Jan 2, 2019 · 33m · a16z
a16z Podcast | So Where Are We on the 'S-curve' for PC Devices?
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of the a16z Podcast, Benedict Evans and Steven Sinofsky analyze major hardware announcements from Google, Apple, and Microsoft to explore technological S-curves, platform architectural transitions from x86 to ARM, and evolving user interface paradigms.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The host holds 2.7% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The host as informed peer 0.0 Guest teaching 2.2 Guest disagreement 1.3 The host pushing back 0.0
speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 13:50 Challenging Microsoft's Mobile Failure
Evans directly asserts that Microsoft failed and missed mobile, forcing Sinofsky to lightheartedly defend Microsoft's efforts.
Hardest push from the host ▶ 27:30 Refusing Surface Studio Mass-Market FramingEvans rejects Microsoft's presentation that pen input improves general email or document tasks, insisting it only serves a narrow creative market.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 11:52 S-Curve Jet vs Piston Engine AnalogyEvans uses the transition from piston engines to jets to educate on how ARM mobile architecture is surpassing flattened PC innovation curves.
The host holds their own ▶ 24:10 Sinofsky Explains Legacy Codebase ConstraintsSinofsky leverages his deep Windows engineering background to explain why legacy desktop developers cannot easily rewrite complex apps for new input paradigms.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The host as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The host pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recent Hardware Announcements & Ecosystem Shifts | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | This segment is a peer conversation between tech analysts Steven Sinofsky and Benedict Evans without active host participation, keeping host expertise and pushback at 0. The guests collaboratively analyze hardware announcements from Apple, Google, and Microsoft, discussing ecosystem fragmentation and OEM dynamics. | |
| Hardware Pricing, Margins, and Executive Reach | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | Sinofsky explains profit margin differences between software and hardware companies using the Dodge Viper analogy. The discussion remains conversational and highly agreeable between the two speakers without host involvement. | |
| Understanding the S-Curve: Intel/x86 vs ARM/Mobile | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | Evans breaks down technological S-curves using a piston engine vs jet transition analogy to frame PC versus mobile ARM development. Evans playfully calls out Microsoft for missing the mobile revolution, which Sinofsky humorously defends. | |
| Platform Transitions and Lessons from Windows & iOS | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | Sinofsky provides insider expertise on leading Windows through platform transitions, detailing the architectural challenges of moving from x86 to ARM and mouse to touch. The dynamic is reflective and collaborative. | |
| Apple Touch Bar and Incremental Innovation | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | Evans shares first-hand impressions from Apple's Touch Bar demo event, while Sinofsky frames the feature as incremental innovation on a mature platform curve. Both speakers agree on developer constraints regarding Touch Bar UI implementation. | |
| Surface Studio, Pen Inputs, and Targeted User Bases | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | Evans questions Microsoft's value proposition for the Surface Studio pen and dial inputs for general users, noting they primarily benefit professional illustrators. Sinofsky concurs and elaborates on how modern work is shifting toward mobile workflows. |
Statements from this episode (17)
Sinofsky: Apple created the standard template for sleek product walkthrough ads
“Apple sort of created the metaphor for doing the sleek ID walkthroughs”
Evans: Apple's 2016 MacBook Pro update is largely an incremental speed bump
“Apple announced a upgrade to their laptops that people have been waiting for, and it's an upgrade. It's another speed bump with a new design with this interesting touch bar thing on it.”
Evans: Nokia Windows phones felt more premium than any Android device
“I actually always felt that the Nokia Windows phones felt more premium than any premium Android phone”
Sinofsky: Late 2016 Apple and Microsoft PCs used year-old chips
“Well, in fact, all of the new devices that were announced this week are running components at least a year old, and in some cases, two years old. The graphics on, on the surface are the last generation of video, the CPUs on Intel, or the, I mean, on, on the Ma…”
Evans: Apple's 900M active iOS devices rival 1.5B global PCs
“There's only one and a half billion PCs on Earth, and Apple has nine hundred million iOS devices out there.”
Sinofsky: Apple's quarterly device sales match the entire global PC market
“And on a quarterly basis, Apple sells about the same number of, Apple sells the same number of devices as their RPCs sold.”
Sinofsky: Successful companies cannot publicly abandon their core legacy businesses
“It's very difficult if you're a big successful organization to stand up and tell the outside world the thing you love, And the thing that's all the business is not the thing we're going to worry about anymore. And you can't do that. Like that's the, that is th…”
Sinofsky: PCs will become super expensive and niche like mainframes
“PCs are going to get super expensive now. Like, and everything about them is, it's just like buying a mainframe. Like, today, you can, if you're a big insurance company running mainframe software, you can hire programmers, you can get new features. It's just 1…”
Evans: MacBook Touch Bar is powered by an Apple Watch chip
“The technology underneath it is an OLED screen, and the chip That's driving it, apparently, is actually Apple Watch, basically.”
Sinofsky: Legacy desktop developers will not rewrite software for Touch Bar
“Cause they're actually no one doing that. All of those Are on the back of their S curve, and they're in sustain mode, and the last thing they're going to do is rewrite them”
Evans: The MacBook is at the top of its S-curve
“The MacBook isn't changing what it is. The MacBook has been, is at the top of the S curve. This is better propellers on your Lockheed Constellation.”
Evans: Adobe Creative Cloud has 7 million subscribers vs. 1.5B PCs
“There's only seven million people subscribing to Creative Cloud, and there's one and a half billion PCs out there.”
Sinofsky: Average corporate employee spends under half their time at a desk
“Like the average person Employee at a company now is spending less than half their time at a desk, and when you start looking at the time that they're spending on working, like, it's all shifting to mobile.”