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Jan 2, 2019 · 17m · a16z

a16z Podcast | The Micro and Macro of Mobile

Benedict Evans · 14m spoken Michael Copeland · 1m spoken
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Host Michael Copeland and tech analyst Benedict Evans explore the micro and macro economics of the mobile ecosystem, covering app store revenue disparities, tablet replacement lifecycles, enterprise adoption, and mobile's massive expansion over traditional personal computing.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →

The host as informed peer 2.7 Guest teaching 4.7 Guest disagreement 1.3 The host pushing back 2.3
05100:0010:003:56–7:25 · The host as informed peer 2/10 iPad Sales Trends and Tablet Upgrade Dynamics Michael Copeland asks brief clarifying questions regarding flat iPad sales and user upgrade habits. Benedict Evans explains why consumer upgrade cycles resemble PCs rather than phones, gently clarifying that flat sales do not mean a declining user base.7:25–12:14 · The host as informed peer 4/10 Apple-IBM Deal and Transforming Enterprise Workflows Copeland actively challenges Evans by asking why enterprise tablet deployment needs handholding when consumer adoption was self-serve. Evans explains the necessity of enterprise workflow integration using real-world examples like Hertz car rentals and airport baggage tracking.12:14–17:38 · The host as informed peer 2/10 PC Equivalents, Mobile Multipliers, and Market Opportunity Evans leads a detailed monologue outlining the concept of Personal Computer Equivalents and mobile market multipliers. Copeland acts as a supportive interviewer, offering brief prompts and summarizing key conclusions.3:56–7:25 · Guest teaching 4/10 iPad Sales Trends and Tablet Upgrade Dynamics Michael Copeland asks brief clarifying questions regarding flat iPad sales and user upgrade habits. Benedict Evans explains why consumer upgrade cycles resemble PCs rather than phones, gently clarifying that flat sales do not mean a declining user base.7:25–12:14 · Guest teaching 5/10 Apple-IBM Deal and Transforming Enterprise Workflows Copeland actively challenges Evans by asking why enterprise tablet deployment needs handholding when consumer adoption was self-serve. Evans explains the necessity of enterprise workflow integration using real-world examples like Hertz car rentals and airport baggage tracking.12:14–17:38 · Guest teaching 5/10 PC Equivalents, Mobile Multipliers, and Market Opportunity Evans leads a detailed monologue outlining the concept of Personal Computer Equivalents and mobile market multipliers. Copeland acts as a supportive interviewer, offering brief prompts and summarizing key conclusions.3:56–7:25 · Guest disagreement 1/10 iPad Sales Trends and Tablet Upgrade Dynamics Michael Copeland asks brief clarifying questions regarding flat iPad sales and user upgrade habits. Benedict Evans explains why consumer upgrade cycles resemble PCs rather than phones, gently clarifying that flat sales do not mean a declining user base.7:25–12:14 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Apple-IBM Deal and Transforming Enterprise Workflows Copeland actively challenges Evans by asking why enterprise tablet deployment needs handholding when consumer adoption was self-serve. Evans explains the necessity of enterprise workflow integration using real-world examples like Hertz car rentals and airport baggage tracking.12:14–17:38 · Guest disagreement 1/10 PC Equivalents, Mobile Multipliers, and Market Opportunity Evans leads a detailed monologue outlining the concept of Personal Computer Equivalents and mobile market multipliers. Copeland acts as a supportive interviewer, offering brief prompts and summarizing key conclusions.3:56–7:25 · The host pushing back 2/10 iPad Sales Trends and Tablet Upgrade Dynamics Michael Copeland asks brief clarifying questions regarding flat iPad sales and user upgrade habits. Benedict Evans explains why consumer upgrade cycles resemble PCs rather than phones, gently clarifying that flat sales do not mean a declining user base.7:25–12:14 · The host pushing back 4/10 Apple-IBM Deal and Transforming Enterprise Workflows Copeland actively challenges Evans by asking why enterprise tablet deployment needs handholding when consumer adoption was self-serve. Evans explains the necessity of enterprise workflow integration using real-world examples like Hertz car rentals and airport baggage tracking.12:14–17:38 · The host pushing back 1/10 PC Equivalents, Mobile Multipliers, and Market Opportunity Evans leads a detailed monologue outlining the concept of Personal Computer Equivalents and mobile market multipliers. Copeland acts as a supportive interviewer, offering brief prompts and summarizing key conclusions.

speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%0:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%15:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%15:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 10:27 Evans counters consumer vs enterprise analogy

Evans directly rejects the host's premise that enterprise tablet adoption can happen without handholding, explaining the distinct complexity of corporate workflows.

 Hardest push from the host ▶ 10:12 Copeland challenges the need for enterprise handholding

Copeland interrupts the thesis to poke at the assumption that enterprise sales require handholding when consumer mobile adoption succeeded without it.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 14:00 Explaining Personal Computer Equivalents

Evans educates the host on how to discount locked-down corporate PCs and shared home computers to calculate true personal computer equivalents.

 The host holds their own ▶ 10:12 Copeland's counterargument on consumer mobile dynamics

Copeland demonstrates industry insight by questioning why enterprise tablet adoption wouldn't follow the friction-free consumer model.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicThe host as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementThe host pushing backWhy
iPad Sales Trends and Tablet Upgrade Dynamics 2412 Michael Copeland asks brief clarifying questions regarding flat iPad sales and user upgrade habits. Benedict Evans explains why consumer upgrade cycles resemble PCs rather than phones, gently clarifying that flat sales do not mean a declining user base.
Apple-IBM Deal and Transforming Enterprise Workflows 4524 Copeland actively challenges Evans by asking why enterprise tablet deployment needs handholding when consumer adoption was self-serve. Evans explains the necessity of enterprise workflow integration using real-world examples like Hertz car rentals and airport baggage tracking.
PC Equivalents, Mobile Multipliers, and Market Opportunity 2511 Evans leads a detailed monologue outlining the concept of Personal Computer Equivalents and mobile market multipliers. Copeland acts as a supportive interviewer, offering brief prompts and summarizing key conclusions.

Statements from this episode (10)

Assertion Supported
Evans: iOS users spend four times more than Android users
“You have double the revenue on iOS for half the users, and so very roughly four times the spend.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:41
Prediction Partly held up
Evans: Android's next billion users will not raise average app spending
“It's going to go from one billion users to two or three billion users in the next couple of years, but those are not going to be people who are going to raise the average.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 2:53
Assertion Supported
Evans: Average price of an Android phone is about $250
“The average price of an Android phone is about 250 dollars.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:43
Assertion Supported
Evans: iPad sales hit flatline while iPhone continues strong growth
“And the iPhone is growing quite strongly, and the iPad has been effectively flat for a year.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:18
Insight
Evans: Tablets are household devices with 3-5 year upgrade cycles
“And it feels like where we're settling is it's a one per household or two per household device that gets bought every three or four or five years.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:31
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Active iPad installed base exceeds active Mac base by 2x
“There's probably a 180 to two hundred million iPads in use now, Versus about eighty million Macs, according to Apple.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:54
Prediction Held up
Evans predicts active iOS and Android devices will reach four billion globally
“And we'll go to four billion iOS and Android.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 12:28
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans predicts global PC base will plateau then gently decline over time
“Yeah, so the PC number will stay more or less where it is for a while. It will gently drift downwards over time.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 12:39
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Evans estimates actual personal computer equivalents at only 700M to 900M
“We've got maybe eight hundred million or seven hundred million or nine hundred million actual personal computer equivalents when you factor in, okay, divide the sharing and the locking down, and they can't use.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 14:13
Insight
Evans argues mobile creates 5x to 10x greater market opportunity than PCs
“When you combine all of those together, it's not that there's two or three times more devices. It's that you've got five or 10 X more opportunity.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 16:11
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