Jan 2, 2019 · 33m · a16z
a16z Podcast | Google I/O -- A Three-Hour Tour (in 30 minutes)
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of the a16z Podcast, Benedict Evans and Michael Copeland analyze the major announcements from Google I/O, contrasting Google's expansion into wearables, TV, auto, and web ecosystems against Apple's developer economics and platform strategy.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →
The host as informed peer 2.6 Guest teaching 6.1 Guest disagreement 2.3 The host pushing back 2.0
speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 23:00 Dismissing Chromebook Pixel value proposition
Benedict sharply attacks the rationale of buying an expensive Chromebook Pixel to run mobile apps, pointing out that a MacBook running Chrome makes far more sense.
Hardest push from the host ▶ 32:32 Host pushes back on fragmentation concernMichael challenges Benedict's fragmentation argument by suggesting developers only care about targeting the affluent top third of device owners who can run advanced features.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 3:23 Developer payout math breakdownBenedict breaks down developer payout economics, showing that Apple paid $10 billion versus Google's $5 billion on half the user base, disproving naive market share comparisons.
The host holds their own ▶ 17:11 Host corrects guest on Chromecast price predictionWhen Benedict mentions predicting a $50 Apple dongle, Michael jumps in to point out Benedict was wrong because Google priced the Chromecast even lower at $35.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The host as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The host pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keynote Comparisons and Leadership Shifts | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | The host opens with light introductory questions about the three-hour keynote duration. Benedict dominates the segment, providing detailed context on Apple's WWDC versus Google I/O keynotes and organizational leadership shifts. | |
| Android vs. iOS: Developer Revenue and Market Demographics | 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | The host prompts with simple requests to explain numbers. Benedict educates the host on mobile developer monetization, explaining why Apple pays double the developer revenue despite having half the active user base of Android. | |
| Cloud Philosophies and Missing Keynote Announcements | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | The host contributes brief background context about Google Plus's leader leaving. Benedict expands on the broader cloud philosophy differences between Apple and Google, noting how Google is stepping into Microsoft's former role as the ubiquitous platform. | |
| Android Wear and Smartwatch Utility | 2 | 6 | 3 | 2 | The host asks basic clarification questions about smartwatch hardware manufacturing. Benedict takes a skeptical stance, dissecting developer design constraints for circular screens and calling smartwatch email reading a poor experience. | |
| Android Auto, Health, and Android TV Strategy | 3 | 7 | 3 | 2 | The host jokes about Chromecast pricing and asks about auto/TV platforms. Benedict explains why tech companies struggle to disrupt TV due to entrenched cable content licensing structures rather than interface limitations. | |
| Chromebook Android Integration and App vs. Web Paradigms | 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | The host references past discussions about mobile complexity versus web. Benedict points out the absurdity of running phone apps on expensive Chromebook Pixels while laying out a five-year strategic vision of blurring native apps and web pages. | |
| Android One, Software Fragmentation, and Developer Economics | 4 | 7 | 3 | 4 | The host pushes back, proposing that developers might only target top-tier devices to avoid fragmentation issues. Benedict counters with hard developer economics, demonstrating that Android requires four times the users to match iOS revenue. |
Statements from this episode (20)
Apple reorganized into a horizontal structure under Craig Federighi
“A, they'd moved from a vertical to horizontal integration organization. So you have Craig Federiga responsible for all the software, for example.”
Google unified Apps, Android, and Chrome leadership under Sundar Pichai
“They now have Sundar Running both apps and Android and Chrome, so they've got, again, they've got all the future stuff under one person”
Google has never disclosed revenue data for Google Play
“They haven't given any statistics at all on Android in nine months and they haven't, they've never given any data on Google Play. I mean, they've given app downloads, but they've never given revenue data”
Evans: Google Play paid $5B to developers over 12 months
“All that they paid out five billion dollars to developers in the last 12 months and two billion in the previous 12 months.”
Evans: Apple generates double Android's developer revenue on half the devices
“And if you look at the revenue growth rate, the run rate growth rate, that means that Apple probably paid out ten billion in the last 12 months. And there are, as it might be, four hundred fifty million active iOS devices on Earth, so Apple is doing double the…”
Evans: iPhones average $600 while Android phones average $250-$300
“Another reason is that iPhones average 600 dollars, and Android phones seem to average about 250 to 300 dollars.”
Evans: Apple views cloud as app backend while Google treats cloud as platform
“WWDC was full of cloud, but it was all about cloud as backend to rich native apps. Whereas I.O. Was all about cloud as cloud.”
Evans: Google Glass was an experimental product test that failed
“Google's been incredibly quiet on glass for years. And, you know, the thing is really, you know, it's gone nowhere. You know, just, you know, we don't know. Maybe there'll be something will happen. Maybe it won't. But it feels like it was out there. It was a t…”
Evans: Google is the new Microsoft in its universal computing platform ambition
“I think there's a macro point here that Google is the new Microsoft, and this is the thing that came out really strongly last year, and indeed this year, is the sort of self-confidence and the ambition to do absolutely everything to become the global computing…”
Google: Average Android user checks their phone 120 times daily
“They gave a statistic in the event of let me kind of check my notes the number of people who yeah, Android, an average Android user checks their phone a 120 times a day”
Evans: Smartwatch email notifications and tiny-screen reading offer zero value
“A device that tells you have new email has zero value, actually. A device that tells you who you've got new email from actually kind of has zero value. A device that lets you read that email two or two lines at a time or three lines at a time has zero value.”
Evans: Android Auto won't take off fast due to car replacement cycles
“The challenge is, you know, ten-year replacement cycles, so it's not going to take off.”
Evans: Logitech lost hundreds of millions writing off Google TV inventory
“Yeah, Logitech got lost an enormous amount of money. That's like hundreds of millions of dollars writing off of inventory.”
Evans: Disrupting TV requires content ownership like mobile disruption requires spectrum
“If you were to say to me, I'm going to disrupt the mobile business, I would say to you, with what spectrum? And if you have no answer to that, then I'm not interested. And the same, in the same sense, if you say to me, I'm going to disrupt the TV business, the…”
Evans: The wall between web and native apps is fading away
“All of this sort of, this kind of Berlin wall that you have between the web and native code is fading away.”
Evans: Smartphones unbundled the internet from the web browser
“What the smartphone did was unbundle the internet from the web and amongst many other things.”
Evans: Mobile apps will be re-bundled within five years
“We've had this massive unbundling, and that unbundling is getting more and more complex and sophisticated, and it's all going to get bundled back up again at some point, in some way, in like five years.”
Evans: 93% of Google Play Devices Run Latest Play Services
“Google Play Services ships a new version every six weeks. 93% of the devices that are hitting Google Play are on the latest version.”