates reflects evidence strength
“So, the uptake of MMR in this country, the MMR vaccine is like, 95% of American parents vaccinate their kids with MMR. The evidence is, and, I think it's like, 13% of American parents vaccinated their kids for the COVID vaccine. I think that reflects the scien…”
Rampell: Coupon extensions like Honey steal affiliate attribution at checkout
“And then it's like, do you want a coupon code? Oh, why? Yes, I do. Why would I not want a coupon code? 10% off, click here. You go click here. What does it do? It redirects you to an affiliate page. It puts a cookie on your machine. It redirects you back to th…”
McCune: Current AI tech lobbying is dwarfed by decade of safety spending
“But I mean, when people are writing these articles about the fact that the AI industry is, you know, pumping all this money into the system, Certainly, like, I'm not suggesting that there's not money in the system. We're obviously active on the political and p…”
Smith: US factory construction boomed under Biden after decades of stagnation
“But when you look at factory construction, real, real factory construction, you saw this enormous, you saw it basically flat at a flat level for decades and decades at a fairly low level. Then you saw this enormous boom during the Biden years and all the facto…”
Noah Smith: Smartphone technology is driving global fertility far below replacement
“Phones have destroyed the human race. Like, the fertility crash that's happening all around the world. Nobody has replacement level fertility. Fertility is going far below replacement everywhere because of technology.”
Balaji Srinivasan: The Atlantic published an article advocating for invading Brazil
“Like, a great example is The Atlantic published this crazy piece calling for invading Brazil because they saw a photo of the Brazilian fires, ok?”
Balaji Srinivasan: NYT won Pulitzer Prizes for false Russiagate coverage
“The New York Times collected all these polizers for this, for basically false information, right?”
Horowitz: Facebook internal probe found virtually no evidence of Russian hacking
“You know, what they found in terms of the quote-unquote Russian hacking was just about effectively nothing. Like, there was nothing. And so, but the dominant media narrative Was that Facebook had been hacked by the Russians, and I think like probably half the …”
Ulevitch: Taiwan is seven days from a blackout under a Chinese blockade
“This is an island country. That is, you know, seven days away from a total energy block, blackout if they get an oil and gas blockade from China so that they can't bring in ships to deliver oil and fuel.”
Marc Andreessen: Russian Facebook ad spend during 2016 election was only $80,000
“I think the result of it was, I think it was a result of 80,000 dollars of ad spend by the Russians in, in the relevant period of the election. It was like a total of like a 140,000, but during the actual run of the election, it was 80,000 dollars, and so the …”
Topol: Mass screening detects only 14% of cancers despite massive costs
“We only pick up 14% of cancers from that mass screening, which costs over hundreds of billions of dollars a year.”
Vance: Migrant border crossings dropped 94 percent last month
“Last month, migrant crossings were down 94% to their lowest number all time, and that happened just in two months of serious Border enforcement.”
Ian Webster: Anthropic Claude censorship matches DeepSeek on Chinese political topics
“Sure. Yeah. So, I mean, the level of censorship here is like Anthropic Claude is actually on par with DeepSeq.”
Sheriff McMahill: Legalizing marijuana has failed to eradicate the black market
“The legalization of marijuana has done nothing to eradicate the black market of marijuana.”
Horowitz: Major tech and pharma CEOs couldn't get Biden administration meetings
“It's like every major, you talk to any major tech CEO of the biggest companies in the world of the, you know the biggest pharma companies in the world, none of them could get meetings with this administration.”
Andreessen: AI doomer Eliezer Yudkowsky advocates bombing data centers
“The AI version of that is, you know, Eliezer Yadkowsky's version of that is we must bomb data centers. Like, if there's a data center that we think might take off, like, if the training run starts to go too well, like, we need to send in the Air Force and be b…”