Jan 2, 2019 · 22m · a16z

a16z Podcast | Searching for Mobile's Third OS

Kurt McMaster · 12m spoken Michael Copeland · 2m spoken
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In this episode of the a16z Podcast, Cyanogen CEO Kurt McMaster and Andreessen Horowitz's Anzal discuss the necessity and strategy for establishing a third mobile operating system. They explain how an open OS platform can challenge the Apple-Google duopoly by enabling deep developer integration and capturing localized emerging markets.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →

The host as informed peer 4.5 Guest teaching 4.3 Guest disagreement 3.3 The host pushing back 3.7
05100:0010:0020:000:49–4:41 · The host as informed peer 5/10 The Limits of Existing Platforms and Vision for an Open OS Michael challenges the need for a third OS by bringing up Apple's record quarter selling 75 million iPhones and high consumer satisfaction. Anzal adds market context regarding hardware versus software strengths in Xiaomi, Apple, Nokia, and Blackberry. Kurt argues forcefully that existing platforms act as closed shells that restrict true service innovation.4:41–9:40 · The host as informed peer 5/10 Empowering Developers via Deep OS Integration Kurt explains how startup developers in AI and machine learning are trapped at the application layer without OS-level access. Anzal displays technical domain knowledge by detailing how iOS settings-level integration works for Twitter OAuth versus deeper root access. The host team asks facilitating questions while Kurt elaborates on open system access.9:40–12:04 · The host as informed peer 4/10 Cyanogen's Strategy and Regional App Ecosystems Anzal highlights regional app ecosystems in China, India, and Russia where Google services do not dominate. Kurt describes Cyanogen's roots in open-source community modification and its goal to give developers a full canvas. The exchange is highly collaborative and aligned.12:04–15:06 · The host as informed peer 4/10 Disruption in Emerging Markets and Hardware Commoditization Kurt rejects the premise that emerging markets receive dumbed-down products, insisting they lead mobile innovation due to single-device reliance. He schools the host panel on Micromax overtaking Samsung in India with $140 octa-core LTE phones and references Christensen's disruption theory. Anzal supports the discussion by providing global smartphone shipment data.15:06–18:01 · The host as informed peer 3/10 Software Differentiation and Localized Geo-Optimization Michael presses Kurt for evidence on why now is the right time for a third OS given past failures by Microsoft and Nokia. Kurt bluntly asserts that Apple products only look great because competitors are so bad, predicting margin collapse within 5 to 10 years. Kurt also details local geo-stack optimization using examples like BBM in Indonesia.18:01–22:06 · The host as informed peer 6/10 Why Past Competitors Failed and the Future of Invisible Computing Anzal delivers explicit pushback by introducing a counterpoint comparing pre-integrated regional OS services to laptop PC desktop bloatware from 10 years prior. Kurt addresses the critique directly, reframing the model as invisible computing where core services fade into background defaults based on space-time context.0:49–4:41 · Guest teaching 3/10 The Limits of Existing Platforms and Vision for an Open OS Michael challenges the need for a third OS by bringing up Apple's record quarter selling 75 million iPhones and high consumer satisfaction. Anzal adds market context regarding hardware versus software strengths in Xiaomi, Apple, Nokia, and Blackberry. Kurt argues forcefully that existing platforms act as closed shells that restrict true service innovation.4:41–9:40 · Guest teaching 4/10 Empowering Developers via Deep OS Integration Kurt explains how startup developers in AI and machine learning are trapped at the application layer without OS-level access. Anzal displays technical domain knowledge by detailing how iOS settings-level integration works for Twitter OAuth versus deeper root access. The host team asks facilitating questions while Kurt elaborates on open system access.9:40–12:04 · Guest teaching 3/10 Cyanogen's Strategy and Regional App Ecosystems Anzal highlights regional app ecosystems in China, India, and Russia where Google services do not dominate. Kurt describes Cyanogen's roots in open-source community modification and its goal to give developers a full canvas. The exchange is highly collaborative and aligned.12:04–15:06 · Guest teaching 6/10 Disruption in Emerging Markets and Hardware Commoditization Kurt rejects the premise that emerging markets receive dumbed-down products, insisting they lead mobile innovation due to single-device reliance. He schools the host panel on Micromax overtaking Samsung in India with $140 octa-core LTE phones and references Christensen's disruption theory. Anzal supports the discussion by providing global smartphone shipment data.15:06–18:01 · Guest teaching 5/10 Software Differentiation and Localized Geo-Optimization Michael presses Kurt for evidence on why now is the right time for a third OS given past failures by Microsoft and Nokia. Kurt bluntly asserts that Apple products only look great because competitors are so bad, predicting margin collapse within 5 to 10 years. Kurt also details local geo-stack optimization using examples like BBM in Indonesia.18:01–22:06 · Guest teaching 5/10 Why Past Competitors Failed and the Future of Invisible Computing Anzal delivers explicit pushback by introducing a counterpoint comparing pre-integrated regional OS services to laptop PC desktop bloatware from 10 years prior. Kurt addresses the critique directly, reframing the model as invisible computing where core services fade into background defaults based on space-time context.0:49–4:41 · Guest disagreement 3/10 The Limits of Existing Platforms and Vision for an Open OS Michael challenges the need for a third OS by bringing up Apple's record quarter selling 75 million iPhones and high consumer satisfaction. Anzal adds market context regarding hardware versus software strengths in Xiaomi, Apple, Nokia, and Blackberry. Kurt argues forcefully that existing platforms act as closed shells that restrict true service innovation.4:41–9:40 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Empowering Developers via Deep OS Integration Kurt explains how startup developers in AI and machine learning are trapped at the application layer without OS-level access. Anzal displays technical domain knowledge by detailing how iOS settings-level integration works for Twitter OAuth versus deeper root access. The host team asks facilitating questions while Kurt elaborates on open system access.9:40–12:04 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Cyanogen's Strategy and Regional App Ecosystems Anzal highlights regional app ecosystems in China, India, and Russia where Google services do not dominate. Kurt describes Cyanogen's roots in open-source community modification and its goal to give developers a full canvas. The exchange is highly collaborative and aligned.12:04–15:06 · Guest disagreement 5/10 Disruption in Emerging Markets and Hardware Commoditization Kurt rejects the premise that emerging markets receive dumbed-down products, insisting they lead mobile innovation due to single-device reliance. He schools the host panel on Micromax overtaking Samsung in India with $140 octa-core LTE phones and references Christensen's disruption theory. Anzal supports the discussion by providing global smartphone shipment data.15:06–18:01 · Guest disagreement 5/10 Software Differentiation and Localized Geo-Optimization Michael presses Kurt for evidence on why now is the right time for a third OS given past failures by Microsoft and Nokia. Kurt bluntly asserts that Apple products only look great because competitors are so bad, predicting margin collapse within 5 to 10 years. Kurt also details local geo-stack optimization using examples like BBM in Indonesia.18:01–22:06 · Guest disagreement 4/10 Why Past Competitors Failed and the Future of Invisible Computing Anzal delivers explicit pushback by introducing a counterpoint comparing pre-integrated regional OS services to laptop PC desktop bloatware from 10 years prior. Kurt addresses the critique directly, reframing the model as invisible computing where core services fade into background defaults based on space-time context.0:49–4:41 · The host pushing back 4/10 The Limits of Existing Platforms and Vision for an Open OS Michael challenges the need for a third OS by bringing up Apple's record quarter selling 75 million iPhones and high consumer satisfaction. Anzal adds market context regarding hardware versus software strengths in Xiaomi, Apple, Nokia, and Blackberry. Kurt argues forcefully that existing platforms act as closed shells that restrict true service innovation.4:41–9:40 · The host pushing back 2/10 Empowering Developers via Deep OS Integration Kurt explains how startup developers in AI and machine learning are trapped at the application layer without OS-level access. Anzal displays technical domain knowledge by detailing how iOS settings-level integration works for Twitter OAuth versus deeper root access. The host team asks facilitating questions while Kurt elaborates on open system access.9:40–12:04 · The host pushing back 2/10 Cyanogen's Strategy and Regional App Ecosystems Anzal highlights regional app ecosystems in China, India, and Russia where Google services do not dominate. Kurt describes Cyanogen's roots in open-source community modification and its goal to give developers a full canvas. The exchange is highly collaborative and aligned.12:04–15:06 · The host pushing back 2/10 Disruption in Emerging Markets and Hardware Commoditization Kurt rejects the premise that emerging markets receive dumbed-down products, insisting they lead mobile innovation due to single-device reliance. He schools the host panel on Micromax overtaking Samsung in India with $140 octa-core LTE phones and references Christensen's disruption theory. Anzal supports the discussion by providing global smartphone shipment data.15:06–18:01 · The host pushing back 5/10 Software Differentiation and Localized Geo-Optimization Michael presses Kurt for evidence on why now is the right time for a third OS given past failures by Microsoft and Nokia. Kurt bluntly asserts that Apple products only look great because competitors are so bad, predicting margin collapse within 5 to 10 years. Kurt also details local geo-stack optimization using examples like BBM in Indonesia.18:01–22:06 · The host pushing back 7/10 Why Past Competitors Failed and the Future of Invisible Computing Anzal delivers explicit pushback by introducing a counterpoint comparing pre-integrated regional OS services to laptop PC desktop bloatware from 10 years prior. Kurt addresses the critique directly, reframing the model as invisible computing where core services fade into background defaults based on space-time context.

speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%0:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%15:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%15:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%18:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%18:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%21:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%21:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 15:30 Dismissing Apple's superiority

Kurt forcefully rejects standard market praise for Apple, asserting their hardware is not superior and that they only win because everyone else is so bad.

Hardest push from the host ▶ 19:29 The PC bloatware analogy pushback

Anzal directly challenges Kurt's vision of deep regional BD integrations by comparing it to the frustrating pre-installed crapware on Windows laptops a decade earlier.

Biggest teaching moment ▶ 14:01 Micromax price-performance lesson

Kurt educates the host on the rapid commoditization of hardware, citing Micromax's $140 octa-core LTE device that delivers iPhone-level performance at a fraction of the cost.

The host holds their own ▶ 1:32 Citing Apple's 75M sales record

Michael grounds the theoretical discussion in real market performance, citing Apple's 75 million quarterly phone sales to query what consumers are actually missing.

the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicThe host as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementThe host pushing backWhy
The Limits of Existing Platforms and Vision for an Open OS 5334 Michael challenges the need for a third OS by bringing up Apple's record quarter selling 75 million iPhones and high consumer satisfaction. Anzal adds market context regarding hardware versus software strengths in Xiaomi, Apple, Nokia, and Blackberry. Kurt argues forcefully that existing platforms act as closed shells that restrict true service innovation.
Empowering Developers via Deep OS Integration 5422 Kurt explains how startup developers in AI and machine learning are trapped at the application layer without OS-level access. Anzal displays technical domain knowledge by detailing how iOS settings-level integration works for Twitter OAuth versus deeper root access. The host team asks facilitating questions while Kurt elaborates on open system access.
Cyanogen's Strategy and Regional App Ecosystems 4312 Anzal highlights regional app ecosystems in China, India, and Russia where Google services do not dominate. Kurt describes Cyanogen's roots in open-source community modification and its goal to give developers a full canvas. The exchange is highly collaborative and aligned.
Disruption in Emerging Markets and Hardware Commoditization 4652 Kurt rejects the premise that emerging markets receive dumbed-down products, insisting they lead mobile innovation due to single-device reliance. He schools the host panel on Micromax overtaking Samsung in India with $140 octa-core LTE phones and references Christensen's disruption theory. Anzal supports the discussion by providing global smartphone shipment data.
Software Differentiation and Localized Geo-Optimization 3555 Michael presses Kurt for evidence on why now is the right time for a third OS given past failures by Microsoft and Nokia. Kurt bluntly asserts that Apple products only look great because competitors are so bad, predicting margin collapse within 5 to 10 years. Kurt also details local geo-stack optimization using examples like BBM in Indonesia.
Why Past Competitors Failed and the Future of Invisible Computing 6547 Anzal delivers explicit pushback by introducing a counterpoint comparing pre-integrated regional OS services to laptop PC desktop bloatware from 10 years prior. Kurt addresses the critique directly, reframing the model as invisible computing where core services fade into background defaults based on space-time context.

Statements from this episode (8)

Prediction Not checkable as stated
McMaster: Expanding mobile market will enable a third or fourth OS
“And we think that as mobile computing goes from a couple billion users to well over six billion users, There's an opportunity on the global platform for definitely a third, maybe even a fourth.”
Kurt McMaster Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:20
Assertion Contradicted
McMaster: Google's Android Wear contains no open-source components whatsoever
“If you look at Android Wear today, that is incredibly close. There is no open source component to Android Wear whatsoever, right?”
Kurt McMaster Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:15
Insight
McMaster: AI startups cannot succeed as standalone sandboxed mobile apps
“These kinds of services can't really exist as applications. A, they don't get any traction. Anything that requires machine learning and AI requires massive user bases to start to build out their data sets so that they get all the more powerful, et cetera. So w…”
Kurt McMaster Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:05
Assertion Supported
McMaster: Micromax surpassed Samsung as India's top smartphone manufacturer
“Last August, they surpassed Samsung as volume shipment sales in India. Last week, they passed Samsung as the number one smartphone manufacturer in India, right? They're now a top 10 global OEM, right?”
Kurt McMaster Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 13:45
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McMaster: Low-cost emerging market manufacturers will decimate tier-one OEMs like Samsung
“Emerging markets are going to lead to the decimation of tier one OEMs, because the Samsungs, et cetera, will not be able to compete at that level.”
Kurt McMaster Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 14:43
Prediction Didn’t hold up
McMaster: Apple faces margin pressure and negligible emerging market share
“I believe over time, Apple's even going to have products. You know, problems, because they're not going to be able to sustain these margins, and in these markets where Android is dominant, Apple's market share will be negligible. Right? As these markets contin…”
Kurt McMaster Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 15:43
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McMaster: $50 to $75 smartphones will rival iPhones within a year
“But next year, there's gonna be 50 dollar and 75 dollar phones that are just as good, almost as good as an iPhone.”
Kurt McMaster Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 16:31
Assertion Supported
McMaster: Under 200 apps account for 80% of global mobile data
“If you look at the app world, I would say probably less than 200 applications account for 75 to 80% of all global mobile data usage.”
Kurt McMaster Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 20:18
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