Jan 2, 2019 · 48m · a16z
a16z Podcast | Tech's Biggest Ideas and How They Take Hold -- With Marc Andreessen and Dan Siroker
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In this episode of the a16z Podcast, venture capitalist Marc Andreessen and Optimizely CEO Dan Siroker explore how emerging technological innovations—from artificial intelligence and Bitcoin to virtual reality and data analytics—evolve into pervasive global platforms that transform economies, industries, and societal norms.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →
The host as informed peer 3.7 Guest teaching 4.5 Guest disagreement 1.1 The host pushing back 0.7
speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 46:48 Dissenting on Universal 1-1-1 Philanthropy
Marc explicitly pushes back against venture capital consensus and Marc Benioff's push for every startup to adopt the 1-1-1 philanthropy framework, arguing against one-size-fits-all corporate rules.
Hardest push from the host ▶ 34:02 Challenging Virtual Reality SkepticismDan directly challenges Marc's optimism about virtual reality by questioning why anyone should care about virtual reality when actual reality exists.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 19:54 Macroeconomic Reframing of DisruptionMarc reframes Dan's premise about disruption causing job loss by explaining how price reductions unlock capital to create net new economic employment.
The host holds their own ▶ 24:28 Citing Carlota Perez's FrameworkDan demonstrates domain expertise by accurately introducing Carlota Perez's niche economic framework on technological revolutions, drawing high praise from Marc.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The host as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The host pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Why Andreessen Horowitz Invested in Optimizely | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | Dan opens the conversation by asking Marc why Andreessen Horowitz chose to invest in Optimizely. Marc responds with high praise for Dan's team and compares optimization technology to fundamental internet platforms like Google and eBay. | |
| The Evolving Concept of Privacy and the Utility Trade-Off | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 | Dan brings up Optimizely's product launch and asks how businesses can balance personalization with privacy, later asking if privacy is dead. Marc explains the trade-off between privacy and utility while mildly disagreeing with Scott McNealy's extreme declaration that privacy is dead. | |
| Artificial Intelligence, Human Augmentation, and Automation Fears | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Dan sets up a question around AI replacing human roles versus serving human creativity. Marc provides an extended tutorial on technological panic, comparing current AI fears to early automobile red flag laws and highlighting medical diagnosis tools. | |
| Demystifying Bitcoin and Global Financial Inclusion | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | Dan draws a parallel between current Bitcoin skepticism and early Netscape-era internet doubts. Marc expands on this, educating the audience on how developing nations benefit from trustless financial platforms far more than Westerners with stable banking. | |
| Rethinking Tech Disruption, Job Creation, and Economic Growth | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | Dan asks which jobs will disappear due to industry disruption like autonomous vehicles. Marc reframes the premise, arguing disruption is poorly named creation that lowers prices and frees capital to generate net more jobs overall. | |
| Carlota Perez's Framework for Technological Revolutions | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | Dan demonstrates notable domain knowledge by citing Carlota Perez's economic framework on technological revolutions and financial capital. Marc expresses delight at the reference and details Perez's 25-year tech cycle model. | |
| Evaluating Unicorn Valuations and Modern Tech Funding | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | Dan asks Marc to break down A16Z's recent report on tech funding and unicorn valuations. Marc presents valuation data, showing that all private tech unicorns combined equal roughly one Facebook or half of Microsoft. | |
| The Experiential Power and Future of Virtual Reality | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | Dan challenges Marc with a skeptical premise, asking why anyone should care about virtual reality over actual reality. Marc pushes back forcefully, arguing that preferring real life reflects geographical and socioeconomic privilege that VR can democratize. | |
| Practical Business Advice and Experimentation | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | Dan steers the conversation toward actionable advice for traditional businesses looking to leverage new technologies. Marc advises maintaining open-mindedness and running small, iterative experiments. | |
| Data-Driven Strategy and Social Networks in Political Campaigns | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | Dan highlights Optimizely's background optimizing political campaigns for Obama and Romney. Marc engages warmly with jokes before analyzing how emerging social networks drive modern election strategies globally. | |
| Evolving Models of Tech Philanthropy and Corporate Giving | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | Dan highlights Optimizely's adoption of the 1-1-1 corporate philanthropy pledge. Marc explicitly dissents from the idea that all companies should adopt this specific model, taking a contrarian stance in favor of corporate autonomy. |
Statements from this episode (23)
Andreessen argues continuous optimization across human experiences improves the world
“At first it's like, okay, you can make, you know, these websites a little better, mobile apps a little better, and do this, and conversion rates, and so forth, and then you realize, wait a minute, like, you can make everything a little bit better, right? Basic…”
Andreessen: Optimizely may have the highest leverage of any a16z investment
“And so I think this is a company that may have, you know, kind of the most leverage, maybe, of all the companies we've invested in, which is, it's sort of an opportunity to make the whole world better.”
Andreessen: Consumers gain enormous utility trading personal data for digital services
“The utility from making the trade and basically contributing personal information the utility you get as a user is just absolutely enormous, absolutely tremendous.”
Andreessen: Younger generations prioritize digital connectivity over personal privacy
“I think there's a generational thing that's starting to play out where I think new generations of people have new expectations of the benefits of being connected as opposed to the benefits of being private.”
Andreessen: Privacy is not dead; consumers simply require granular sharing control
“I don't really believe that, and I think you also see this when you spend time with young people, which is I think we just need, we need to give people control. I think we need to give people control over what they share and what they don't.”
Andreessen: Expert software systems consistently outperform human doctors in medical diagnoses
“I can tell you, and in all the studies that have been done in the last, like, 20 years, the expert systems make better diagnoses than human doctors.”
Andreessen: Technology will continue augmenting human capabilities rather than replacing them
“I'm an extreme optimist on this. I think we just make better and better tools all the time. And the tools help us as humans magnify our abilities. They don't take away from what we can do. They help us do more than we could possibly do before. And I think that…”
Andreessen: Bitcoin technology will be a big deal globally
“Digital assets can basically, Bitcoin is basically a platform to be able to exchange those in a trusted way online. And, you know, this is an extremely powerful idea. Like, this idea is very powerful. The technology is very powerful. And this will be a big dea…”
Andreessen: Developing world financial inclusion will drive global Bitcoin adoption
“And so there's a very, very big opportunity to use these new technologies, and those include Bitcoin, and those include smartphones, to really up level the capabilities that people have in, in many countries. And I think that's a big part of how Bitcoin will p…”
Marc Andreessen calls The Innovator's Dilemma one of the best business books ever written
“If you read his book, it's called The Innovator's Dilemma where he describes this, which is, remains one of the best business books ever written.”
Andreessen: Tech disruption creates more jobs than it destroys via consumer savings
“From an economy standpoint, more jobs get created by the unleashing of the saved money than get destroyed by the effects on the legacy industries.”
Andreessen: Carlota Perez's book is his most frequently recommended text
“The book that Dan's referring to is probably my favorite book that I recommend most often and it's got a kind of a, not a lot of people have read it, because it's got one of those titles that kind of scares people off. It's called Technological Revolutions in …”
Andreessen: Major technological shifts require a 25-year generational transition to adopt
“Big technology shifts are generational shifts and generational, which is to say, like, literally, like, over 25 years, and literally from one generation of people to the next generation of people.”
Andreessen: Current tech market reflects real usage, not a bubble
“Claims that we're in a bubble today make total sense. People are traumatized by the fact that the last time it looked like this stuff was going to work, it all didn't work and it crashed. And so we're all psychically scarred. But now this stuff is actually wor…”
Andreessen: Adjusted for delayed IPOs, capital flowing into tech is flat
“In our deck we basically show if you adjust for the IPOs that aren't happening and the companies are staying private, it's basically, it's almost a flat amount of money actually flowing into tech.”
Andreessen: All 59 US private tech unicorns combined equal one Facebook
“There's like 59 U.S. Tech companies that are private and are worth more than a billion dollars. If you add them all up, they're worth about one Facebook.”
Andreessen: Startup failures are an inherent feature of venture capital, not systemic failure
“Private tech companies failing is not a sign of venture capital not working, it's just a sign of venture capital.”
Andreessen predicts VR will project realistic courtside experiences for sports events
“They will be able to project the basketball game into VR in a way where it's gonna be like you're sitting right there at the side, on the side of the court.”
Andreessen: Evaluate emerging tech by its potential importance, not its feasibility
“What we always like to say is the question is not whether it will work. The question is if it does work, how important will it be?”
Siroker: Both Obama and Romney campaigns used Optimizely in 2012
“We're lucky to have both Obama and Romney use our platform in 2012.”
Andreessen: Crowdfunding platforms stemmed from Obama 2008 campaign fundraising innovations
“A lot of what is now happening with crowdfunding and Kickstarter and CrowdTilt and all these things is kind of, in a lot of ways, sort of derivations of what happened in the Obama campaign.”
Andreessen: A near-future US presidential election will pivot entirely on social networks
“I think there is going to be an election in which the entire thing is going to pivot on social networks, and it's going to turn out that the candidate that most effectively used Facebook and Pinterest and Twitter and all these things is, is, is the one who win…”
Andreessen: Medical research funding disproportionately favors diseases affecting wealthy older donors
“Like, in medical research, it turns out that the diseases that affect old people there's much more funding for the cure than diseases that affect young people, because the medical research funding comes from old people who have made a lot of money who have tho…”