Apr 11, 2025 · 43m · a16z
Drone Warfare: The New Rules of Combat Are Here
0:00 / 0:00
▶ Watch on YouTube →
gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
Hosted by a16z American Dynamism, this panel features Shield AI CEO Ryan Tseng and Skydio CEO Adam Bry discussing how artificial intelligence, autonomous drone swarms, and rapid software iteration are fundamentally reshaping modern defense and global geopolitical competition. The discussion highlights the urgent need for U.S. procurement reform, domestic manufacturing scale, and software dominance to overcome adversary mass and secure democratic leadership in future warfare.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →
The host as informed peer 2.5 Guest teaching 5.0 Guest disagreement 1.4 The host pushing back 0.8
speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 23:04 Debunking Drone Light Shows as Combat Swarms
Adam Bry directly rejects the host's premise that Chinese drone light shows demonstrate military swarm superiority, noting light shows rely on GPS and open comms that are useless under electronic warfare.
Hardest push from the host ▶ 32:49 Challenging Autonomous Human-Out-of-the-Loop EthicsMatt Cronin directly presses the guests on whether autonomous drones mean ceding lethal decision authority to software, refusing to accept general claims of autonomy safety without addressing human control.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 19:02 Exposing the Three-Orders-of-Magnitude Scale GapAdam Bry educates the host on the vast disparity between US defense procurement (single-digit thousands) and real battlefield consumption in Ukraine (millions annually).
The host holds their own ▶ 39:34 Geopolitical Framing Citing Fukuyama's End of HistoryMatt Cronin demonstrates high expertise by referencing Francis Fukuyama and contextualizing autonomous tech within competing global systems of government rather than mere technical features.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The host as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The host pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Video Highlights and High-Stakes Defense Perspectives | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | Matt Cronin opens the conversation by asking both founders what drew them to drone technology before it was seen as military tech. Ryan Tseng explains his personal background and his SEAL brother's influence in founding Shield AI. | |
| Adam Bry on Skydio's Evolution to Defense | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | Adam Bry details Skydio's evolution from MIT academic research to consumer products and eventually winning Army programs of record. The dynamic is collaborative and informational. | |
| Academic Research Foundations and Shared History | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | Matt Cronin notes how drones have reshaped modern warfare in Ukraine, prompting Ryan Tseng to explain the shift toward distributed, lethal force structures. | |
| Asymmetric Cost Advantage and Tactical Disruption | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | Matt Cronin highlights cheap quadcopters disabling expensive armored tanks and asks about Chinese manufacturing advantages. Adam Bry explains the industrial asymmetry and domestic policy challenges. | |
| Navigating National Security's Max-Q Moment with AI | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | Ryan Tseng introduces the concept of a national security Max-Q moment, contrasting pure industrial mass with software-driven effect and autonomy. | |
| The Next Wave of Advanced AI and Autonomous Swarms | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | Matt Cronin cites Vice President Vance's recent remarks on procurement reform and re-shoring manufacturing. Ryan Tseng responds with policy recommendations focused on bureaucratic mobilization. | |
| Scaling Drone Production and Budgetary Reallocation | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | Adam Bry exposes a massive scale disparity, pointing out Ukraine uses millions of drones annually while US military programs order only single-digit thousands. Ryan Tseng lightheartedly suggests adding zeros to procurement numbers. | |
| Drone Light Shows Versus Combat Swarms | 4 | 7 | 3 | 2 | Matt Cronin presses on whether Chinese record-breaking drone light shows signal swarm superiority. Adam Bry rejects the comparison, explaining light shows rely entirely on vulnerable GPS and unjammed communications irrelevant to real combat. | |
| Shield AI's Mission to License AI Pilots | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Matt Cronin inquires about drone performance in electronic warfare environments. Adam Bry candidly admits Skydio's first-generation drones failed in Ukraine due to unexpected jamming, forcing rapid visual-AI redesigns. | |
| V-BAT Software Iteration and Real-World Combat Impact | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | Ryan Tseng relates a dramatic field story about updating V-BAT software within 24 hours in Ukraine after immediate GPS loss, illustrating that modern warfare is defined by software iteration speed. | |
| Ethics, Game Theory, and Human-Machine Teaming | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | Matt Cronin directly challenges the guests on the ethics of autonomous weapons and ceding human authority to software. Adam Bry reframes the issue around game theory deterrence and precision versus collateral damage from unguided munitions. | |
| Geopolitical Stakes of Global AI Leadership | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | Matt Cronin provides strong synthesis, referencing Fukuyama's End of History and framing global AI dominance as a conflict between governance models. Adam Bry argues against over-regulating American AI capabilities. |
Statements from this episode (25)
Bry: Modern Military Conflict Is Becoming a Software-Writing Fight
“I think a modern conflict becomes basically like a software writing fight.”
Tseng Initially Thought Defense Tech Was a 'Stupid Business'
“And, you know, I thought it was an extraordinary mission. I told you earlier, I thought it was a stupid business. And so I wished him luck and, you know, suggested that he come up with a better business to make mission impact.”
Bry: Cheap Drones Can Destroy Multi-Million Dollar Military Hardware
“A system that costs a few thousand dollars can take out a system that costs a few million dollars.”
Bry Predicts US Adversaries Will Exploit Low-Cost Autonomous Drones
“The possibility of building very low-cost systems that are very capable and capable of delivering strikes or capable of maintaining surveillance is, is very real, and our adversaries are likely to take advantage of it.”
Bry: Outsourcing Consumer Electronics to China Was a Military Mistake
“And, you know, as a country, we basically outsource manufacturing to China. And I think that that was a, you know, a series of policy decisions, expediency on the part of business. That was a mistake from a military standpoint, because one of the major themes …”
Bry: Regions Building iPhones Hold the Ecosystem for Manufacturing Drones
“I always say, like, wherever they're building iPhones, they're gonna have a really good ecosystem for building drones and other kinds of electronics.”
Tseng: US Cannot Close Drone Manufacturing Gap With China Within a Decade
“I think that the industrial capacity of China is Fearsome. And try as we might, I think that's gonna be a very difficult thing to close out in one year or even a decade, and, you know, I, I'm an optimist, and, you know, I like to, I'll always like to believe t…”
Tseng: Physical Military Mass Alone Does Not Guarantee Effective Targeting
“There's a difference between mass and effect. And you know, simply like the world is big and targets are relatively small compared to the scale of the world. And it turns out that just throwing a bunch of mass down range, it can still be pretty hard to hit the…”
Bry: Most Drone Warfare in Ukraine Remains Manual or Simple Navigation
“The vast majority of what's happening in Ukraine is still basically one-to-one. Like you've got these FPV pilots who are expert operators who are flying the thing, or they're flying drones with like, with very limited kinds of, you know, pretty simple mission,…”
Bry: AI Autonomy and Swarming Will Transform Drone Warfare Within a Decade
“And I think that we are going to see over the next decade Another fundamental change as rather than having these drones animated by an operator on the ground or by like relatively simple algorithms on board, they become animated by really advanced autonomy and…”
Bry: Winning in Defense AI Is More Critical Than Hardware Scale
“You can't forget about the hardware and the manufacturing capacity. You need to be able to do that stuff, but winning on the AI front I think is, is even more important.”
Bry: Ukraine Consumes Millions of Small Drones Annually for Warfare
“If you look in the kind of space that we play, which are small, light quadcopters that weigh a few pounds that are kind of soldier-carried the Ukrainians today are using these things at the rate of millions per year, literally millions per year. It's the prima…”
Bry: U.S. Drone Procurement Lags Demand by Three Orders of Magnitude
“The U.S. Military, I think to their credit, has programs generally pointed in this direction but those programs are operating at the scale of thousands, like single-digit thousands. So we're literally off by, like, three orders of magnitude, I would argue, rel…”
Bry: Mass AI Drone Swarms Will Outperform Multi-Billion-Dollar Legacy Weapons
“Buying legacy exquisite systems that cost hundreds of millions of dollars, some cases billions of dollars, there's a trade-off between, like, one or two of something, or, you know, 10,000, or a 100,000, or a million drones, and, you know, if you just look into…”
Bry: Commercial Drone Light Show Technology Is Irrelevant in Modern Warfare
“So when you see the drone light shows, they're a hundred percent reliant on GPS. So they're using GPS to figure out where they are and to position themselves precisely. And they're a hundred percent reliant on a, like a comms link between all the drones all th…”
Tseng: Shield AI Will License AI Pilots to Defense Hardware Makers
“When we thought about the next 10 years, the question was, like, is the future really about Shield AI building the world's best AI pilot, or is it about making a contribution to the industrial base so that, you know, everybody that's building these systems You…”
Bry: Skydio's First Drone Generation Failed in Ukraine Battlefield Conditions
“Candidly, like, our first round of drones in Ukraine basically failed.”
Bry: U.S. Army Quadcopter Requirements Originally Omitted Electronic Warfare Capability
“Had built the system largely informed by the US Army's requirements for what they thought was important for a quadcopter in this space. And electronic warfare was just nowhere on that list.”
Tseng: Shield AI Updated Software in 24 Hours for HIMARS Strike
“In the span of 24 hours, the engineering team re-architected the stack to not use GPS at any point in the mission. We validated it at our Texas facilities, and then we pushed it forward, and 24 hours later the team took off and then conducted a demonstration t…”
Tseng: Deployment Speed Will Be Decisive Factor for Global Militaries
“It will be the pace of deployment that is the make or break for militaries around the world.”
Bry: Skydio Software Updates Can Take Up to Two Years to Deploy
“We've had the same experience where, like, sometimes it's taken us two years to push new software into deployed systems.”
Bry: Autonomous AI Strikes Cause Less Collateral Damage Than Unguided Bombs
“Oftentimes, you know, your choice if you want to take out a target is dropping a 500 or 2000 pound bomb, which is going to cause widespread destruction and a lot of collateral damage. And so, an AI system that might be using autonomy to, like, a pretty intense…”
Tseng: Human-Machine Teams Will Outperform Pure AI Systems for Several Years
“Maybe the good and true news right now is that I think human machine teams are far more effective than like machine only teams right now. And, you know, for the next, you know, several years, you know, I think that that'll continue to be true and maybe it's tr…”
Bry: Relinquishing Control Over Kinetic Weapon Outcomes Is Not a New Concept
“At the conceptual level, a lot of these things are less new than they seem. So like, you know, dropping a bomb in World War II, like once that thing leaves the bomber, it's autonomous. Now it's, you know, it's pretty dumb autonomy, but there's no, you know, hu…”
Bry: US AI Policy Is Rapidly Improving Under the New Administration
“In AI, and I think this is changing rapidly for the better with the new administration, you know, there was a lot of talk of, like safety and regulation, and we can't do this, and we can't have this many parameters, and if you use more than this much compute, …”