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Jan 2, 2019 · 14m · a16z

a16z Podcast | The Wearables Session

Chris Dixon · 6m spoken Christina Mercando · 5m spoken
0:00 / 0:00
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions

Chris Dixon and Ringly CEO Christina Mercando discuss the evolution of wearable technology, contrasting specialized smart jewelry and ambient IoT spaces against traditional platform-driven smartwatches. They examine key hardware design constraints, spatial connectivity pillars, enterprise adoption drivers, and direct-to-consumer startup economics.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →

The host as informed peer 6.3 Guest teaching 3.0 Guest disagreement 1.3 The host pushing back 2.8
05100:0010:002:08–4:49 · The host as informed peer 5/10 ID Wearables and Smart Ambient Spaces Chris challenges the premise of ambient spaces, asking if changing lighting automatically is just a gimmick looking for an application. Christina reframes the problem around filtering notification overload rather than adding unnecessary features.4:49–8:28 · The host as informed peer 7/10 Historical Parallels and Ecosystem Network Effects Chris demonstrates strong historical domain expertise, contrasting 1990s touch computing failures like the Apple Newton with the eventual success of the iPhone. He articulates how network effects and developer adoption drive hardware platforms.8:28–12:33 · The host as informed peer 7/10 The Four Pillars of Wearables and Physical Space Christina introduces a four-pillar framework for wearable connections, which Chris expands on by explaining corporate self-insurance economics. Chris posits a counter-intuitive thesis that enterprise adoption will lead consumer adoption in wearables.12:33–14:05 · The host as informed peer 6/10 Hardware Manufacturing, Crowdfunding, and Distribution Models Chris breaks down traditional retail economics, explaining how cutting out 50 percent retail margins allows direct-to-consumer hardware companies to double their manufacturing budget. Christina adds context on high prototype board manufacturing costs.2:08–4:49 · Guest teaching 3/10 ID Wearables and Smart Ambient Spaces Chris challenges the premise of ambient spaces, asking if changing lighting automatically is just a gimmick looking for an application. Christina reframes the problem around filtering notification overload rather than adding unnecessary features.4:49–8:28 · Guest teaching 2/10 Historical Parallels and Ecosystem Network Effects Chris demonstrates strong historical domain expertise, contrasting 1990s touch computing failures like the Apple Newton with the eventual success of the iPhone. He articulates how network effects and developer adoption drive hardware platforms.8:28–12:33 · Guest teaching 4/10 The Four Pillars of Wearables and Physical Space Christina introduces a four-pillar framework for wearable connections, which Chris expands on by explaining corporate self-insurance economics. Chris posits a counter-intuitive thesis that enterprise adoption will lead consumer adoption in wearables.12:33–14:05 · Guest teaching 3/10 Hardware Manufacturing, Crowdfunding, and Distribution Models Chris breaks down traditional retail economics, explaining how cutting out 50 percent retail margins allows direct-to-consumer hardware companies to double their manufacturing budget. Christina adds context on high prototype board manufacturing costs.2:08–4:49 · Guest disagreement 2/10 ID Wearables and Smart Ambient Spaces Chris challenges the premise of ambient spaces, asking if changing lighting automatically is just a gimmick looking for an application. Christina reframes the problem around filtering notification overload rather than adding unnecessary features.4:49–8:28 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Historical Parallels and Ecosystem Network Effects Chris demonstrates strong historical domain expertise, contrasting 1990s touch computing failures like the Apple Newton with the eventual success of the iPhone. He articulates how network effects and developer adoption drive hardware platforms.8:28–12:33 · Guest disagreement 1/10 The Four Pillars of Wearables and Physical Space Christina introduces a four-pillar framework for wearable connections, which Chris expands on by explaining corporate self-insurance economics. Chris posits a counter-intuitive thesis that enterprise adoption will lead consumer adoption in wearables.12:33–14:05 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Hardware Manufacturing, Crowdfunding, and Distribution Models Chris breaks down traditional retail economics, explaining how cutting out 50 percent retail margins allows direct-to-consumer hardware companies to double their manufacturing budget. Christina adds context on high prototype board manufacturing costs.2:08–4:49 · The host pushing back 5/10 ID Wearables and Smart Ambient Spaces Chris challenges the premise of ambient spaces, asking if changing lighting automatically is just a gimmick looking for an application. Christina reframes the problem around filtering notification overload rather than adding unnecessary features.4:49–8:28 · The host pushing back 2/10 Historical Parallels and Ecosystem Network Effects Chris demonstrates strong historical domain expertise, contrasting 1990s touch computing failures like the Apple Newton with the eventual success of the iPhone. He articulates how network effects and developer adoption drive hardware platforms.8:28–12:33 · The host pushing back 3/10 The Four Pillars of Wearables and Physical Space Christina introduces a four-pillar framework for wearable connections, which Chris expands on by explaining corporate self-insurance economics. Chris posits a counter-intuitive thesis that enterprise adoption will lead consumer adoption in wearables.12:33–14:05 · The host pushing back 1/10 Hardware Manufacturing, Crowdfunding, and Distribution Models Chris breaks down traditional retail economics, explaining how cutting out 50 percent retail margins allows direct-to-consumer hardware companies to double their manufacturing budget. Christina adds context on high prototype board manufacturing costs.

speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%0:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 4:11 Christina criticizes Apple notification management

Christina directly dismisses Apple's current software capabilities, stating outright that Apple does not do a great job managing notification overload.

 Hardest push from the host ▶ 3:04 Host questions if ambient features are gimmicky

Chris directly challenges the guest's optimistic framing, asking if smart room ambient lighting is just a technology looking for an application.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 8:28 Christina outlines the four pillars of wearables

Christina systematically educates the host by laying out a comprehensive theoretical taxonomy dividing wearables across device, self, interpersonal, and spatial pillars.

 The host holds their own ▶ 10:59 Host details corporate self-insurance economics

Chris demonstrates superior market knowledge by detailing how large self-insured corporations have direct financial incentives to subsidize employee fitness trackers.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicThe host as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementThe host pushing backWhy
ID Wearables and Smart Ambient Spaces 5325 Chris challenges the premise of ambient spaces, asking if changing lighting automatically is just a gimmick looking for an application. Christina reframes the problem around filtering notification overload rather than adding unnecessary features.
Historical Parallels and Ecosystem Network Effects 7212 Chris demonstrates strong historical domain expertise, contrasting 1990s touch computing failures like the Apple Newton with the eventual success of the iPhone. He articulates how network effects and developer adoption drive hardware platforms.
The Four Pillars of Wearables and Physical Space 7413 Christina introduces a four-pillar framework for wearable connections, which Chris expands on by explaining corporate self-insurance economics. Chris posits a counter-intuitive thesis that enterprise adoption will lead consumer adoption in wearables.
Hardware Manufacturing, Crowdfunding, and Distribution Models 6311 Chris breaks down traditional retail economics, explaining how cutting out 50 percent retail margins allows direct-to-consumer hardware companies to double their manufacturing budget. Christina adds context on high prototype board manufacturing costs.

Statements from this episode (11)

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mercando: No single wearable device will be one-size-fits-all
“The good news is I don't think there will be a one size fits all because again, you're talking about fashion and even with watches, maybe you wear one, maybe somebody has one watch that they wear all the time, but they like to change it up.”
Christina Mercando Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:17
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mercando: Consumers will buy wearables on seasonal fashion cycles like clothing
“I think so, yeah. And I think that they'll be buying devices, again, in the same sort of life cycle that they buy clothing. So when the new device comes out that season, they'll want to run and buy it. They'll want to buy the winter version, they'll want to bu…”
Christina Mercando Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:36
Opinion
Mercando: Apple fails to manage mobile notifications effectively
“I don't think that Apple does a great job with managing them, and so we're building a platform where you can manage all those notifications, and you deem what's most important to you.”
Christina Mercando Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:17
Opinion
Dixon: Samsung's smartwatch strategy merely shrinks phones without solving use cases
“Yeah, it's interesting, because I think, like, a lot of the views, like, if you look at the Samsung Watch, it's basically that their idea is just, let's just take the phone, and shrink it, and remove some features, and put it on your wrist, right?”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:27
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mercando: Screen-based wearables require large physical designs due to battery limits
“Even if Apple comes out with something, you know, battery technology is such that If you want to power a screen and if you want to do all these things, you need a device that's large.”
Christina Mercando Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:56
Prediction Held up
Mercando: Beacons will enable physical stores to collect e-commerce style data
“One of the things that I'm interested in in beacons is when you walk into a physical space, you can now get more data on people and more information. So if you think about e-commerce You know, there, there's so much data that we were collecting, you know, when…”
Christina Mercando Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:30
Assertion Supported
Dixon: Smart temperature control saves ~20% on office energy use
“It turns out you can save, it's like some astounding number, like 20% of energy use using that.”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 10:28
Assertion Partly supported
Dixon: Companies with 500+ employees almost always self-insure healthcare
“Large company that has, I think it's over 500 employees, it those companies always actually self-insure, meaning they pay for their own, like you may see a blue cross thing on your card, but actually eBay is paying the bill.”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 11:04
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Dixon: Enterprise applications will lead consumer adoption in wearable tech
“I think there's a reasonable chance that you'll see the corporate use cases leading Like, unlike what we've seen over the last 15 years in technology, which is the consumer has led the enterprise. You know, the stuff you have at home on your iPhone and Gmail i…”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 11:43
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mercando: Ringly spent $8,000 per circuit board prototype
“So, manufacturing these things, every time we get a board built, it'll be 8000 dollars.”
Christina Mercando Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 13:17
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dixon: Traditional retail channels take a 50 percent cut
“Retail takes 50%.”
Chris Dixon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 13:32
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