Jan 2, 2019 · 26m · a16z

a16z Podcast | Apple Gets Its Music Streaming and Gives News Another Try

Benedict Evans · 20m spoken
0:00 / 0:00
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In this episode of the a16z podcast, analyst Benedict Evans joins the host to analyze Apple's WWDC announcements, evaluating iOS 9, iPad split-screen multitasking, on-device machine learning, WatchOS 2, and Apple's strategic expansion into news aggregation and music streaming.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →

The host as informed peer 3.3 Guest teaching 4.0 Guest disagreement 1.0 The host pushing back 2.0
05100:0010:0020:000:46–2:53 · The host as informed peer 2/10 OS X Updates vs. iOS 9 Maintenance Release The host provides light prompts and references audience reaction on Twitter regarding iPad split-screen features. Benedict Evans leads the breakdown comparing OS X to iOS 9's maintenance release structure.2:53–7:12 · The host as informed peer 3/10 Apple Proactive and On-Device Machine Learning Privacy The host asks probing questions about contextual search and developer implications under Apple's proactive features. Benedict educates on search unbundling and deep app indexing compared to Google's approach.7:12–10:33 · The host as informed peer 3/10 WatchOS 2 Developer SDK, Complications, and Independence The host joins in with playful remarks about watch independence and battery requirements. Benedict explains native app execution on WatchOS 2 and physical limits regarding cellular radios.10:33–18:53 · The host as informed peer 6/10 Apple News, Publishing Economics, and Platform Defaults The host offers notable domain knowledge about publishing workflows, challenging Apple News by citing past failures with Newsstand. Benedict details platform defaults, discovery overload, and aggregator economics.18:53–26:03 · The host as informed peer 5/10 Apple Music Strategy, Beats 1 Radio, and Curation The host demonstrates background knowledge by bringing up Apple's Lala acquisition to ask why streaming took so long. Benedict offers sharp criticism of Apple's presentation and explains internal corporate inertia.26:03–26:19 · The host as informed peer 1/10 Podcast Conclusion and Future Outlook A brief, standard wrap-up where the host thanks the guest and sets expectations for future check-ins.0:46–2:53 · Guest teaching 4/10 OS X Updates vs. iOS 9 Maintenance Release The host provides light prompts and references audience reaction on Twitter regarding iPad split-screen features. Benedict Evans leads the breakdown comparing OS X to iOS 9's maintenance release structure.2:53–7:12 · Guest teaching 5/10 Apple Proactive and On-Device Machine Learning Privacy The host asks probing questions about contextual search and developer implications under Apple's proactive features. Benedict educates on search unbundling and deep app indexing compared to Google's approach.7:12–10:33 · Guest teaching 4/10 WatchOS 2 Developer SDK, Complications, and Independence The host joins in with playful remarks about watch independence and battery requirements. Benedict explains native app execution on WatchOS 2 and physical limits regarding cellular radios.10:33–18:53 · Guest teaching 5/10 Apple News, Publishing Economics, and Platform Defaults The host offers notable domain knowledge about publishing workflows, challenging Apple News by citing past failures with Newsstand. Benedict details platform defaults, discovery overload, and aggregator economics.18:53–26:03 · Guest teaching 6/10 Apple Music Strategy, Beats 1 Radio, and Curation The host demonstrates background knowledge by bringing up Apple's Lala acquisition to ask why streaming took so long. Benedict offers sharp criticism of Apple's presentation and explains internal corporate inertia.26:03–26:19 · Guest teaching 0/10 Podcast Conclusion and Future Outlook A brief, standard wrap-up where the host thanks the guest and sets expectations for future check-ins.0:46–2:53 · Guest disagreement 1/10 OS X Updates vs. iOS 9 Maintenance Release The host provides light prompts and references audience reaction on Twitter regarding iPad split-screen features. Benedict Evans leads the breakdown comparing OS X to iOS 9's maintenance release structure.2:53–7:12 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Apple Proactive and On-Device Machine Learning Privacy The host asks probing questions about contextual search and developer implications under Apple's proactive features. Benedict educates on search unbundling and deep app indexing compared to Google's approach.7:12–10:33 · Guest disagreement 1/10 WatchOS 2 Developer SDK, Complications, and Independence The host joins in with playful remarks about watch independence and battery requirements. Benedict explains native app execution on WatchOS 2 and physical limits regarding cellular radios.10:33–18:53 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Apple News, Publishing Economics, and Platform Defaults The host offers notable domain knowledge about publishing workflows, challenging Apple News by citing past failures with Newsstand. Benedict details platform defaults, discovery overload, and aggregator economics.18:53–26:03 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Apple Music Strategy, Beats 1 Radio, and Curation The host demonstrates background knowledge by bringing up Apple's Lala acquisition to ask why streaming took so long. Benedict offers sharp criticism of Apple's presentation and explains internal corporate inertia.26:03–26:19 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Podcast Conclusion and Future Outlook A brief, standard wrap-up where the host thanks the guest and sets expectations for future check-ins.0:46–2:53 · The host pushing back 2/10 OS X Updates vs. iOS 9 Maintenance Release The host provides light prompts and references audience reaction on Twitter regarding iPad split-screen features. Benedict Evans leads the breakdown comparing OS X to iOS 9's maintenance release structure.2:53–7:12 · The host pushing back 2/10 Apple Proactive and On-Device Machine Learning Privacy The host asks probing questions about contextual search and developer implications under Apple's proactive features. Benedict educates on search unbundling and deep app indexing compared to Google's approach.7:12–10:33 · The host pushing back 1/10 WatchOS 2 Developer SDK, Complications, and Independence The host joins in with playful remarks about watch independence and battery requirements. Benedict explains native app execution on WatchOS 2 and physical limits regarding cellular radios.10:33–18:53 · The host pushing back 4/10 Apple News, Publishing Economics, and Platform Defaults The host offers notable domain knowledge about publishing workflows, challenging Apple News by citing past failures with Newsstand. Benedict details platform defaults, discovery overload, and aggregator economics.18:53–26:03 · The host pushing back 3/10 Apple Music Strategy, Beats 1 Radio, and Curation The host demonstrates background knowledge by bringing up Apple's Lala acquisition to ask why streaming took so long. Benedict offers sharp criticism of Apple's presentation and explains internal corporate inertia.26:03–26:19 · The host pushing back 0/10 Podcast Conclusion and Future Outlook A brief, standard wrap-up where the host thanks the guest and sets expectations for future check-ins.

speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%0:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%15:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%15:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%18:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%18:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%21:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%21:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%24:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%24:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 24:06 Critique of Apple Music Keynote

Benedict mockingly criticizes Apple's presentation as woolly and out-of-touch middle-aged men trying to adapt to modern music culture.

Hardest push from the host ▶ 12:15 Apple News vs Newsstand Deja Vu

The host directly challenges the novelty of Apple's announcement, noting it feels like a repeat of the failed Newsstand effort.

Biggest teaching moment ▶ 17:40 Default Power of Apple Maps

Benedict educates the host on platform default power by citing Apple Maps' overwhelming usage over Google Maps on iOS.

The host holds their own ▶ 22:23 Citing Apple's Lala Acquisition History

The host showcases domain knowledge by recalling Apple's acquisition of Lala years prior to press Benedict on why Apple lagged in streaming.

the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicThe host as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementThe host pushing backWhy
OS X Updates vs. iOS 9 Maintenance Release 2412 The host provides light prompts and references audience reaction on Twitter regarding iPad split-screen features. Benedict Evans leads the breakdown comparing OS X to iOS 9's maintenance release structure.
Apple Proactive and On-Device Machine Learning Privacy 3512 The host asks probing questions about contextual search and developer implications under Apple's proactive features. Benedict educates on search unbundling and deep app indexing compared to Google's approach.
WatchOS 2 Developer SDK, Complications, and Independence 3411 The host joins in with playful remarks about watch independence and battery requirements. Benedict explains native app execution on WatchOS 2 and physical limits regarding cellular radios.
Apple News, Publishing Economics, and Platform Defaults 6514 The host offers notable domain knowledge about publishing workflows, challenging Apple News by citing past failures with Newsstand. Benedict details platform defaults, discovery overload, and aggregator economics.
Apple Music Strategy, Beats 1 Radio, and Curation 5623 The host demonstrates background knowledge by bringing up Apple's Lala acquisition to ask why streaming took so long. Benedict offers sharp criticism of Apple's presentation and explains internal corporate inertia.
Podcast Conclusion and Future Outlook 1000 A brief, standard wrap-up where the host thanks the guest and sets expectations for future check-ins.

Statements from this episode (14)

Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple OS X has roughly 80 million users
“So we have OSX, which is a platform that has about eighty million users”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 0:47
Opinion
Evans: OS X is a legacy platform, not Apple's future
“That's the legacy platform. That's not the platform of the future.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:07
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple iOS has 700M to 800M active devices
“And then there's a platform with eight, seven or eight hundred million active devices, iOS.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:10
Prediction Held up
Evans: iOS split-screen multitasking will not reignite iPad sales growth
“It's not going to, you know, suddenly reignite sales of iPad growth sales growth, but, you know, it may change what it means to use it a bit.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 2:46
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple Proactive processes ML locally on-device rather than cloud
“The difference, of course, is that Apple says it's all being done on the device. It's not going into the cloud.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:30
Insight
Computers should never ask questions they can calculate themselves
“There's an old computer science saying that a computer should never ask you a question it should be able to work out the answer to.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:52
Insight
Apple and Google are killing the ten blue links
“I think what Apple and Google are both doing is killing the list of 10 links. The 10 blue links.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:20
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Evans: WatchOS 2 includes features delayed from original Apple Watch launch
“It basically, it looks like this is all the stuff that Apple wanted to have in the launch, but they didn't have time to make the deadline.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 7:25
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: Cellular connectivity for Apple Watch will take a long time
“There's a rule, there's a law of physics problem in putting a cellular radio in there, or, and the battery to power cellular radio. And so that will take a lot, that will take a lot longer, I suspect.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:56
Insight
Web curation mechanisms collapse when scaled to the entire web
“And then you layer any discovery mechanism that you lay onto that works until you try and encompass the whole of the web, and then it just collapses under its own weight.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 16:48
Assertion Partly supported
Apple Maps has 3.5x more iOS users than Google Maps
“That Apple Maps has three and a half times more users than Google Maps on iOS.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 17:36
Insight
Photos have replaced music as the primary mobile ecosystem lock-in
“Incidentally, photos to some extent have replaced music as a lock-in.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 19:30
Opinion
Evans: Beats 1 radio is marketing, not a core feature
“That feels to me a bit like the gold Apple watch. It's like, that's not the thing to focus on. It's an interesting piece of marketing.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 20:36
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Apple missed streaming music like Google missed social media
“Yeah, I mean, I think, well, for music, there's no question that music, Apple dominated music, and they missed the transition to streaming completely, just as Google missed social completely.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 24:43
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