Oct 6, 2023 · 38m · a16z
The Evolution of the Satellite Economy
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of the a16z Podcast, Astranis Co-founder and CEO John Gedmark discusses the macroeconomic and technological forces driving the modern commercial space revolution. He explains how Astranis's MicroGEO satellite technology solves global internet connectivity challenges and provides resilient infrastructure for national security.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →
The host as informed peer 2.7 Guest teaching 2.9 Guest disagreement 0.0 The host pushing back 0.0
speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 23:45 Emphatic reframe on the connectivity crisis
In a uniformly collaborative interview, Gedmark's most energetic stance is pointing out how astounding it is that four billion people still lack internet access and that the problem actually grew worse despite tech advances.
Hardest push from the host ▶ 31:23 Reframing slow iteration as a security threatThe host directly intervenes to sharpen Gedmark's argument, stating that the satellite industry's lack of rapid hardware iteration represents a direct national security vulnerability.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 28:50 KASAT cyberattack case studyGedmark educates the host with a real-world military conflict lesson, explaining how Russia disabled Ukraine's primary communications satellite on day one of the invasion.
The host holds their own ▶ 20:50 Highway lane analogyThe host demonstrates strong conceptual insight by introducing a highway capacity analogy to describe bandwidth demand, which Gedmark praises and adopts for his own pitch.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The host as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The host pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guest Profile: John Gedmark and the MicroGEO Mission | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | The host opens with context on Gedmark's background founding the Commercial Spaceflight Federation in 2006. Gedmark warmly explains the early days of private spaceflight and the XPRIZE foundation. | |
| The Three Eras of Spaceflight & Commercial Transition | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | The host asks Gedmark to detail the transition from government shuttle dominance to modern private startups. Gedmark outlines the three eras of spaceflight, and the host summarizes the drivers behind this shift. | |
| Technological Enablers of Satellite Miniaturization | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | Gedmark educates the host on key technological enablers like lithium-ion batteries replacing lead-acid batteries. The host asks for a practical size comparison, which Gedmark illustrates using everyday appliances versus school buses. | |
| Why Geostationary Orbit (GEO) Matters | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | Gedmark details why geostationary orbit (GEO) is lucrative yet technically challenging due to Van Allen radiation belts. The host prompts with probing questions about why competitors avoided this orbit. | |
| Early Astranis Days & Custom Engineering for GEO | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | The host demonstrates strong conceptual expertise by offering an extra lane on the highway analogy to describe internet capacity expansion. Gedmark praises the analogy and says he plans to steal it. | |
| Mass Manufacturing & Satellite Scaling Economics | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | The host brings specific knowledge of the Philippines' geography and cites statistics about four billion people lacking internet access. Gedmark explains why laying fiber hits physical and economic limits. | |
| Government Demand for Satellite Comms & National Security | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | The host asks how defense buyers evaluate commercial space solutions. Gedmark explains how the Space Force requires reliable multi-channel communication pathways. | |
| Swarm Satellite Architecture vs. Traditional Big GEO Vulnerabilities | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | Gedmark provides a detailed case study on how Russia disabled Ukraine's primary KASAT satellite on day one of the invasion via cyberattack, illustrating the vulnerability of legacy single-satellite systems. | |
| The Iteration Gap in Satellite Technology | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | The host synthesizes Gedmark's argument into a sharp framing: that lack of tech iteration is itself a national security threat. She also contrasts shrinking consumer electronics with growing satellite sizes, which Gedmark fully validates. | |
| Future Space Infrastructure & The Lunar Economy | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | The host invites Gedmark to paint a vision of the next 10-20 years in space. Gedmark outlines potential lunar infrastructure, including dedicated moon GPS networks and cargo transport. | |
| Astranis Rocket Launches & Team Milestones | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | A warm wrap-up where the host references emotional launch footage of the team. Both agree that private spaceflight has entered a new golden era. |
Statements from this episode (20)
Gedmark: The technology that won the XPRIZE became Virgin Galactic
“And the company ended up winning that, that, that group and that technology ended up becoming what is now Perger Galactic.”
Gedmark: Early space trade groups were controlled by traditional defense contractors
“And all the organizations at the time were basically run by the major aerospace and defense companies.”
Gedmark: Space Shuttle era cost-plus contracts entrenched legacy defense contractors
“Then we entered into this era in the eighties, basically with the space shuttle, things got very entrenched with these cost plus contracts. And the major aerospace defense contractors were basically able to lock in, you know, these programs at a cost of billio…”
Gedmark: Commercial space emerged from dot-com wealth and Space Shuttle retirement
“So you really had all these ingredients of basically private individuals who had made enough money in the dot-com boom and had this passion for space to go and take a run at it. On the government side, you had the retirement of the special Coming up on the hor…”
Gedmark: Astranis builds micro-satellites slightly larger than a mini fridge
“Our satellites at Astronus are a little bit larger than that. Similar class you know, what we call micro satellites.”
Gedmark: Traditional satellites historically cost hundreds of millions and match bus sizes
“The big satellites that historically cost several hundred million dollars each You know, they are the size of a school bus, if not like a double decker, you know, big, big red London double decker bus.”
Gedmark: GEO orbit historically received the bulk of satellite capital
“Historically, GEO is actually the most valuable orbit. That is where the bulk of money has been spent to put satellites into orbit.”
Gedmark: Broadcast satellite TV was one of space's biggest moneymakers
“One of the biggest moneymakers in in, in the history of all of space was broadcast satellite TV. And that is, that was all done with these large, very expensive geo satellites.”
Gedmark: Single GEO satellites offer cheaper national broadband than LEO constellations
“Once you're up, any asset you can get up in that high orbit is just becomes this incredibly valuable thing because you can park it over a country, Or part of the world and provide, you know, a service with just that one satellite. So it ends up being this like…”
Gedmark: Off-the-shelf space hardware failed GEO specs, forcing custom components
“A lot of the components that you could buy were really designed for LEO satellites. And once we dug into it, would just not work for us in GEO, you know, and that's, you know, that's not through any fault of the of the vendors. It was just designed for a diffe…”
Gedmark: Global fiber optic infrastructure has essentially reached its maximum physical reach
“I think we have essentially reached the people we're going to reach with fiber.”
Gedmark: Internet bandwidth demand is effectively unlimited at low enough prices
“On the other end of the spectrum, if you put it up at a low enough price, then the demand becomes almost effectively unlimited. I mean, people will, at a low enough price point, people will consume all the internet bandwidth that is available and then, you kno…”
Gedmark: The global population without internet access has increased to four billion
“People used to talk about the other three billion that don't have access to the internet. When, you know, the internet was first really taking off. Now it's the other four billion. The problem actually got worse.”
Gedmark: Space industry is the only viable solution for global connectivity
“It is on us in the space industry to solve this problem. I do not see any other means solving it.”
Gedmark: Successful space startups inevitably attract US national security interest
“A company doing new technology for space for aerospace, you know, there's by almost by definition, there are national security implications of what we do. So there is almost always you know, I think if you're doing things right, there's almost always going to …”
Gedmark: Roughly a dozen military communication satellites cover the world
“The, you know, the military communication satellites, I think there's roughly a dozen that cover the whole world, so they're spread around the whole world.”
Gedmark: Russia severed Ukraine's communications on day one via satellite cyberattack
“The Russians took out that satellite on day one of the invasion with a massive cyber attack. And just in one fell swoop, cut off comms across, you know, almost all of Ukraine because they've been very heavily reliant on just this one satellite.”
Gedmark: Geostationary satellites failed to adopt smaller, rapidly iterable hardware
“In some ways satellite technology is just one of these last, especially in geo, it's just one of these last places where, We did not move to smaller hardware that you could build faster and iterate on more quickly and do a faster refresh of technology, right?”
Gedmark: Traditional satellites keep getting bigger instead of shrinking over time
“If anything, they've gotten bigger and bigger over time instead of smaller and smaller. They somehow, you know, got, found themselves in this, you know, part of the design space where they got, they fell into this, you know, local optima. Descending down this …”
Gedmark: Future lunar bases will require a dedicated GPS system for navigation
“The moon will need its own GPS system. You're on the lunar surface. You want to know where you are. Same thing as on the earth. You want to be able to just pull up, you know Google maps, navigate back to your lunar base, right? And then have that have that pos…”