Jan 2, 2019 · 25m · a16z

a16z Podcast | Messaging is the Medium

Benedict Evans · 20m spoken Michael Copeland · 2m spoken
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In this episode of the a16z Podcast, Benedict Evans and host Michael Copeland examine how mobile messaging platforms, push notifications, and unbundled software architectures are reshaping smartphone user experiences and redefining platform power dynamics.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →

The host as informed peer 2.0 Guest teaching 3.3 Guest disagreement 1.0 The host pushing back 1.0
05100:0010:0020:000:00–3:06 · The host as informed peer 2/10 The Smartphone as a Social Platform Host Michael Copeland introduces Benedict Evans's thesis regarding smartphones as social platforms and Facebook's role. Evans politely interrupts and reframes the host's premise, noting that Facebook has been driving catch-up through acquisitions rather than creating new social behaviors since the newsfeed.3:06–8:51 · The host as informed peer 2/10 Facebook Messenger Platform Strategy and Unbundling Evans lays out the Mechanics of Facebook Messenger unbundling its platform and acting as a gatekeeper for mobile content. Copeland asks clarifying prompts about platform ownership and viral growth dynamics.8:51–13:50 · The host as informed peer 3/10 Notifications as a New Mobile Runtime Evans explains how notifications function as an emerging secondary mobile runtime for Apple and Google. Copeland offers brief commentary, noting the shift feels like a Trojan horse strategy against mobile operating systems.13:50–17:21 · The host as informed peer 2/10 Mobile Stack Control and the Bundling Cycle Copeland synthesizes Evans's points by asking if notifications are becoming a new portal layer. Evans outlines the historical bundling and unbundling software cycles using Jim Barksdale's famous maxim.17:21–24:55 · The host as informed peer 2/10 Developer Choices and Platform Boundaries Evans details platform risks for developers choosing between independent app installs and Facebook's Messenger graph. He educates the host on why messaging content risk differs from historical newsfeed algorithmic filtering.24:55–25:12 · The host as informed peer 1/10 Conclusion and Mobile Platform Outlook Brief wrap-up segment where host Michael Copeland thanks Benedict Evans and closes the episode.0:00–3:06 · Guest teaching 3/10 The Smartphone as a Social Platform Host Michael Copeland introduces Benedict Evans's thesis regarding smartphones as social platforms and Facebook's role. Evans politely interrupts and reframes the host's premise, noting that Facebook has been driving catch-up through acquisitions rather than creating new social behaviors since the newsfeed.3:06–8:51 · Guest teaching 4/10 Facebook Messenger Platform Strategy and Unbundling Evans lays out the Mechanics of Facebook Messenger unbundling its platform and acting as a gatekeeper for mobile content. Copeland asks clarifying prompts about platform ownership and viral growth dynamics.8:51–13:50 · Guest teaching 4/10 Notifications as a New Mobile Runtime Evans explains how notifications function as an emerging secondary mobile runtime for Apple and Google. Copeland offers brief commentary, noting the shift feels like a Trojan horse strategy against mobile operating systems.13:50–17:21 · Guest teaching 4/10 Mobile Stack Control and the Bundling Cycle Copeland synthesizes Evans's points by asking if notifications are becoming a new portal layer. Evans outlines the historical bundling and unbundling software cycles using Jim Barksdale's famous maxim.17:21–24:55 · Guest teaching 5/10 Developer Choices and Platform Boundaries Evans details platform risks for developers choosing between independent app installs and Facebook's Messenger graph. He educates the host on why messaging content risk differs from historical newsfeed algorithmic filtering.24:55–25:12 · Guest teaching 0/10 Conclusion and Mobile Platform Outlook Brief wrap-up segment where host Michael Copeland thanks Benedict Evans and closes the episode.0:00–3:06 · Guest disagreement 2/10 The Smartphone as a Social Platform Host Michael Copeland introduces Benedict Evans's thesis regarding smartphones as social platforms and Facebook's role. Evans politely interrupts and reframes the host's premise, noting that Facebook has been driving catch-up through acquisitions rather than creating new social behaviors since the newsfeed.3:06–8:51 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Facebook Messenger Platform Strategy and Unbundling Evans lays out the Mechanics of Facebook Messenger unbundling its platform and acting as a gatekeeper for mobile content. Copeland asks clarifying prompts about platform ownership and viral growth dynamics.8:51–13:50 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Notifications as a New Mobile Runtime Evans explains how notifications function as an emerging secondary mobile runtime for Apple and Google. Copeland offers brief commentary, noting the shift feels like a Trojan horse strategy against mobile operating systems.13:50–17:21 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Mobile Stack Control and the Bundling Cycle Copeland synthesizes Evans's points by asking if notifications are becoming a new portal layer. Evans outlines the historical bundling and unbundling software cycles using Jim Barksdale's famous maxim.17:21–24:55 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Developer Choices and Platform Boundaries Evans details platform risks for developers choosing between independent app installs and Facebook's Messenger graph. He educates the host on why messaging content risk differs from historical newsfeed algorithmic filtering.24:55–25:12 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Conclusion and Mobile Platform Outlook Brief wrap-up segment where host Michael Copeland thanks Benedict Evans and closes the episode.0:00–3:06 · The host pushing back 2/10 The Smartphone as a Social Platform Host Michael Copeland introduces Benedict Evans's thesis regarding smartphones as social platforms and Facebook's role. Evans politely interrupts and reframes the host's premise, noting that Facebook has been driving catch-up through acquisitions rather than creating new social behaviors since the newsfeed.3:06–8:51 · The host pushing back 1/10 Facebook Messenger Platform Strategy and Unbundling Evans lays out the Mechanics of Facebook Messenger unbundling its platform and acting as a gatekeeper for mobile content. Copeland asks clarifying prompts about platform ownership and viral growth dynamics.8:51–13:50 · The host pushing back 1/10 Notifications as a New Mobile Runtime Evans explains how notifications function as an emerging secondary mobile runtime for Apple and Google. Copeland offers brief commentary, noting the shift feels like a Trojan horse strategy against mobile operating systems.13:50–17:21 · The host pushing back 1/10 Mobile Stack Control and the Bundling Cycle Copeland synthesizes Evans's points by asking if notifications are becoming a new portal layer. Evans outlines the historical bundling and unbundling software cycles using Jim Barksdale's famous maxim.17:21–24:55 · The host pushing back 1/10 Developer Choices and Platform Boundaries Evans details platform risks for developers choosing between independent app installs and Facebook's Messenger graph. He educates the host on why messaging content risk differs from historical newsfeed algorithmic filtering.24:55–25:12 · The host pushing back 0/10 Conclusion and Mobile Platform Outlook Brief wrap-up segment where host Michael Copeland thanks Benedict Evans and closes the episode.

speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

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Sharpest disagreement ▶ 2:29 Correction on Facebook's innovation track record

Evans directly interrupts and reframes Copeland's assertion that Facebook is driving behavior, flatly stating Facebook hasn't created new behavior since the newsfeed and relies on acquisition catch-ups.

Hardest push from the host ▶ 2:47 Host insists on Facebook's market power

Copeland refuses to let go of his core argument, restating that whether through acquisition or organic creation, Facebook is actively driving consumer behavior.

Biggest teaching moment ▶ 18:00 Differentiating newsfeed platform risk from messaging platform risk

Evans clearly educates Copeland on developer platform history, explaining why developers previously got burned by Facebook's algorithmic newsfeed and why messaging feeds present a fundamentally different structural relationship.

The host holds their own ▶ 16:05 Framing notifications as modern web portals

Copeland demonstrates sharp conceptual understanding by synthesizing Evans's runtime narrative into a concise question about notifications becoming the new digital portals.

the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicThe host as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementThe host pushing backWhy
The Smartphone as a Social Platform 2322 Host Michael Copeland introduces Benedict Evans's thesis regarding smartphones as social platforms and Facebook's role. Evans politely interrupts and reframes the host's premise, noting that Facebook has been driving catch-up through acquisitions rather than creating new social behaviors since the newsfeed.
Facebook Messenger Platform Strategy and Unbundling 2411 Evans lays out the Mechanics of Facebook Messenger unbundling its platform and acting as a gatekeeper for mobile content. Copeland asks clarifying prompts about platform ownership and viral growth dynamics.
Notifications as a New Mobile Runtime 3411 Evans explains how notifications function as an emerging secondary mobile runtime for Apple and Google. Copeland offers brief commentary, noting the shift feels like a Trojan horse strategy against mobile operating systems.
Mobile Stack Control and the Bundling Cycle 2411 Copeland synthesizes Evans's points by asking if notifications are becoming a new portal layer. Evans outlines the historical bundling and unbundling software cycles using Jim Barksdale's famous maxim.
Developer Choices and Platform Boundaries 2511 Evans details platform risks for developers choosing between independent app installs and Facebook's Messenger graph. He educates the host on why messaging content risk differs from historical newsfeed algorithmic filtering.
Conclusion and Mobile Platform Outlook 1000 Brief wrap-up segment where host Michael Copeland thanks Benedict Evans and closes the episode.

Statements from this episode (9)

Insight
Evans: Mobile UX Eliminates Friction for Using Multiple Social Networks
“And so all of the friction that made it difficult to use more than one social network on the desktop web goes away on mobile, or almost all of it.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 0:58
Opinion
Evans: Facebook Has Not Created New User Behavior Since News Feed
“Well, they haven't actually created any new behavior since the newsfeed. What they'done is they bought Instagram, and they bought it very early at what at the time everyone said was a ludicrously high price. At the time, it was, actually, it was a very good pr…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 2:32
Insight
Evans: Apps building solely inside Facebook Messenger cannot reach $10B valuation
“You aren't ever going to be a ten billion or twenty billion dollar company, because they're not your users, they're all Facebook users.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 7:21
Insight
Evans: Facebook Messenger strategy forces Snapchat to compete with entire app store
“So what effectively what Facebook's trying to do is make Snapchat compete with the whole app store. Because Snapchat is only going to have the content that Snapchat dreams up, whereas Facebook Messenger will have the content that anybody can dream up and decid…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 7:40
Assertion Supported
Evans: Facebook bought Instagram for 1% and WhatsApp for 10% of valuation
“They bought Instagram for whatever it was, one percent of the value of the company, and then they bought Facebook for, so then they bought WhatsApp for, say, 10% of the value of the company.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 7:59
Insight
Evans: Push notifications are evolving into a distinct mobile runtime
“What's actually happening much more broadly than Facebook Messenger is you're seeing notifications becoming another runtime on the device.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:24
Opinion
Evans: Apple Pay is more compelling inside apps than at retail checkout
“The way that I think about Apple Pay is it's not very interesting at point of sale. It's very interesting inside apps, because suddenly you don't have to enter your credit card and your billing address and your shipping address.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 13:16
Insight
Benedict Evans: Messaging app creators fundamentally oppose open standards
“There's a narrative in the industry that says we need a common standard for messaging apps, which, to me, I think, completely misunderstands the motivation of anybody who's building a messaging app. That's the last thing they want.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 17:00
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: Google could move to a web-only Chrome phone within five years
“It's entirely possible that in five years' time, Google's mobile story is a Chrome phone that only runs web apps.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 24:05
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