Jan 2, 2019 · 17m · a16z
a16z Podcast | Self-Driving Cars — Where Are We, Really?
Qasar Younis · 5m spoken Taggart Matheson · 4m spoken James Wu · 3m spoken Frank Chen · 2m spoken Sonal Chokshi · 31s spoken
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this panel discussion moderated by a16z Partner Frank Chen, industry experts evaluate the realistic timelines, core technical bottlenecks, regulatory hurdles, and profound societal impacts surrounding the development and adoption of autonomous vehicles.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. The host holds 3.1% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
The host as informed peer 2.2 Guest teaching 1.7 Guest disagreement 0.8 The host pushing back 1.2
speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 10:10 Rejecting Phone-Car Software OTA Equivalence
Qasar firmly reframes the host's comparison between smartphone software updates and autonomous vehicle updates, insisting that public safety requires explicit regulatory baselines.
Hardest push from the host ▶ 9:54 Frank Challenges Guest on Over-The-Air RegulationFrank directly questions Qasar's premise on government involvement, highlighting that smartphone operating systems receive frequent over-the-air updates without regulatory bodies.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 10:10 Explaining Zero-Tolerance for P-Zero Bugs in AVsQasar educates the host on how standard tech software bug-patching models fail in robotics, where software failures directly result in physical fatalities.
The host holds their own ▶ 5:52 Synthesizing AV Personalization as New Consumer Buying CriteriaFrank demonstrates domain knowledge by synthesizing Taggart's Stranger Things anecdote into an insight about how software memory will replace mechanical feel as the primary auto buying criterion.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The host as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The host pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected Timelines for Autonomous Vehicle Adoption | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | The host opens with high-level prompt questions about AV timelines and bottlenecks. The guests respond collaboratively, detailing technical, sensor, and operational challenges without any host challenge. | |
| Unforeseen Societal and Lifestyle Impacts | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | The host prompts guests to look beyond safety/convenience benefits. The host briefly synthesizes Taggart's media example into a thesis on changing consumer automotive buying criteria. | |
| Tele-Operations and Remote Fleet Management | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | The host notes observing startups working on remote driving and asks if tele-operations will persist. Guests provide technical breakdowns of tele-ops latency, edge cases, and security vectors. | |
| Regulation and Over-the-Air Update Standards | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | The host explicitly pushes back on Qasar's call for software update regulations by contrasting AV updates with unregulated phone OS updates. Qasar counters that software bugs in AVs carry fatal stakes, necessitating baseline standards. | |
| Addressing Driving Enthusiasts and Cultural Resistance | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | The host asks how guests respond to driving enthusiasts who resist autonomy. After Taggart uses a horse analogy, the host steps in with a quick follow-up extending the parallel. | |
| Cybersecurity Threats and Data Privacy Concerns | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | The host asks direct closing questions regarding cybersecurity risks and personal motivations. The panelists share insights on data privacy and saving human lives. |
Statements from this episode (20)
Younis: Fully autonomous cars will be available at dealerships by 2028
“And I think when the CT-Six launches with Super Cruise or the Tesla Autopilot, and then maybe 10 years from now we'll wake up and you have that option to go to the dealership and buy a car that does everything we think autonomy does.”
Wu: Major automakers plan to ship Level 4 vehicles by 2020-2021
“The major OEMs in Europe, US, and Japan, other places, if you look at their timetable, it's about twenty-twenty, twenty-twenty-one, they're gonna start shipping level four vehicles.”
Matheson: Autonomous vehicle sensor suites are currently economically infeasible
“If you look at the sensor suite on these vehicles, it's not economically feasible.”
Matheson: Autonomous vehicles will initially launch in small localized pockets
“What you're going to see over the next couple of years is small pockets of innovation where over time, more and more vehicles are going to be operating in greater situations in terms of level four.”
Matheson: No Company Has Achieved Level 4 or Level 5 Autonomous Driving
“First of all, no one's at true level five or even level four at this point, and to do that at scale in all different kinds of conditions from rain to snow, even in a geographically confined area at a point where you figured out the economics, I think is going …”
Wu: Talent Shortage Will Be Primary Bottleneck for Self-Driving Industry
“For me, I think the major bottleneck At this stage, it's probably talents. In the next few years. Because suddenly, you need a lot of robotic experts. A lot more computer science engineers, scientists. And this will be a bottleneck for current state.”
Wu: Autonomous vehicles will reduce crime rates via mobile surveillance
“Crime rate will drop, in my opinion, because basically every car will became a moving sensor, collecting tons of real-time information.”
James Wu: Parking spaces will be converted to housing due to self-driving cars
“And also the housing price probably gonna change, because people don't have to, like, pack together, and also all these parking space will become available space for housing.”
Qasar Younis: 100 Tier 1 automotive suppliers generate over $1B annually
“There's a hundred tier one suppliers right now that make over a billion in revenue a year.”
Qasar Younis: Autonomous vehicles will cause a bloodbath among Tier 1 suppliers
“I think the real bloodbath in this ecosystem is not going to be at the manufacturer's level because consumers have some affiliation to, like, a Tesla vehicle or, like, a Mercedes-Benz, etc. It happens at the tier ones, but where there's that destruction, there…”
Frank Chen: Half a dozen startups are working on remote driving technology
“I have seen now probably half a dozen startups that are working on basically remote driving, whether it's remote driving a car or remote driving a truck, on the assumption that the algorithms won't be able to figure out what to do in all cases.”
Matheson: Tele-operators will assist scene understanding, not directly drive
“I don't think they're going to be driving the car. I would almost argue that it helps the car understand the scenario or the scene, and then leave it up to the vehicle to then do that navigation and motion control.”
Younis: Tele-ops will serve commercial fleets over passenger cars
“I think tele-ops is going to be a critical part of that software infrastructure. I think less in the traditional passenger space. I think those edge cases relatively are less than if you're doing, like, automated construction equipment.”
Younis: Tele-ops startups will evolve into fleet management companies
“Ultimately, I think those companies will become fleet management companies, but yeah, I think it's gonna happen without a doubt.”
Younis: Autonomous Vehicle Regulation Must Target Long-Tail Players Over Established Brands
“The professional quote unquote companies that have brands that have so much riding on it that can't afford to have a real issue, that's not the problem. It's a long tail. It's like fintech regulation. It's not regulating necessarily the Goldman's and Morgan St…”
Younis: Autonomous Vehicles Cannot Tolerate Post-Deployment Bug Fixes Used in Apps
“Maps is a pretty sophisticated product, but we would do, like, updates where we'd have P-zero bugs introduced into, like, the public domain, and we'd immediately fix those. You can't do that in autonomous vehicles.”
Younis: Manual car driving will remain a viable hobby for decades
“The second thing I would say is, the reality is, it's not that we're gonna take away people's cars. I like to go to the track, it's a hobby of mine, and I don't think that in the duration of my life is going away. And so the people who are really into cars, I …”
Wu: Rural areas will require human drivers for a long time
“And also, I think for self-driving cars it will heavily rely on data, especially mapping data. So, I think for certain space, like rural regions or tough road, and people seldom drive, we don't have enough data there, it's probably still need human drivers the…”
Matheson: Over 90% of vehicle accidents can be avoided with autonomous driving
“Ninety-some-odd percent of vehicle accidents can be avoided, and so I think this is a huge opportunity for us to change that.”
Younis: Automotive Fatalities Equal a Boeing 747 Crashing Daily
“The number is something like a seven 47 falling out of the sky every day, and everyone dying. That's the equivalent of how many people die, and, like, if that happened for three or four days in any other, like, in the air transportation industry, we would land…”