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Feb 6, 2023 · 25m · a16z

AI & The Future of Modern Warfare

Brandon Tseng · 7m spoken Brian Schimpf · 6m spoken Adam Bry · 4m spoken
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At the a16z American Dynamism Summit, defense technology leaders discuss how artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, and software iteration are transforming modern military strategy, force ratios, and battlefield engagements. The panel highlights operational realities from Ukraine, the strategic necessity of electronic warfare resilience, and the urgent reform required in government procurement.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →

The host as informed peer 2.6 Guest teaching 3.4 Guest disagreement 1.2 The host pushing back 1.2
05100:0010:0020:000:00–3:24 · The host as informed peer 2/10 Introductory Visual Montage, Legal Disclosures, and Event Title The moderator introduces the speakers and invites quick introductory overviews from each CEO. The tone is introductory and collaborative as each guest briefly outlines their company's core defense and civilian products.3:24–10:48 · The host as informed peer 4/10 Identifying Strategic Military Priorities for AI Adoption The host distinguishes between generic Washington AI buzzwords and actual military priorities. Guests Brian Schimpf and Brandon Tseng detail tactical AI capabilities like OODA loop acceleration, electronic warfare resiliency, and autonomy pillars.10:48–20:02 · The host as informed peer 4/10 Human-in-the-Loop Integration and Autonomous Operator Ratios The host asks probing questions about operator ratios and whether the Department of Defense is adequately funding software innovation. Brian Schimpf candidly counters optimistic assumptions about government procurement models and software spending.20:02–25:28 · The host as informed peer 3/10 Battlefield Insights from Ukraine: Electronic Warfare and Security The host reframes the discussion to immediate battlefield realities in Ukraine. The guests provide valuable tactical insights regarding electronic jamming, distributed lower-cost drone swarms, and vulnerability issues with Chinese DJI platforms.25:28–25:34 · The host as informed peer 0/10 Panel Conclusion and Final Event Branding Brief panel wrap-up, thanking the guests, and closing applause with no substantive host or guest engagement.0:00–3:24 · Guest teaching 1/10 Introductory Visual Montage, Legal Disclosures, and Event Title The moderator introduces the speakers and invites quick introductory overviews from each CEO. The tone is introductory and collaborative as each guest briefly outlines their company's core defense and civilian products.3:24–10:48 · Guest teaching 5/10 Identifying Strategic Military Priorities for AI Adoption The host distinguishes between generic Washington AI buzzwords and actual military priorities. Guests Brian Schimpf and Brandon Tseng detail tactical AI capabilities like OODA loop acceleration, electronic warfare resiliency, and autonomy pillars.10:48–20:02 · Guest teaching 6/10 Human-in-the-Loop Integration and Autonomous Operator Ratios The host asks probing questions about operator ratios and whether the Department of Defense is adequately funding software innovation. Brian Schimpf candidly counters optimistic assumptions about government procurement models and software spending.20:02–25:28 · Guest teaching 5/10 Battlefield Insights from Ukraine: Electronic Warfare and Security The host reframes the discussion to immediate battlefield realities in Ukraine. The guests provide valuable tactical insights regarding electronic jamming, distributed lower-cost drone swarms, and vulnerability issues with Chinese DJI platforms.25:28–25:34 · Guest teaching 0/10 Panel Conclusion and Final Event Branding Brief panel wrap-up, thanking the guests, and closing applause with no substantive host or guest engagement.0:00–3:24 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Introductory Visual Montage, Legal Disclosures, and Event Title The moderator introduces the speakers and invites quick introductory overviews from each CEO. The tone is introductory and collaborative as each guest briefly outlines their company's core defense and civilian products.3:24–10:48 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Identifying Strategic Military Priorities for AI Adoption The host distinguishes between generic Washington AI buzzwords and actual military priorities. Guests Brian Schimpf and Brandon Tseng detail tactical AI capabilities like OODA loop acceleration, electronic warfare resiliency, and autonomy pillars.10:48–20:02 · Guest disagreement 3/10 Human-in-the-Loop Integration and Autonomous Operator Ratios The host asks probing questions about operator ratios and whether the Department of Defense is adequately funding software innovation. Brian Schimpf candidly counters optimistic assumptions about government procurement models and software spending.20:02–25:28 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Battlefield Insights from Ukraine: Electronic Warfare and Security The host reframes the discussion to immediate battlefield realities in Ukraine. The guests provide valuable tactical insights regarding electronic jamming, distributed lower-cost drone swarms, and vulnerability issues with Chinese DJI platforms.25:28–25:34 · Guest disagreement 0/10 Panel Conclusion and Final Event Branding Brief panel wrap-up, thanking the guests, and closing applause with no substantive host or guest engagement.0:00–3:24 · The host pushing back 0/10 Introductory Visual Montage, Legal Disclosures, and Event Title The moderator introduces the speakers and invites quick introductory overviews from each CEO. The tone is introductory and collaborative as each guest briefly outlines their company's core defense and civilian products.3:24–10:48 · The host pushing back 1/10 Identifying Strategic Military Priorities for AI Adoption The host distinguishes between generic Washington AI buzzwords and actual military priorities. Guests Brian Schimpf and Brandon Tseng detail tactical AI capabilities like OODA loop acceleration, electronic warfare resiliency, and autonomy pillars.10:48–20:02 · The host pushing back 3/10 Human-in-the-Loop Integration and Autonomous Operator Ratios The host asks probing questions about operator ratios and whether the Department of Defense is adequately funding software innovation. Brian Schimpf candidly counters optimistic assumptions about government procurement models and software spending.20:02–25:28 · The host pushing back 2/10 Battlefield Insights from Ukraine: Electronic Warfare and Security The host reframes the discussion to immediate battlefield realities in Ukraine. The guests provide valuable tactical insights regarding electronic jamming, distributed lower-cost drone swarms, and vulnerability issues with Chinese DJI platforms.25:28–25:34 · The host pushing back 0/10 Panel Conclusion and Final Event Branding Brief panel wrap-up, thanking the guests, and closing applause with no substantive host or guest engagement.

speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%0:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%15:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%15:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%18:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%18:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%21:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%21:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%24:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%24:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 15:22 Brian Schimpf dismisses government funding reality

When asked if the government is putting money where its mouth is regarding AI, Brian Schimpf immediately and bluntly responds 'No, obviously' before critiquing defense software budgeting.

 Hardest push from the host ▶ 20:02 Host challenges panel title framing

The host explicitly rejects the panel's hypothetical forward-looking title to insist they focus on present, real-time warfare dynamics in Ukraine.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 15:35 Defense software business model breakdown

Brian Schimpf breaks down how traditional defense procurement fails to support software-driven hardware platforms compared to modern commercial tech practices.

 The host holds their own ▶ 3:24 Host critiques Washington AI buzzword usage

The host demonstrates strong policy insight by contrasting Washington politicians' superficial adoption of 'AI' with actual operational military requirements.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicThe host as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementThe host pushing backWhy
Introductory Visual Montage, Legal Disclosures, and Event Title 2110 The moderator introduces the speakers and invites quick introductory overviews from each CEO. The tone is introductory and collaborative as each guest briefly outlines their company's core defense and civilian products.
Identifying Strategic Military Priorities for AI Adoption 4511 The host distinguishes between generic Washington AI buzzwords and actual military priorities. Guests Brian Schimpf and Brandon Tseng detail tactical AI capabilities like OODA loop acceleration, electronic warfare resiliency, and autonomy pillars.
Human-in-the-Loop Integration and Autonomous Operator Ratios 4633 The host asks probing questions about operator ratios and whether the Department of Defense is adequately funding software innovation. Brian Schimpf candidly counters optimistic assumptions about government procurement models and software spending.
Battlefield Insights from Ukraine: Electronic Warfare and Security 3512 The host reframes the discussion to immediate battlefield realities in Ukraine. The guests provide valuable tactical insights regarding electronic jamming, distributed lower-cost drone swarms, and vulnerability issues with Chinese DJI platforms.
Panel Conclusion and Final Event Branding 0000 Brief panel wrap-up, thanking the guests, and closing applause with no substantive host or guest engagement.

Statements from this episode (10)

Assertion Not checkable as stated
Skydio has hundreds of drones operating daily in Ukraine, says Adam Bry
“So we've delivered thousands of systems to the Army, to the Marines to allies, and we have hundreds of systems now being used every day in Ukraine.”
Adam Bry Feb 6, 2023 ▶ 1:09
Assertion Supported
Shield AI is deploying its AI pilot across quadcopters, VBATs, and fighter jets
“We have our AI pilot on a small quadcopter that goes inside buildings ahead of Special Operations Forces and infantry. We are putting our AI pilot on a medium-sized aircraft called the VBAT that provides an operational level of intelligence, surveillance, and …”
Brandon Tseng Feb 6, 2023 ▶ 2:08
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Anduril has hundreds of AI-powered systems deployed in the field
“We've got hundreds of systems deployed in the field today using a variety of AI technologies in, in often very straightforward ways to, you know, simplify the lives of operators as much as possible.”
Brian Schimpf Feb 6, 2023 ▶ 3:09
Insight
Brian Schimpf: AI enables military deployment of 100,000 autonomous systems
“AI kind of broadly gets you this ability to scale up to 100,000 of systems Being able to do a much, much higher volume of activity that's much harder to defeat, it's much harder to counter and you can conduct, you know, warfare in a much more precise and large…”
Brian Schimpf Feb 6, 2023 ▶ 5:31
Insight
Tseng: AI's key defense domains are autonomy, battle management, hypersonics, space
“In my view, I think there's really four fundamental areas in the defense, you know, space in modern warfare where it's going to be a critical game changer, and I can speak probably relatively intelligently to two of them. And so the four areas being autonomy, …”
Brandon Tseng Feb 6, 2023 ▶ 7:35
Assertion Supported
Brandon Tseng: Adversaries actively jam U.S. drone GPS and communications
“Russia, China Iran, North Korea, they are building up their electronic warfare capabilities. They are jamming GPS. They are jamming communications, which are traditional assets that we've become so reliant on, our predator drones, our, you know, our smaller ve…”
Brandon Tseng Feb 6, 2023 ▶ 8:16
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Adam Bry: Single human operators will eventually control thousands of military drones
“You can have one operator responsible for multiple drones. Five, 1000, and eventually maybe someday thousands. And I think that's a super, super powerful operating paradigm.”
Adam Bry Feb 6, 2023 ▶ 12:29
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Schimpf: DoD spends far less on software than commercial tech firms
“When you look at, like, how these things play out in terms of, like, what do modern technology companies spend? Take a Tesla, take any of these companies that are building, you know, kind of modern hardware, software enabled systems. You know, what's the perce…”
Brian Schimpf Feb 6, 2023 ▶ 15:39
Insight
Bry: Tech firms should bear R&D risk while military buys products
“I think Andrew in particular has done a nice job of trying to sort of like advocate for this new model where companies should be taking product development risk and the government should be focused on, on, on just buying the best product, which is, is difficul…”
Adam Bry Feb 6, 2023 ▶ 18:46
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Schimpf: Standard drone communication links fail under electronic jamming in Ukraine
“Nearly every drone company that's been deployed into there has had the same reaction. Very little works on that communication link. You gotta actually very quickly innovate on it and solve these problems.”
Brian Schimpf Feb 6, 2023 ▶ 21:54
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