Dec 17, 2023 · 14m · a16z

2024 Big Ideas: Anime Games Go Mainstream with Robin Guo

Robin Guo · 9m spoken Steph Smith · 4m spoken

0:00 / 0:00

gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions

In this episode of the a16z Podcast, partner Robin Guo explores why anime games are going mainstream in 2024, analyzing their unique monetization models, massive demographic expansion, and the technological opportunities created by AI and XR for new developers.

Chapters · click to jump

1 statement ▾

Guo: miHoYo generated over $3.8B in 2022 from Genshin and Honkai open →

1 statement ▾

Anime is defined by its fanbase, not country of origin open →

2 statements ▾

Guo: Gacha mechanics drive high ARPU in anime games open →

Anime games achieve $30-$50 ARPU, up to 3x higher than standard games open →

1 statement ▾

Guo: 50% of millennials and 70% of Gen Z watch anime open →

1 statement ▾

Guo: Genshin Impact cost several hundred million dollars to build open →

2 statements ▾

Niji Journey is the most common AI tool for anime art open →

Guo: Generative AI will lower anime game production costs open →

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →

The host as informed peer 1.6 Guest teaching 4.4 Guest disagreement 0.2 The host pushing back 0.0

speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

Sharpest disagreement ▶ 3:35 Reframing rigid genre definitions

Robin gently pushes back on rigid definitions of anime by pointing out that Western shows like Avatar The Last Airbender and RWBY are considered anime by fans.

Hardest push from the host ▶ 7:31 Host clarifies gacha definition for audience

The host interrupts the flow to explicitly define gacha capsule machines, ensuring listeners stay grounded in the technical terminology.

Biggest teaching moment ▶ 5:56 Deep dive into gacha monetization mechanics

Robin thoroughly educates the host on gacha mechanics, pity systems, content creation dynamics, and why ARPU reaches $30 to $50 compared to standard mobile games.

The host holds their own ▶ 5:14 Host frames discussion with high-revenue stats

The host demonstrates strong preparation by highlighting surprising data showing anime games pull tens of millions per month rather than per year.

the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each

Topic	The host as informed peer	Guest teaching	Guest disagreement	Why
Legal Disclaimer and Disclosures	1	4	0	The host opens with a foundational question asking what constitutes anime versus Webtoons. Robin educates the host on specific visual features like hard lines, enlarged eyes, and blocked colors, noting that genre boundaries are fluid.
Gameplay Mechanics and Gacha Monetization	3	5	1	The host cites high monthly revenue data and asks how anime games monetize differently. Robin provides a detailed breakdown of gacha mechanics, pity systems, and why ARPU reaches three times traditional mobile games before the host steps in to clarify the vending machine origin.
Mainstream Cultural Shift and Fanbase Dynamics	1	4	0	The host asks why mainstream investors slept on anime. Robin explains the shift from niche otaku culture to mainstream adoption, sharing data on millennial and Gen Z viewing habits and comparing it to gaming's mainstream moment with Fortnite.
Industry Leaders, miHoYo, and Opportunities for Developers	2	5	0	The host asks about market leaders like EA, Tencent, and miHoYo while seeking pronunciation confirmation. Robin gently confirms the pronunciation, details miHoYo's studio origins, and explains how understanding character archetypes enables smaller developers to compete.
Impact of Emerging Tech: AI and XR in Anime	1	4	0	The host prompts Robin on how AI and XR will shape the next wave of anime. Robin outlines concrete AI use cases like Niji Journey for 2D asset generation while offering a balanced, cautious view on XR's future.

Statements from this episode (8)

Assertion Partly supported

Guo: miHoYo generated over $3.8B in 2022 from Genshin and Honkai

“For instance, Mahoyo generated over 3.8 billion dollars from releases like Genshin Impact and Hawkeye Star Rail in twenty-twenty-two.”

Robin Guo Dec 17, 2023 ▶ 2:32

Insight

Anime is defined by its fanbase, not country of origin

“There's no real, like, hard and fast lines for, like, what defines anime, right? So some people consider Avatar The Last Airbender, which is, like, a American cartoon, or RWBY, which is another American cartoon anime too. And so, like, I think the genre is, li…”

Robin Guo Dec 17, 2023 ▶ 3:41

Insight

Guo: Gacha mechanics drive high ARPU in anime games

“The one thing that's distinguishing about anime games in particular, which tends to drive the high ARPU is the gacha component.”

Robin Guo Dec 17, 2023 ▶ 6:12

Assertion Supported

Anime games achieve $30-$50 ARPU, up to 3x higher than standard games

“And so that's why you see like art proves as high as like, 3040, 50 dollars, whereas, like, some other games, ARPU might be more in the, like, 10 to 20 dollar range, so it's like, you know, three acts for, you know, potentially two to three acts what, like, a …”

Robin Guo Dec 17, 2023 ▶ 7:17

Assertion Supported

Guo: 50% of millennials and 70% of Gen Z watch anime

“If you look at the stats, I think something like 50% of millennials, and now, like, 70% of Gen Z watch anime, and so, like, more and more young people are watching, converting to the medium”

Robin Guo Dec 17, 2023 ▶ 8:48

Assertion Supported

Guo: Genshin Impact cost several hundred million dollars to build

“And eventually they built up the Tekken capabilities to build Genshin, Which is now a billion dollar scale, but took, like, several hundred million dollars to make”

Robin Guo Dec 17, 2023 ▶ 11:14

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Niji Journey is the most common AI tool for anime art

“You can look at things like Niji journey, which is a fork of mid journey and probably the most common anime to the art asset generation right now.”

Robin Guo Dec 17, 2023 ▶ 13:04

Prediction Held up

Guo: Generative AI will lower anime game production costs

“Many people will be generating both like Mods and fan art, but also people will be using this in the production setting to get anime games out for cheaper and getting them out at, like, very high quality. So I think that will definitely happen for sure.”

Robin Guo Dec 17, 2023 ▶ 13:12

2024 Big Ideas: Anime Games Go Mainstream with Robin Guo

How this conversation actually went

Statements from this episode (8)

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