Jan 2, 2019 · 28m · a16z
a16z Podcast | For Google, Android is a Tactic and Cloud is a Strategy
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In this episode of the a16z podcast, analyst Benedict Evans dissects Google I/O announcements, contrasting Google's cloud-first, data-driven strategy against Apple's hardware ecosystem while examining Google's expansion into virtual reality, IoT, and emerging market connectivity.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →
The host as informed peer 2.6 Guest teaching 5.1 Guest disagreement 1.6 The host pushing back 1.4
speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 7:34 Debunking Google's Trillion Photo Stat
Evans sharply challenges Google's official statistics, pointing out that public sharing data on Facebook and Instagram alone contradicts Google's claims about total annual photos taken.
Hardest push from the host ▶ 17:22 Contrasting Apple's Binary Ecosystem with GoogleThe host refuses Evans' fluid non-binary reach framing for platforms, firmly pointing out that for Apple's hardware-centric business model, participation is strictly binary.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 11:37 Explaining OS Fragmentation DynamicsEvans educates the host on why Google I/O feels anticlimactic by contrasting iOS's 80% rapid adoption with Android Lollipop's 10% adoption, proving why Google focuses on continuous cloud updates instead.
The host holds their own ▶ 17:22 Demonstrating Strategic Distinction for AppleThe host demonstrates strong strategic domain knowledge by re-anchoring the conversation on Apple's binary ecosystem model against Evans' broader cloud reach thesis.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The host as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The host pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Google Pay, Google Photos, and Apple Ecosystem Comparison | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | The host asks basic introductory questions while Evans details the architectural trade-offs between Apple and Google. Evans explains how Apple excels at local hardware integration while Google dominates cloud-based machine learning like photo recognition. | |
| Business Models: Android as a Tactic vs. Cloud Strategy | 3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | Evans reframes Android as a tactic for Google's cloud strategy and challenges Google's statistic of one trillion photos taken annually. The host offers supportive math agreeing that shared photos represent a fraction of total shots. | |
| OS Release Cycles vs. Continuous Cloud Deployment | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | The host mentions feeling nonplussed by annual Google I/O updates compared to iOS announcements. Evans explains OS fragmentation metrics, showing why Google shifts major features into continuous Google Play Services cloud updates rather than annual OS releases. | |
| Google's Reach Model in Mobile | 4 | 5 | 2 | 4 | Evans uses a literary analogy to explain Google's non-binary reach across platforms. The host pushes back effectively, noting that for Apple's hardware business model, platform adoption remains strictly binary. | |
| Virtual Reality Announcements and 3D Video | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | The host prompts Evans on VR announcements and YouTube integration. Evans explains VR technology as the peace dividend of smartphone supply chains and compares early VR filmmaking to early cinema history. | |
| Internet of Things: Brillo, Weave, and Smart Home | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | The host inquires about Brillo, Weave, and Nest's role in smart homes. Evans explains lightweight embedded OS needs while humorously questioning whether door locks actually need to communicate with televisions. | |
| Expanding Connectivity in the Developing World | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Evans details mobile connectivity constraints in developing markets, highlighting bandwidth limits and SIM proliferation. He explains Google's server-side page transcoding technology that strips heavy design elements to load fast over 2G networks. |
Statements from this episode (15)
Evans: Android M lacks major tentpole feature improvements
“Android M, which has a bunch of perfectly worthwhile sensible improvements, some of which were in iOS, some of which will be in iOS, as is always the way with this stuff. No really big tentpole improvements, to be honest. A few little bits and pieces, and lots…”
Evans: Google's real innovation is in cloud services, not Android OS
“What's increasingly apparent from Google is that all the innovation really is happening in the Google services that get laid on top of Android, and in many cases, of course, are also available on iOS and indeed on the web.”
Evans: Android ecosystem struggles with integrated hardware without full-stack control
“Really hard for the Android ecosystem to deliver that, because nobody controls the whole stack.”
Evans: Cloud-based machine learning is in Google's DNA, not Apple's
“On the other hand, Google finds it really easy to do image recognition in the cloud of every photo you've ever taken, because that's what Google does, and Apple conversely would find it very difficult to do that. It's But theoretically they could, but it's jus…”
Evans: Google is fundamentally a vast machine learning engine focused on reach
“The fundamental way to understand Google is as a vast machine learning engine and everything that they do is about reach. And they don't really care what the reach is as long as they've got more and more of it.”
Evans: For Google, Android is a tactic; for Apple, device is strategy
“For Google, Android is a tactic, and cloud is a strategy, whereas for Apple, the device is a strategy, and the cloud is a tactic. The cloud is a feature of the core strategy, whereas for Google, the device is a feature of the core strategy.”
Evans: Streaming content is no longer strategic leverage for Apple or Google
“Once we went to streaming services, it became really, really easy to switch from device to device, and so content really isn't a strategic lever anymore. It may be, we'll see what Apple does with music next week, but, you know, for the sake of argument, right …”
Evans: Global annual photos taken likely reaches 10 to 100 trillion
“Even if you just add up the numbers from Facebook and Snapchat, Facebook and Instagram and WhatsApp and so on, you get to about eight or nine hundred billion photographs taken last year. And that's just, sorry, shared. So if there were eight or nine hundred bi…”
Evans: Consumers took 80 billion film photos globally in 1999
“Just for contrast, in to 1999, about eighty billion photos were taken by consumers on film.”
Evans: Around 95% of active Android devices run Google Play Services
“Something like 95% of all live Android devices are running the latest version of Google Play services, which is the layer that gives you all of their cloud intelligence.”
Evans: VR hardware is the peace dividend of the smartphone wars
“VR is the peace dividend of the smartphone wars. Not that it's peace, but, you know, it's the dividend of the smartphone wars is all these components.”
Evans: 3D video storytelling is at a pre-Eisenstein stage of development
“I think three D video is really at the kind of pre Eisenstein stage. You know, somebody has actually got to work out, Hey, you can cut And you can move the camera and then start filming again.”
Evans: Standard Android is too resource-heavy for simple smart home devices
“Essentially, if you've got a connected light bulb, or connected thermostat, or something, Android probably doesn't fit on that device, just because it's too small and too cheap, and not, hasn't got enough memory or, and CPU storage.”