The Exchanges

Every argument clarity score on this site is built from rows on this page. Each question and answer was assessed with names hidden, the host's own answers included, on four things from 1 to 5: directness (does it answer the question asked), coherence (do the ideas follow), precision (concrete details and clear references), compression (says a lot per word). The weighted mix (30/30/25/15) is the exchange score. A person's published score averages their exchange scores on raw tape only, at least 8 of them, shrunk toward the cohort mean. Full method →

Steve McDermott no published score: only 2 usable exchanges on raw tape, and a fair score needs 8+ record → ← everyone

Every exchange below was scored with names hidden, four dimensions each from 1 to 5. An exchange's score is 0.30·directness + 0.30·coherence + 0.25·precision + 0.15·compression. The published score averages the raw tape exchange scores and shrinks small samples toward the cohort mean, so five great answers can't beat twenty good ones. Produced feed rows count only toward coarse estimates, never toward a full score.

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Answered raw tape D 5 · C 5 · P 5 · Cm 4 4.85

Q So, okay, so in that case, because I really still want a formula, goddammit, um, can you guys at least tell me then what variables go into the decision making and how they might vary, no pun intended, with both the public and the private valuations?

A Yeah, so, I mean, the, the, the way, you know, most investors think about the, you know, the ingredients of the formula that you're referring to are, uh, growth rate, the overall market size that they're addressing, the unit level economics, you know, for the, the, the majority of these private companies They're not profitable on a net income basis. You know, some may be profitable on an EBITDA basis, but really they're, they're looking at, you know, the profitability on a unit level basis and what that means as you start to look out two, three, four years and look at profitability on an overall basis at that point. So really one of the, the, the very big differences that private investors think about is, is looking out over a much longer term time horizon to look at a normal, a steady state business versus Public investors that, you know, may look out 12, 18, maybe 24 months in some of the most aggressive situations a little bit longer than that. Whereas private investors generally have to look out, you know, a little bit further than that, um, to try to see what a steady state looks like. But in terms of the, you know, going back to the ingredients, you know, they're looking at a balance between growth, profitability, uh, market size, and then you have to think about all the other more intangible elements like barriers to entry, defensibility of the model, Competitive landsca…

AI assessment note: “ingredients of the formula that you're referring to are, uh, growth rate, the overall market size”

Answered raw tape D 5 · C 5 · P 4 · Cm 3 4.45

Q really smart people share recently, especially in the context of yesterday's IPO, like how come it doesn't match the private valuation and the public? And Nicole has already shared some of the broader factors as well as some of the specific factors that go into this. What I'm really interested in hearing from you is how do you actually value a private company? Like why isn't there a single formula?

A It would make life a lot easier for there was a single formula. Unfortunately, it's more art than science. Um, and one of the things that is interesting here is that everyone's got different opinions and the vast majority of these investors in this market are all really sophisticated. They're making decisions and investing based on years of experience and their own views of the future. And those, those decisions are, are informed based on, you know, past pattern recognition and all sorts of other inputs. The unfortunate thing is there's just not a formula. They draw on some of the same fundamental techniques that public investors do in terms of looking at future cash flows and revenue multiples and EBITDA multiples. Uh, but ultimately it's informed by, uh, their view of where this specific company is, is going. And what it ultimately comes back to is, you know, this concept of art versus science. And it's really on the private side, more so than the public side is the art is a heavier component of that, uh, analysis.

AI assessment note: “They draw on some of the same fundamental techniques that public investors do”

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